2026 NFL OROY Odds: Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting
Early betting on the 2026 OROY race opened as a two-player contest between Jeremiyah Love and Fernando Mendoza, a running back and a quarterback taken in the top three picks of the Draft. The odds shifted fast even before training camp opened, and no one can say yet how this race ends.
BetNow tracks the NFL OROY odds for the full rookie class, updated regularly throughout the season, along with the contenders worth watching and betting tips to use along the way.
Current NFL OROY Odds 2026
BetNow’s NFL OROY odds board tracks every rookie with a realistic shot at the award, updated from the Draft through the final week of the season and listed alongside the rest of the site’s NFL betting markets. The favorites sit at the top, with a deeper tier of longshots behind them, shifting as each team’s depth chart takes shape.
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2026 NFL OROY Contenders
Five rookies currently make up the realistic NFL OROY contenders 2026 field, and the gap between the favorites and the rest tied closely to playing time.
Jeremiyah Love (RB, Arizona Cardinals)
The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds favor Love early. Arizona used the No. 3 pick on the Notre Dame back after a college season built on elite efficiency and over 1,300 rushing yards. He’s the most talented runner on a roster that finished near the bottom of the league in rushing offense, so touches won’t be the issue. The path to OROY is volume and health. The risk is the offense around him, since a thin receiving corps could cap overall output.
Fernando Mendoza (QB, Las Vegas Raiders)
The No. 1 pick arrives off a Heisman-winning, national-championship season at Indiana — the kind of résumé that usually points to early playing time, and one reason he even shows up as a long-shot name on NFL MVP odds boards. Instead, the Raiders signed veteran Kirk Cousins and have said they’d prefer Mendoza learn from the bench first. His path runs through that competition: win the job in camp, or take over by midseason, and his ceiling tops the class. The risk is explicit — a rookie quarterback who doesn’t start enough games rarely wins.
Carnell Tate (WR, Tennessee Titans)
Tate slid to Tennessee at four after splitting targets with other highly drafted receivers in college, which kept his stats lower than his tape deserved. The NFL OROY odds reflect that landing spot now working in his favor: with the Titans, he steps into a true No. 1 role for a young quarterback who flashed real arm talent as a rookie. His path runs through target share — receivers without a clear top role rarely make this conversation, and Tate avoids that problem. The risk is quarterback variance tied to his passer’s development.
Jadarian Price (RB, Seattle Seahawks)
Price went late in the first round to one of the league’s most efficient rosters, a landing spot that looks better the deeper you dig into the depth chart. He’s a quieter name in NFL OROY 2026 conversations than the players at the top of the board, but the opportunity is real. With the team moving on from its lead back and the presumed starter working back from injury, Price has a window to claim the job outright before the regular season opens. The risk is touch competition once the incumbent returns healthy.
Our NFL OROY Pick for 2026
Most NFL offensive rookie of the year predictions this early in the cycle hinge on how much Mendoza actually plays. This pick leans toward Jeremiyah Love, who doesn’t need a depth-chart resolution to get his touches — Arizona handed him the keys to the backfield the moment they drafted him.
Mendoza’s case is murkier, and the reason comes down to a complication worth spelling out. Las Vegas brought in a coaching staff with deep ties to Cousins, and the contract is structured as a one-year bridge with little reason to extend it.
That looks like a deliberate buffer for Mendoza, which cuts both ways — a long stretch on the bench caps his stats, while a slow start from Cousins could hand him the job fast. Love’s pick fails only if Arizona’s offensive line struggles badly enough that volume can’t out-vote a quarterback putting up bigger numbers elsewhere.
NFL OROY Betting Trends
A handful of NFL OROY trends show up again and again in how this award gets decided:
- First-round picks dominate. Most recent OROY winners — 19 of the last 21 — were first-round selections. Day 2 and Day 3 picks at long odds are rarely the right side of this bet, no matter the preseason buzz.
- Quarterbacks win close to half the time, but only if they start. Roughly half of recent OROY awards have gone to quarterbacks, and every one of those winners played from Week 1 or close to it. A QB stuck on the bench isn’t a live candidate.
- Running backs have cooled off against rookie quarterbacks. Running backs have won this award less often than quarterbacks and receivers lately, and head-to-head matchups show this clearly: when a rookie back and a rookie starting quarterback compete directly, the quarterback usually wins.
- First overall picks underperform their market price. The top pick often opens as the favorite, but only a handful of No. 1 selections have actually won OROY over the past decade and a half.
- Conference splits lean NFC. The award has gone to an NFC player more often than not in recent seasons, a structural wrinkle worth factoring into longshot value.
Keep these patterns in mind because they affect NFL awards odds more than reputation alone.
NFL OROY History
Last year’s race is a clear reminder that this market rewards patience over chalk. Both rookie winners opened the season as deep longshots — the eventual OROY winner opened north of +1000, and the DROY winner opened even longer — before climbing to favorite status by the time the regular season wrapped.
The table below tracks that gap year by year, the single biggest data point for anyone trying to handicap who will win NFL OROY 2026.
| Season | OROY Winner | Pos | Preseason | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Tetairoa McMillan | WR | Outside the top tier | Heavy favorite |
| 2024 | Jayden Daniels | QB | Outside the top tier | Overwhelming favorite |
| 2023 | C.J. Stroud | QB | Outside the early favorites | Heavy favorite by midseason |
| 2022 | Garrett Wilson | WR | Not a preseason favorite | Moderate favorite |
| 2021 | Ja’Marr Chase | WR | Outside the top tier | Heavy favorite |
How the NFL OROY Is Decided
The process is identical to every other major NFL award. A panel of 50 Associated Press sportswriters and broadcasters casts ballots at the end of the regular season, before the playoffs begin, and the winner is revealed at NFL Honors the Thursday before the Super Bowl.
This exact voting structure and timeline also govern the NFL DROY odds field on the other side of the ball. For both rookie markets, one wrinkle matters: a rookie has to take the field during the season, so a player who misses the year to injury is out of contention. That single rule is why injury news can move this board as much as a big performance does.
NFL OROY Betting Tips
Sharp NFL rookie betting is not about chasing a trending name. Instead:
- Confirm the depth chart before backing a rookie quarterback. A rookie passer who isn’t the Week 1 starter has almost no recent path to this award. Before placing money behind a name like Mendoza, find out who’s actually under center.
- Get in before the season narrative sets. Odds right after the Draft mostly reflect combine numbers and college tape. A few weeks into the season, one rookie usually pulls ahead and the board tightens around that name. A bet on multiple longshots early gives exposure before the field narrows.
- Don’t assume the running back wins a direct QB matchup. History leans toward the quarterback when an elite rookie passer and an elite rookie back enter the league together and both see real playing time. Know that pattern before backing a running back at the same number as a starter.
- Watch for receiver value in a thin quarterback class. When the headline quarterback struggles or a top running back’s workload gets managed, this award has gone to a receiver instead. A class without a runaway QB candidate is exactly the year a wideout sneaks in at better value than the favorites.
These tips should help you spot inefficiencies in early NFL OROY odds and secure the best possible value.
Bet on the 2026 NFL OROY at BetNow
BetNow keeps OROY markets open from the Draft through the end of the season, alongside NFL OPOY odds and the rest of the awards board, with lines moving as camp battles and early results shift the picture.
The QB-versus-RB question at the top of this board — whether Mendoza gets on the field consistently enough to challenge Love — is the storyline that defines the 2026 race.
Create your BetNow account and bet on NFL OROY today.
FAQ
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 NFL OROY?
The race opens with a running back (Love) and a quarterback (Mendoza) at the top of the board. Check BetNow’s live odds for the most current read on the favorite.
Does the first overall pick always win NFL OROY?
No. The top pick often opens favored, but only a handful of No. 1 picks have actually won this award in recent memory. A strong landing spot and real playing time matter more than draft slot alone.
Can a rookie running back beat a rookie quarterback for OROY?
It happens, but recent history favors the quarterback when both players see real playing time. A rookie back’s best shot usually comes when the quarterback class is weak or the top QB isn’t playing much.
When does the NFL OROY award market open?
Markets typically open shortly after the NFL Draft, once landing spots and immediate depth-chart roles become clear, and they stay active through the rest of the season.
Can I parlay NFL OROY with other rookie award bets?
Many sportsbooks, including BetNow, allow rookie award futures to be combined into a single parlay alongside markets like Defensive Rookie of the Year, though payout terms vary by book.