2026 NFL OPOY Odds: Offensive Player of the Year Betting
Jahmyr Gibbs opens as the early favorite for the 2026 NFL OPOY award, with BetNow tracking NFL OPOY odds on the full contender board through the offseason and the season.
Unlike MVP, this trophy typically goes to a running back or wide receiver rather than a quarterback, since voters usually hand a big QB season the MVP award instead. That split makes OPOY a true positional battle between the league’s top ball-carriers and pass-catchers.
This page covers the current odds, the top contenders, the positional history behind the award, and a few betting tips for the season ahead.
Current NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds 2026
These NFL OPOY odds move throughout the offseason and into the regular season as BetNow’s board adjusts to camp battles, depth chart news, and early performances. The board above shows whether the race is shaping up as a tight contest among a handful of favorites or a wide-open field. Compare where each contender sits, and place your bet whenever the value looks right.
2026 NFL OPOY Contenders
The list of NFL OPOY contenders 2026 bettors are watching closest right now runs about five names deep, and each brings a different path to the trophy.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Favorite)
The Jahmyr Gibbs OPOY odds sit at the top of the board heading into 2026. With Montgomery now in Houston, Detroit’s backfield touches funnel through one player instead of two, and Gibbs already averaged better than five yards a carry on a shared workload. Keep that efficiency while adding volume, and the counting stats take care of themselves. The risk is touch distribution — if Detroit leans on Isaiah Pacheco near the goal line, Gibbs loses some touchdown equity. Gibbs makes sense as a workload bet on a player who’s already shown he can produce at this level.
Bijan Robinson (Top Challenger)
Robinson led the league in scrimmage yards a year ago and stood among the five official OPOY finalists, yet still finished fourth in the voting, proof that raw production alone doesn’t seal this award. Atlanta’s offense runs through him in both phases, and another year of heavy touches keeps him close to the top of the NFL OPOY odds. The risk is a crowded Falcons passing attack pulling some shine away in big games. He offers real value if voters end up rewarding total touches over highlight plays.
Ja’Marr Chase (Safe Bet)
Chase gives the receiver side of the market its top representative, and a wide receiver has won OPOY in four of the last six seasons. Cincinnati’s passing volume and Chase’s target share put him in position for another monster year. The case rests on raw receiving numbers translating into a record-adjacent season. The risk is touchdown variance — receiving yards alone rarely win this award without scoring numbers to match, and a slow stretch in the red zone could drop him behind the rest of the receiver field. He stands out as the most dependable receiver bet in this field.
Puka Nacua (Value Play)
Nacua enters the year as one of the most efficient route-runners in the league, building on back-to-back elite grading seasons in Los Angeles. Target share married to efficiency is the case here — he doesn’t need empty volume because he wins so many contested catches already. The risk is health; missed time has dented his counting stats before, the kind of variable that adds real risk to any NFL futures betting pick on him. He’s worth tracking as long as he stays on the field for sixteen-plus games.
Christian McCaffrey (Longshot)
McCaffrey remains the most complete dual-threat back in the league when healthy, producing as both a runner and receiver in a way that keeps his ceiling higher than most backs on this board. The case rests on a rare three-down role that racks up scrimmage yards regardless of how San Francisco’s offense leans week to week. The risk, as in recent seasons, is durability over a full slate. A strong season from San Francisco’s quarterback would also pull some NFL MVP odds attention away from the backfield. He plays as a longer-odds value option if he stays healthy into December.
Our NFL OPOY Pick for 2026
For bettors asking who will win NFL OPOY 2026, Gibbs is the pick here, built on workload alone — a back who already produces at a near-elite clip now gets a season as the unquestioned lead option in Detroit’s backfield. The bigger his touch share grows, the more his counting numbers separate him from the field, and voters tend to reward backs who rack up both rushing and receiving production. The pick fails if Detroit’s offensive line regresses or if Pacheco carves out a real role in scoring situations.
For a value angle further down the board among the longer-shot NFL OPOY picks, a receiver sitting at +3000 or longer odds with a clear path to a target-share jump is worth a small stake — the WR side of this market has produced winners in four of the last six years, and longshots in that range occasionally hit when a breakout season arrives.
NFL OPOY History & Positional Trends
The OPOY award dates back to 1972, and outside of a handful of quarterback seasons, it has belonged almost entirely to running backs and wide receivers. That split is the single most useful fact for anyone tracking NFL OPOY history before placing a futures bet.
Running Back vs Wide Receiver — Who Wins OPOY?
Running backs have claimed this award more often than any other position, but receivers have surged in recent years — four of the last six winners played wide receiver. Saquon Barkley took it as a running back for the 2024 season, then Jaxon Smith-Njigba flipped it back to a receiver for 2025. That alternation matters for bettors: when the market piles money onto one position group early, the other side of the field often carries better value. If the board skews heavily toward running backs again this offseason, a receiver at longer odds may be the sharper play.
Back-to-Back OPOY Winners
No player has repeated as OPOY since Marshall Faulk won it three years running from 1999 through 2001 — a streak that still stands more than two decades later. Barkley entered the 2025 season among the early favorites to repeat, and the market was right to fade him once Smith-Njigba took over the receiver spot atop Seattle’s passing game. The fade has held up as one of the more reliable NFL OPOY betting angles in the market: bet against the reigning winner early, especially while his price runs shortest.
Recent NFL OPOY Winners
A look back at recent winners shows a clear pattern — most come from the running back or receiver position, team record matters far less than it does for MVP voting, and a big enough individual season can win the award even on a team that misses the playoffs.
How the NFL OPOY Is Decided
The same Associated Press panel that picks MVP also decides OPOY — roughly fifty sportswriters and broadcasters voting in a ranked-choice format, covering the full slate of NFL awards odds each season.
The league announces the winner at the NFL Honors ceremony, held the Thursday before the Super Bowl.
One quirk worth knowing: a player can technically win both MVP and OPOY in the same season, though it rarely happens and usually requires a quarterback putting up an all-time year.
Most OPOY winners never sniff the MVP ballot at all, which is part of why NFL Offensive Player of the Year betting moves independently of the MVP race and rewards different kinds of seasons.
NFL OPOY Betting Tips
A few angles worth tracking before placing a futures bet:
- Fade the reigning winner early. No player has won back-to-back OPOY since Faulk’s run from 1999 to 2001. The defending winner typically opens at short odds carrying public money, and Smith-Njigba will likely price in below his true repeat probability on the NFL OPOY 2026 board. The widest window for fading that name tends to come early in the offseason, before the price corrects as camps open and depth charts take shape.
- Bet the position group rotation. NFL OPOY odds have swung between running backs and receivers in recent seasons rather than settling on one. Once the betting handle leans heavily toward a single position group early, the other side of the board frequently represents the better number. Track where the money concentrates in the opening weeks and consider the other position for a longshot play.
- Weight offensive volume over team record. Unlike MVP, which leans on team success, OPOY can go to a player on a mediocre team if the touches are there. A back pushing past 300 touches or a receiver clearing 150 targets stays in the conversation no matter the win total. Anyone looking to bet on NFL OPOY should weigh projected volume more heavily than win totals when shaping a ticket.
- Treat quarterbacks as long-shot traps. Quarterbacks rarely win this award because voters typically steer a big QB season toward MVP instead. A quarterback at long OPOY odds is almost never sound value, since the outcome required — winning OPOY without also winning MVP — essentially never happens. Save the QB-heavy plays for general NFL betting markets, where passing production carries more direct weight.
Stack two or three of these together, and the picks tend to separate from the public money fast.
Bet on the 2026 NFL OPOY at BetNow
BetNow keeps NFL OPOY odds open and updated throughout the offseason and the regular season, with the running back versus wide receiver battle shaping up as the storyline that defines this year’s market.
The same board sits alongside BetNow’s Super Bowl Odds for bettors who want to pair an award pick with the bigger game.
Create a BetNow account and get your OPOY pick on the board today.
FAQ
Can a quarterback win NFL Offensive Player of the Year?
Yes, though it happens rarely. Quarterbacks have won OPOY a number of times across the award’s history, but the same dominant season that would earn OPOY usually earns MVP instead, which keeps QBs off the OPOY radar most years.
Has anyone won NFL OPOY back-to-back?
Marshall Faulk is the only player to win three straight, taking the award from 1999 through 2001. No player has repeated since.
When does the NFL OPOY award market open?
Sportsbooks typically post opening NFL OPOY odds within days of the prior season’s NFL Honors ceremony, well before the new season’s training camps even open, and the board stays live through the regular season.
Can I parlay NFL OPOY with other award bets?
Yes. Most sportsbooks allow award futures to combine into a single parlay, pairing an OPOY pick with MVP, Coach of the Year, or other award markets for a bigger combined payout.