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UFC on ESPN 55: Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez 4/27/24 Fight Forecast, Picks and Analysis

UFC on ESPN 55: Nicolau vs. Perez 4/27/24 – As the UFC 300 approaches, one of the most intriguing matchups on the card features a flyweight bout between Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez. With Nicolau boasting a record of 19-4-1 and Perez standing at 24-8-0, this contest pits two experienced fighters against each other, promising an explosive encounter in the Octagon. As fans and analysts pore over data to make their UFC picks today, this fight stands out for its potential implications in the flyweight hierarchy and its promise of high-level mixed martial arts action.

UFC on ESPN 55: Nicolau vs. Perez 4/27/24

When:Saturday, April 27, 2024 7:00 PM ET
Where:UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Stream:UFC Fight Pass

UFC on ESPN 55: Nicolau vs. Perez 4/27/24 Odds

Bet Now on this Game

Matheus Nicolau-180Alex Perez=150

Main Card

Matheus Nicolau

Matheus Nicolau bring into the Octagon his undeniable feats of discipline and skill demonstrated by his 19-4-1 record which is a proof of him difficult and easily adaptable to different fights. Nicolau’s stats highlight him as a well-rounded guy with a slight upper hand in terms of striking accuracy(53%) against Perez who has 46%. This can indicate that Nicolau could do a much better job in placing or landing quality strikes. His average fight time of 11:14 is a pretty tall achievement. It may eventually come in handy during the fights that extend to late rounds after all.

Meanwhile, Nicolau’s working grappling skills are exceptional. Constantly striving for perfection, he currently has 93.00% defense rate in takedowns, one of the highest in the division and it is not a secret that Perez often uses this technique. It is quite an advantage against a takedown-centered fighter like Perez. The recent loss to Royval is considered a drawback, which has probably given him much-needed knowledge regarding techniques, as well as a better comprehension of how to maintain fight tempo and avoid getting submitted.

Alex Perez

On the other hand, Alex Perez has a solid track record of 24 wins. However, his relatively shorter average fight time of 6:38 could signal showing a preference for, or a probable history of finishing contests proper with either knockouts or quick taps. This potentially can work to Nicolau’s advantage as has already demonstrated that he can endure and fight stressful appearances better than his opponent. It is true that Perez’s striking rate with more strikes per minute shows the fighter’s stump but he should also be careful not to be over-aggressive and burn out his energy in the beginning of the fight.

The said figure in no way signifies that Perez is a weaker wrestler against Nicolau. In fact, he averages more takedowns per fight (2.26 per 15 minutes) which could be seen as a crucial aspect of his strategy. Nevertheless, he meets hands-on the difficult task of taking down Nicolau which is surely superior to him in defense of takedown. Mokaev could be the biggest threat to Perez in his last fight, because it showed some potential flaws that Perez could improve in controlling the other combatant more strongly, especially against an opponent who is very technical but can pull the same position comfortably as Perez.

Nicolau vs. Perez Betting Numbers

Matheus Nicolau
Alex Perez
Last FightLossLoss
Weight (lbs)125125
Reach (in)65″64″
Win by KO/TKO26%21%
Win by Submission26%29%
Strikes landed per minute3.834.68
Striking accuracy51%48%
Striking absorbed per minute2.433.11
Striking defense70%61%
Takedown average1.93.13
Takedown accuracy66%47%
Takedown defense100%87%
Submission average1.591.25

Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez Summary

With regard to the fighter’s performance, Nicolau occupied a slightly better position as he owns both a better defensive capability and a higher level of striking precision. This conditions might not only strengthen him to overcome Perez’s initial surprise attack but also put him on the path of implementing his successful tactics which he has rehearsed in the preparations in the later rounds. Furthermore, being able to push for more extended battles is an important element of Nicolau’s tactics as he could endurance-wise outlast the other fighting.

For those looking into UFC picks and betting insights, this fight might lean slightly towards Nicolau as the favorite, as indicated by several top-tier betting websites. His superior metrics in key areas, coupled with his experience in managing fight dynamics, make him a solid pick. However, Perez’s aggressive style and potential for early finishes should not be underestimated, making this matchup one of the most balanced and unpredictable on the UFC 300 card. This bout is not only a test of skill but also of strategic acumen, promising to be a highlight of the evening.