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UFC on ESPN 56: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento 5/11/24 Fight Forecast, Picks and Analysis

UFC on ESPN 56: Lewis vs. Nascimento 5/11/24 – As the UFC gears up for another electrifying event at UFC on ESPN 56, the heavyweight clash between Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis and Rodrigo “Ze Colmeia” Nascimento promises to be a focal point for fans and MMA betting predictions alike. Scheduled for May 11, 2024, at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri, this bout pits two formidable fighters with contrasting records and styles against each other. Lewis, with a veteran’s record of 27 wins, 12 losses, and 1 no contest, looks to bounce back from a recent defeat, while the relatively fresher Nascimento brings an impressive 11-1-0 (1 NC) record, hoping to continue his winning streak and climb the heavyweight rankings.

UFC on ESPN 56: Lewis vs. Nascimento 5/11/24

When:Saturday, May 11, 2024 7:00 PM ET
Where:UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
Stream:UFC Fight Pass

UFC on ESPN 56: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento 5/11/24 Odds

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Derrick Lewis-150Rodrigo Nascimento+125

Main Card

Derrick Lewis

Derrick Lewis, popularly referred to as “The Black Beast” in the MMA community, steps into the octagon with a jaw-dropping record and a reputation that precedes him. Having achieved 27 victories, Lewis is known for his rapid strikes and deadly finishing blows. He managed to knock out 2.43 strikes per minute at a 50% accuracy indicating his efficiency and tactical patience since he prefers to wait for the best moment to burst. In brief, his ability of delivering stunning blows and nine-minute average fighting time suggests his capacity of knocking out his competitors quickly.

Granted, grappling is not the strong suit of Lewis. Averaging only 0.53 takedowns per 15 minutes with 53 percent takedown defense, Lewis tends to prefer to stay on their feet and use his strikes advantage. His previous fight a defeat to Almeida has shown some chinks in his armor, especially against fighters who can combine striking with efficient grappling. As his imposing stature can be both an advantage and disadvantage, he can knock out most of his opponents easily, but his height also affects his sprinting and stamina in the longer bouts.

Rodrigo Nascimento

Rodrigo Nascimento “Ze Colmeia” steps into the fight with a promising career path in the heavyweight division. His score of 11-1-0 with one no contest shows a hot prospect with diverse abilities. Nascimento’s impressive stats of 4.31 important strikes landed per minute at a 48% accuracy. This high output rate reveals his aggressive approach and confidence in the stand-up game, so he becomes a constant threat in the case of striking exchanges.

Nascimento’s superior grappling skills set him apart. Averaging 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes and having 77% takedown defense, he clearly demonstrates how to govern the fight venue. The capacity to control the tempo and the distance of the fight provides him with tactical superiority, especially against the majority punchers like Lewis who do not possess many close range skills. In his recent triumph over Mayes he brilliantly revealed the strategy applied in that he used his excellent grappling skills to neutralize his rival’s attacks and secure a dominant position. At 6’2” and 246 lbs. Nascimento has a slight reach advantage and a more diverse skill set, indicating that he might be a threat to Lewis on his feet and on the ground.

Lewis vs. Nascimento Betting Numbers

Derrick Lewis
Rodrigo Nascimento
Record22-7-0 1 NC7-0-0
Last FightLossWin
Weight (lbs)260246
Reach (in)78″N/A
Win by KO/TKO81%18%
Win by Submission4%55%
Strikes landed per minute2.69N/A
Striking accuracy50%N/A
Striking absorbed per minute2.38N/A
Striking defense44%N/A
Takedown average0.47N/A
Takedown accuracy23%N/A
Takedown defense53%N/A
Submission average0N/A

Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento Summary

If evaluating the fighters, Derrick Lewis’s experience and one-shot knockout power prove challenging for any heavyweight. Nevertheless, the most recent matches were not easy for him as he encountered difficulties maintaining speed and endurance among the young and agile, such as Nascimento. While Rodrigo’s strength in grappling and higher number of significant strikes per minute might be a problem to Lewis’ on ground battles or later rounds, the latter has demonstrated an impressive physicality and adaptability.

Accounting for the strengths and the weaknesses, the online top betting sites give Nascimento a slight edge as the most likely winner. He can withstand and still progress may be the secret amid a fight that’s likely to become the full show of endurance for both of them. Nevertheless, risking a Lewis’ knockout power is always present in betting against him, so his fight with the UFC fans and bettors surely does not remain indifferent to this game. In this instance, therefore, even though Nascimento most likely will be victorious, it would not be very wise to totally rule out Lewis’s possibility to end the fight with a single blow. It is not only going to be a show of fireworks, precise distinction of styles and a must watch as well as a marker for those who bet on MMA.