2026 NFL MVP Odds: Updated Favorites & Predictions
BetNow offers NFL MVP betting on the full field of contenders, with odds updated throughout the offseason and into the regular season. Josh Allen sits atop the board right now as the early favorite, priced well clear of the rest of the field, with Lamar Jackson sitting closest behind him.
The MVP market typically moves on team performance, a quarterback’s statistical dominance, and whichever voter narrative takes hold as the season plays out.
Below is the current NFL MVP odds 2026 board, regularly updated alongside contender breakdowns, along with the top betting tips and insights.
Current NFL MVP Odds 2026
These NFL MVP odds reflect BetNow’s board right now, and they’ll keep shifting as training camp, the preseason, and the early schedule play out. The NFL MVP favorites 2026 field already looks deeper than what we saw a year ago — Allen and Jackson lead the pack, though four or five other quarterbacks are close enough that a hot start could put them in range.
2026 NFL MVP Contenders
A handful of quarterbacks carry realistic paths to the award this year, and the NFL MVP odds attached to each one tell a different story about risk versus reward.
Josh Allen (Favorite)
Josh Allen MVP odds reflect a strong case. He topped 4,000 total yards again in 2025 and stayed near the top of the league in touchdowns, even without winning the trophy. Buffalo also traded for receiver DJ Moore this offseason, giving him a more complete weapon set. His path forward rests on Buffalo winning the AFC East and Allen staying healthy. He had offseason surgery on a foot injury but has since been practicing without limitations, which removes one of the bigger question marks hanging over his case. Right now, this reads as a bet on continued dominance.
Lamar Jackson (Second Favorite)
Lamar Jackson MVP odds reflect a 2025 campaign chewed up by injuries — hamstring, back, knee, ankle — that limited him to 13 games and a rare down stretch by his standards. Nobody questions the talent; a fully healthy Jackson posted some of the most efficient quarterback seasons on record as recently as 2024. The risk here is durability more than form. If Baltimore’s line holds up and he plays a full slate, his odds will tighten fast. This looks like a bet that last year’s injuries were the exception.
Patrick Mahomes (Longer Odds)
Mahomes isn’t short on credentials — two MVP trophies already, and a clean return from the torn ACL and LCL that ended his 2025 season would put Kansas City right back in the AFC title picture, assuming the rest of the roster holds up its end. Talent was never the issue here. It’s whether he’s actually ready by Week 1, since voters tend to want a full, uninterrupted season before they’ll put someone back at the top of the ballot. Right now, his odds price in uncertainty about his health more than his game.
Justin Herbert (Longer Odds)
Herbert quietly pulled a first-place MVP vote last season even though the Chargers fell short of finalist status, which suggests there’s already some voter goodwill in his corner. Nobody questions the arm — what his case actually depends on is Los Angeles taking a real step forward in the win column. Right now, he’s more of a longer-odds team-success bet than a play on his own individual numbers.
Our NFL MVP Predictions for 2026
Picking who will win NFL MVP 2026 means betting on health and team trajectory more than known form. Two angles stand out: a conviction favorite and a price that looks soft.
Primary Pick – Josh Allen to Win NFL MVP
Allen’s rushing production, a strengthened receiver room, and three straight top-five MVP finishes make him the most defensible NFL MVP betting pick at the top of the board. Buffalo’s roster is built to win 11-plus games again, near-universal for the award in recent years. The price already reflects what the market knows about Allen — fair value on continued dominance, not a discount. The pick fails if Buffalo’s defense drags the record down enough to push him out of the conversation, since recent winners have all come from teams with strong records.
Value Pick – Justin Herbert at Long Odds
Herbert looks underpriced for a quarterback who already pulled a first-place MVP vote last season without his team reaching the final group. Among this year’s NFL MVP predictions, he’s the rare longshot with real voter history behind him. The market is pricing the Chargers’ recent record more than Herbert’s ceiling — exactly the gap that creates value, since his odds imply a lower chance of winning than his talent probably deserves. For this to cash, Los Angeles needs a real jump in win total, something in the 11-to-12-win range, with Herbert sustaining the efficiency he’s shown in flashes.
NFL MVP History
Recent NFL MVP Trends
Quarterbacks have won NFL MVP in 12 straight seasons; Adrian Peterson’s 2012 campaign remains the last time a non-quarterback broke through. Nearly every recent winner came from a team with at least 11 regular-season wins, close to a hard floor for voters. Late-season performance carries outsized weight — strong closing stretches have repeatedly outpolled quarterbacks who led the race early but faded. Back-to-back winners are rare; voters consistently favor a fresh storyline over repeating last year’s honor.
Positional Analysis – NFL MVP Odds
Quarterbacks dominate MVP voting mostly because of how much one player can swing a team’s record, and because no other position gets nearly the same camera time during a broadcast. Adrian Peterson’s 2012 season is still the last time a non-quarterback won outright, and even Barry Sanders never managed that back in 1997 — he tied with Brett Favre instead. A non-quarterback generating real MVP buzz typically needs an outlier statistical season paired with a team that’s also winning — a combination that rarely lines up.
NFL MVP Winners – Recent History
Matthew Stafford took home the most recent MVP award, edging Drake Maye by five total points in the closest vote since 2003. The table below shows the last several seasons of winners.
| Season | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Matthew Stafford, LA Rams QB |
| 2024-25 | Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills QB |
| 2023-24 | Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens QB |
| 2022-23 | Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs QB |
| 2021-22 | Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers QB |
| 2020-21 | Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers QB |
How the NFL MVP Is Decided
How is NFL MVP decided, and what are the rules behind the vote? A 50-person Associated Press panel handles it — one sportswriter or broadcaster per NFL city, plus a handful of national voters.
Each ballot ranks five names from first through fifth, and a player’s higher rankings count for far more than a lower one — a first-place vote carries the most weight by a wide margin. Whoever collects the most cumulative points wins, and that’s not always the same player with the most first-place votes.
Voting closes after Week 18, with the winner announced at NFL Honors the Thursday before the Super Bowl.
This matters for bettors because last season’s race came down to a single vote and was decided by point totals, not a simple plurality — a player who’s everyone’s strong second choice can occasionally edge out someone with more outright first-place support. Keep that in mind whenever the NFL MVP odds look lopsided toward one runaway favorite.
NFL MVP Betting Tips
Smart NFL MVP betting comes down to timing and a clear read on team strength, not on going with gut feel on which quarterback looks best on tape.
- Bet early before the narrative locks in. NFL MVP odds open in February, but public money floods in once the season starts, compressing the board on whichever names get the most airtime. A summer favorite can shorten dramatically by midseason if the team performs as expected, so locking in value early rewards conviction over waiting for confirmation.
- Weigh team record over individual stats. A quarterback throwing for 40-plus touchdowns on a non-playoff team hasn’t won this award in well over a decade — recent winners have almost always come from teams with 11 or more wins, so before backing anyone, it’s worth projecting the larger NFL betting situation, especially their team’s win total.
- Fade the reigning MVP. Back-to-back winners are genuinely rare in this market, and the defending champion tends to run into a built-in narrative headwind since voters seem to gravitate toward a fresh storyline rather than handing the same honor out twice in a row. That pattern has more or less held across the last two decades.
- Track the market through November. The MVP race is usually decided in the season’s final six weeks, and a player surging into the playoffs draws disproportionate voter attention relative to a quarterback who led the race in September. A name climbing from a longer price to a short one late in the year can still represent value if the underlying performance and team record support it.
Understanding NFL MVP Odds
American odds work differently depending on which sign sits in front of the number, and that format holds across every NFL futures betting market — not just MVP, but also NFL OPOY odds and other season-long awards.
A plus-money line means a bet smaller than the payout: betting $100 on a +500 line returns $600 total, or $500 in profit. A minus line works the other way — betting $150 on a -150 line returns $100 in profit.
To find implied probability, divide 100 by the odds plus 100. For a +500 line, that’s 100 divided by 600, or roughly 16.7%.
Futures markets carry more bookmaker margin than standard game lines. A typical game moneyline runs close to 5% vig, while a full futures board like NFL MVP often carries 15-25% margin spread across the entire field.
That’s why the implied probabilities of every player on the board add up to well over 100% — the excess above that mark is simply the sportsbook’s built-in edge. The same math applies to NFL awards odds generally, not just the MVP race.
Bet on the 2026 NFL MVP at BetNow
NFL MVP odds stay open at BetNow year-round, from the moment the board opens in February through the final weeks of the regular season. Bettors looking to build a bigger position can pair an MVP pick with Super Bowl odds futures for the same season.
Create an account with BetNow to place a bet on NFL MVP using the latest odds.
FAQ
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Josh Allen leads the board, with Lamar Jackson sitting next behind. Both prices will keep moving through training camp and into the regular season, so the gap between the two could close or widen depending on how the health news breaks.
Can a non-quarterback win the NFL MVP?
Technically yes, though it’s rare in practice — Adrian Peterson in 2012 is still the last non-quarterback to pull it off, and the position has dominated the award for 12 straight seasons since then, so breaking that streak would probably take a genuinely historic statistical season paired with a winning record.
When are NFL MVP odds announced?
Sportsbooks usually post early lines within days of the previous season’s Super Bowl, and from there the board just keeps updating through training camp, the preseason, and the regular season as injuries and team performance shift the picture week to week.
How is the NFL MVP voted on?
A 50-person panel of AP sportswriters and broadcasters ranks their top five choices after Week 18, with points assigned by rank rather than simple majority vote, and the winner gets announced at NFL Honors on the Thursday before the Super Bowl.
Can I parlay NFL MVP with other futures bets?
Yes. BetNow allows MVP futures to be combined with other season-long markets, such as Super Bowl winner or other major NFL awards, in a single futures parlay for bettors who want to build a larger position around the same season.