Just hours before UFC 317 kicks off, sharp action is shifting the board fast—especially in the main event. A viral video showing Charles Oliveira looking drained during his weight cut has triggered steam on Ilia Topuria, pushing his moneyline from minus four twenty-five to as high as minus five fifty. At the same time, public money is pounding Oliveira and other dogs across the card, setting up clear sharp vs. square splits heading into fight night.
This is your fight-week rundown from BetNow’s UFC sportsbook, where updated odds, prop movement, and expert betting angles meet. Whether you’re laddering KO props, live betting rounds, or locking in early line value, BetNow delivers the tools to bet smarter—not just follow hype.
Featured Fight Spotlight: Main Event – Topuria vs. Oliveira
Fighter Breakdown
| Fighter | Ilia Topuria | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Record (SU) | 16-0 (8-0 UFC) | 35-10 (23-10 UFC) |
| Style | Striker/Wrestler (Orthodox) | Muay Thai / BJJ (Orthodox) |
| Height | 5’7” | 5’10” |
| Reach | 69 inches | 74 inches |
| Age | 28 | 35 |
| Origin | Georgia | Brazil |
| Rankings | ESPN No. 2 P4P | UFC No. 2 Lightweight |
| Recent Form | 4-0 with 3 finishes | 2-2 in last 4 |
Line Movement: Opening vs. Current
- Opening Line: Topuria minus four twenty-five, Oliveira plus three ten
- Current Range: Topuria minus four fifty to minus five fifty, Oliveira plus three fifty to plus four hundred
- Public Moneyline: Ninety percent of bets on the dog Oliveira, but just sixty-three percent of the handle
Translation: The squares are riding the big-name underdog, while sharps are still laying the price on the favorite.
Key Prop Stats (BetNow Prop Market Insights)
Here’s where things get interesting for prop bettors looking to isolate value in the UFC 317 main event:
- Topuria by KO/TKO/DQ – Minus one seventy-five
This is the most popular prop in the market at BetNow, and for good reason. Topuria has elite boxing technique and eight career knockouts, including his recent destruction of Volkanovski. Given Oliveira’s historical vulnerability to power shots, especially early, this prop is priced as the most likely finish scenario—and it’s been one of the most bet props by unit volume this week. - Topuria by KO and Under four and a half rounds – Minus one thirty-five
For bettors who expect an early finish, this combo prop offers a slight edge in pricing compared to betting KO straight. It assumes Topuria gets the job done within the first three rounds, aligning with how he typically overwhelms opponents. If you’re fading Oliveira’s durability and see a blitz coming before the championship rounds, this is where the value sits. - Oliveira by Submission – Plus six fifty
This is the biggest public-side prop play of the week. At plus six fifty, it’s a classic dog-and-submission shot, especially given Oliveira’s UFC-record 21 submission wins. But be cautious—Topuria has never been submitted and has a strong wrestling base that could neutralize Oliveira’s jiu-jitsu. Still, for those backing the dog, this is the path most see him taking if he pulls the upset.
Fight Over One and a Half Rounds – Minus one thirty-five
This total is drawing balanced action, with bettors split on whether Topuria closes the show early or Oliveira survives into deeper waters. If you believe Oliveira can weather the early storm and possibly force Topuria to show his cardio at lightweight, this Over is worth a look. It also acts as a hedge-friendly prop if you’re playing both sides.
| Side | Public % | Handle % | Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oliveira (Dog) | 90% | 63% | Steam from square bettors chasing underdog value |
| Topuria (Favorite) | 10% | 37% | Sharps still backing power and pace |
“This is personal,” Oliveira said during media day.
Meanwhile, Anthony Smith noted: “If Topuria gets on top, it’s over.”
Line Movement Watch: Odds on the Move
| Fight | Opening Line | Current Line | Shift | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Topuria vs. Oliveira | Topuria -425 / Oliveira +310 | Topuria -455 / Oliveira +350 | ↑ modest | Public dog steam despite weight concerns |
| Pantoja vs. Kara-France | Pantoja -238 / Kara-France +195 | Pantoja -278 / Kara-France +210 | ↑ 9% | Pantoja’s wrestling vs. Kara-France’s suspect takedown defense |
| Talbott vs. Lima | Talbott -280 / Lima +230 | Lima -195 / Talbott +160 | reversed | Sharps hammering the prop and ML on Lima |
| Dariush vs. Moicano | Moicano -115 / Dariush +105 | Moicano -148 / Dariush +116 | ↑ 18% | Cappers fading Dariush’s recent knockouts and layoffs |
Note: Heavy line flips often indicate sharp play. Pay attention to Talbott–Lima—classic trap line reversal.
Fight Announcements & Card News
- Joshua Van steps in for Manel Kape vs. Brandon Royval (Late dog value?)
- Christopher Ewert replaces Sedriques Dumas (legal issue) vs. Jackson McVey
- No weigh-in misses reported, but a viral clip of Oliveira’s brutal cut has bettors spooked
Trap Watch: Don’t get caught overvaluing Oliveira’s past—he’s 2-2 SU in his last four and has been hurt in nearly every fight.
Hot Props & Exotic Markets at BetNow
| Prop Bet | Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Topuria by KO/TKO/DQ | -175 | Most popular Topuria prop by units wagered |
| Oliveira by Submission | +650 | Public dog special—squares piling on |
| Over 1.5 Rounds – Main Event | -135 | Bettors expect some early feeling-out |
| Royval–Van to Finish Inside Distance | -125 | Both guys are chaos merchants |
| Talbott R1 KO | +400 | Talbott backers still chasing early stoppage |
Educational Tip: Topuria has seven wins by sub, but the steam is all on his hands. That opens value for hedge plays on “Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision.”
Capper Tip of the Week: Fade the Hype, Bet the Matchup
This week’s betting edge? Don’t fall for the name.
Just because Charles Oliveira owns the UFC’s submission record doesn’t mean he covers when the matchup is wrong.
Topuria’s elite boxing, footwork, and grappling transitions are tailor-made to neutralize Oliveira’s wild entries. The value is shrinking—but he still may be worth laying the chalk.
When the public and sharps split—always follow the tape, not the name.
Futures Outlook: Lightweight & Flyweight in Flux
| Fighter | Division | Title Odds | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Topuria | Lightweight | TBD (favorite if wins) | Could chase Islam at Welterweight |
| Oliveira | Lightweight | +350 | Needs finish to reclaim status |
| Pantoja | Flyweight | -250 | 3 title defenses, seven-fight streak |
| Kara-France | Flyweight | +210 | Needs to keep fight standing |
BetNow futures board updates after each event — check the “Futures” tab on the sportsbook menu.
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Ready to Bet Smarter on UFC 317?
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