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Super Bowl Betting History: Favorites vs. Underdogs and Cover Rate Trends

Home » Bet on NFL Games Online » Super Bowl Betting History: Favorites vs. Underdogs and Cover Rate Trends
Betting the Sam Darnold “Seeing Ghosts” Narrative — Super Bowl Props, Patriots vs Seahawks

Sixty Super Bowls now provide a long record of how championship favorites, underdogs, spreads, and totals actually finished. This Super Bowl betting history guide uses closing or near-kickoff market references rather than opening prices, then grades every result from the final score.

The latest entry is Super Bowl LX, where Seattle was a 4.5-point favorite and beat New England 29–13 on February 8, 2026. For context around that event, BetNow’s Super Bowl LX odds page covers the championship market.

Super Bowl Betting Results, Every Year Since 1967

The table is the core record behind the historical calculations below. “Closing spread” identifies the favorite and reference price, while “ATS result” identifies the side that covered. Super Bowl I has no total because the historical dataset used here does not list one.

For consistency, Super Bowls I–50 follow ESPN’s archived closing-line record; later games use ESPN consensus or near-kickoff market references. Historical sportsbooks can differ by a half-point, so another archive may show an alternate number for a small number of games. Final scores were checked separately, including Seattle’s 29–13 Super Bowl LX result in the NFL’s official recap.

Super Bowl Matchup Closing/reference spread Total Final score ATS result O/U
I 1967 Packers–Chiefs Packers -14 — Green Bay Packers 35–10 Kansas City Chiefs Packers N/A
II 1968 Packers–Raiders Packers -13.5 43 Green Bay Packers 33–14 Oakland Raiders Packers Over
III 1969 Colts–Jets Colts -18 40 New York Jets 16–7 Baltimore Colts Jets Under
IV 1970 Vikings–Chiefs Vikings -12 39 Kansas City Chiefs 23–7 Minnesota Vikings Chiefs Under
V 1971 Cowboys–Colts Cowboys -2.5 36 Baltimore Colts 16–13 Dallas Cowboys Colts Under
VI 1972 Cowboys–Dolphins Cowboys -6 34 Dallas Cowboys 24–3 Miami Dolphins Cowboys Under
VII 1973 Dolphins–Washington Dolphins -1.5 33 Miami Dolphins 14–7 Washington Redskins Dolphins Under
VIII 1974 Dolphins–Vikings Dolphins -6.5 33 Miami Dolphins 24–7 Minnesota Vikings Dolphins Under
IX 1975 Steelers–Vikings Steelers -3 33 Pittsburgh Steelers 16–6 Minnesota Vikings Steelers Under
X 1976 Steelers–Cowboys Steelers -6.5 36 Pittsburgh Steelers 21–17 Dallas Cowboys Cowboys Over
XI 1977 Raiders–Vikings Raiders -4.5 38 Oakland Raiders 32–14 Minnesota Vikings Raiders Over
XII 1978 Cowboys–Broncos Cowboys -6 39 Dallas Cowboys 27–10 Denver Broncos Cowboys Under
XIII 1979 Steelers–Cowboys Steelers -3.5 37 Pittsburgh Steelers 35–31 Dallas Cowboys Steelers Over
XIV 1980 Steelers–Rams Steelers -10.5 36 Pittsburgh Steelers 31–19 Los Angeles Rams Steelers Over
XV 1981 Eagles–Raiders Eagles -3 37.5 Oakland Raiders 27–10 Philadelphia Eagles Raiders Under
XVI 1982 Bengals–49ers Bengals -1 48 San Francisco 49ers 26–21 Cincinnati Bengals 49ers Under
XVII 1983 Dolphins–Washington Dolphins -3 36.5 Washington Redskins 27–17 Miami Dolphins Washington Over
XVIII 1984 Washington–Raiders Washington -3.5 48 Los Angeles Raiders 38–9 Washington Redskins Raiders Under
XIX 1985 49ers–Dolphins 49ers -3 53.5 San Francisco 49ers 38–16 Miami Dolphins 49ers Over
XX 1986 Bears–Patriots Bears -10 37.5 Chicago Bears 46–10 New England Patriots Bears Over
XXI 1987 Giants–Broncos Giants -9.5 40 New York Giants 39–20 Denver Broncos Giants Over
XXII 1988 Broncos–Washington Broncos -3.5 47 Washington Redskins 42–10 Denver Broncos Washington Over
XXIII 1989 49ers–Bengals 49ers -7 48 San Francisco 49ers 20–16 Cincinnati Bengals Bengals Under
XXIV 1990 49ers–Broncos 49ers -12 48 San Francisco 49ers 55–10 Denver Broncos 49ers Over
XXV 1991 Bills–Giants Bills -6.5 40.5 New York Giants 20–19 Buffalo Bills Giants Under
XXVI 1992 Washington–Bills Washington -7 48.5 Washington Redskins 37–24 Buffalo Bills Washington Over
XXVII 1993 Cowboys–Bills Cowboys -6.5 44.5 Dallas Cowboys 52–17 Buffalo Bills Cowboys Over
XXVIII 1994 Cowboys–Bills Cowboys -10.5 50.5 Dallas Cowboys 30–13 Buffalo Bills Cowboys Under
XXIX 1995 49ers–Chargers 49ers -18 54 San Francisco 49ers 49–26 San Diego Chargers 49ers Over
XXX 1996 Cowboys–Steelers Cowboys -13.5 52 Dallas Cowboys 27–17 Pittsburgh Steelers Steelers Under
XXXI 1997 Packers–Patriots Packers -14 49.5 Green Bay Packers 35–21 New England Patriots Push Over
XXXII 1998 Packers–Broncos Packers -11.5 49 Denver Broncos 31–24 Green Bay Packers Broncos Over
XXXIII 1999 Broncos–Falcons Broncos -7.5 53 Denver Broncos 34–19 Atlanta Falcons Broncos Push
XXXIV 2000 Rams–Titans Rams -7 48 St. Louis Rams 23–16 Tennessee Titans Push Under
XXXV 2001 Ravens–Giants Ravens -3 33 Baltimore Ravens 34–7 New York Giants Ravens Over
XXXVI 2002 Rams–Patriots Rams -14 53.5 New England Patriots 20–17 St. Louis Rams Patriots Under
XXXVII 2003 Raiders–Buccaneers Raiders -4 44 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48–21 Oakland Raiders Buccaneers Over
XXXVIII 2004 Patriots–Panthers Patriots -7 37.5 New England Patriots 32–29 Carolina Panthers Panthers Over
XXXIX 2005 Patriots–Eagles Patriots -7 47.5 New England Patriots 24–21 Philadelphia Eagles Eagles Under
XL 2006 Steelers–Seahawks Steelers -4 47 Pittsburgh Steelers 21–10 Seattle Seahawks Steelers Under
XLI 2007 Colts–Bears Colts -7 48 Indianapolis Colts 29–17 Chicago Bears Colts Under
XLII 2008 Patriots–Giants Patriots -12.5 54.5 New York Giants 17–14 New England Patriots Giants Under
XLIII 2009 Steelers–Cardinals Steelers -7 46.5 Pittsburgh Steelers 27–23 Arizona Cardinals Cardinals Over
XLIV 2010 Colts–Saints Colts -4.5 56.5 New Orleans Saints 31–17 Indianapolis Colts Saints Under
XLV 2011 Packers–Steelers Packers -2.5 45 Green Bay Packers 31–25 Pittsburgh Steelers Packers Over
XLVI 2012 Patriots–Giants Patriots -3 54 New York Giants 21–17 New England Patriots Giants Under
XLVII 2013 49ers–Ravens 49ers -4 47 Baltimore Ravens 34–31 San Francisco 49ers Ravens Over
XLVIII 2014 Broncos–Seahawks Broncos -2.5 47.5 Seattle Seahawks 43–8 Denver Broncos Seahawks Over
XLIX 2015 Patriots–Seahawks Patriots -1 47.5 New England Patriots 28–24 Seattle Seahawks Patriots Over
L 2016 Panthers–Broncos Panthers -5 43.5 Denver Broncos 24–10 Carolina Panthers Broncos Under
LI 2017 Patriots–Falcons Patriots -3 57 New England Patriots 34–28 Atlanta Falcons Patriots Over
LII 2018 Patriots–Eagles Patriots -4.5 49 Philadelphia Eagles 41–33 New England Patriots Eagles Over
LIII 2019 Patriots–Rams Patriots -2.5 55.5 New England Patriots 13–3 Los Angeles Rams Patriots Under
LIV 2020 Chiefs–49ers Chiefs -1.5 53.5 Kansas City Chiefs 31–20 San Francisco 49ers Chiefs Under
LV 2021 Chiefs–Buccaneers Chiefs -3 56 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31–9 Kansas City Chiefs Buccaneers Under
LVI 2022 Rams–Bengals Rams -4.5 48.5 Los Angeles Rams 23–20 Cincinnati Bengals Bengals Under
LVII 2023 Eagles–Chiefs Eagles -1 51 Kansas City Chiefs 38–35 Philadelphia Eagles Chiefs Over
LVIII 2024 49ers–Chiefs 49ers -2 46.5 Kansas City Chiefs 25–22 San Francisco 49ers Chiefs Over
LIX 2025 Chiefs–Eagles Chiefs -1.5 48.5 Philadelphia Eagles 40–22 Kansas City Chiefs Eagles Over
LX 2026 Seahawks–Patriots Seahawks -4.5 45.5 Seattle Seahawks 29–13 New England Patriots Seahawks Under

Favorites vs. Underdogs: Who Actually Wins?

Judged by the closing favorite above, favorites are 37–23 straight up through Super Bowl LX, a 61.7% win rate. So, Super Bowl history cuts both ways. The favorite usually holds up, and yet 23 champions closed as underdogs, nearly two in five.

The split should not be treated as a forecast by itself. The point spread changes the question from “who wins?” to “by how much?” Anyone comparing moneyline and point spread betting should separate straight-up results from ATS results.

Across favorites vs. underdogs, the most recent decade is much less one-sided. From Super Bowls LI through LX, favorites went 5–5 straight up.

Against the Spread (ATS): The Real Cover Rate Trend

The all-time ATS record sits almost level. Underdogs are 30–28–2 through Super Bowl LX, and once the two pushes come out, they’ve covered 51.7% of graded games against 48.3% for favorites.

So knowing who won tells you very little about which ticket cashed. The pushes came in XXXI and XXXIV. Green Bay laid 14 and won by exactly 14. St. Louis repeated the trick at -7, winning by seven. A favorite can also take the game outright and still fail to cover the spread, which is what happened in Super Bowl LVI, where the Rams closed at -4.5 and beat Cincinnati 23–20.

Recent results lean toward dogs without creating a rule. Underdogs covered five consecutive Super Bowls from LV through LIX before Seattle ended that run in LX. Over the last 10 games, underdogs are 6–4 ATS. That is a useful Super Bowl betting trends snapshot, not evidence that the next underdog has an automatic edge.

Over/Under History: How Often Do Super Bowls Go Over?

Of the 59 Super Bowls in this dataset with a listed total, 29 went over, 29 went under, and one pushed. That works out to 49.2% either way, with the push accounting for the remaining 1.7%.

Super Bowl XXXIII supplied that push. Denver beat Atlanta 34–19, and the 53 combined points landed exactly on a total of 53. Over the 10 Super Bowls from LI through LX, overs and unders split 5–5. The wider Super Bowl odds history therefore shows no all-time advantage for either result in this dataset.

Totals also changed substantially across eras. Early championship totals commonly sat in the 30s, while Super Bowl LI closed at 57 in the reference used here. The final score reached 62 points when New England beat Atlanta 34–28.

Biggest Super Bowl Upsets and Closest Games

The Jets’ 16–7 victory over Baltimore in Super Bowl III remains the benchmark among Super Bowl upsets. ESPN’s closing-line archive lists the Colts as 18-point favorites, making New York the largest closing underdog to win the game outright.

The list of major Super Bowl upsets runs deeper than that. New England was getting 14 points from St. Louis in XXXVI and won. The Giants did the same in XLII, 12.5-point dogs against a Patriots team that hadn’t lost all season. The older ones count too: Kansas City beat Minnesota in IV as a 12-point dog, and Denver got 11.5 against Green Bay in XXXII.

At the other end of the margin scale, Super Bowl XXV is the only one-point finish: the Giants beat Buffalo 20–19. Three consecutive games from LVI through LVIII were decided by exactly three points. Those close finals are part of Super Bowl spread history, but a small final margin does not necessarily mean the closing line was small.

If readers want a non-sportsbook pool format built around score digits instead of margins, the rules for Super Bowl squares are a separate concept.

Super Bowl betting history FAQs

How often do favorites win the Super Bowl?

Through Super Bowl LX, closing favorites are 37–23 straight up in the dataset used here, or 61.7%. That is the answer from the full Super Bowl history sample, but it does not mean favorites have been similarly dominant ATS.

Who is the biggest underdog to ever win the Super Bowl?

The New York Jets are the biggest closing underdog to win, beating the Baltimore Colts 16–7 in Super Bowl III as 18-point underdogs. That remains the defining championship betting upset.

What is the biggest point spread in Super Bowl history?

The ESPN/Gold Sheet closing lines behind this table top out at 18 points, and two Super Bowls sit at that number. Baltimore laid 18 against the Jets in Super Bowl III. San Francisco laid the same against San Diego in XXIX, though other historical databases put that one at -18.5, which is where the half-point discrepancy between published records comes from.

Have underdogs covered the spread more often than favorites in recent years?

Yes. Underdogs went 6–4 ATS over the 10 Super Bowls from LI through LX. They had also covered five straight from LV through LIX before favorite Seattle covered in LX. The larger all-time record is much closer at 30–28–2 in favor of underdogs against the spread.

Closing Thoughts

The full Super Bowl betting history record doesn’t reduce to one angle. Favorites have won 61.7% of the games. Underdogs still hold a narrow ATS edge, and among games with listed totals the over/under split is close to even.

None of that is a prediction. It’s background. Before you bet, check the current price and work out what it actually takes to cover the spread. Sides and totals are also a separate question from markets like Super Bowl prop bets. History only ever tells you what already happened.

Hilbert Mayer

Sports Writer

Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.

Published on: September 17, 2026
Last updated: November 1, 2026

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