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UFC ON ESPN 51: Vicente Luque vs Rafael Dos Anjos 08/12/2023 Fight Picks, Predictions and Preview

UFC ON ESPN 51: Luque vs Dos Anjos 08/12/2023 – Welterweights Vicente Luque and Rafael Dos Anjos clash in the main event of UFC on ESPN 51 on Saturday, August 12 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The five-round match will be featured on ESPN/ESPN+ on live television. The showdown is also available on UFC Fight Pass for audiences who prefer the livestream format. Dos Anjos is coming off a two-round submission victory over Bryan Barbarena while Luque aims to break his two-fight losing streak. Luque holds a slight edge over Dos Anjos in sports oddsmakers‘ books despite the latter’s vast experience in big-time matches.

UFC ON ESPN 51: Luque vs Dos Anjos 08/12/2023

When:Saturday, August 12, 2023 7:00 PM ET
Where:UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Stream:UFC Fight Pass

UFC ON ESPN 51: Luque vs Dos Anjos 08/12/2023 Odds

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Vicente Luque-110Rafael Dos Anjos-120

Main Card

Vicente Luque

Luque (21-9-1, 14-5 UFC) has shot up to the Top 10 of the UFC welterweight rankings after recording 14 wins in 19 fights inside the octagon. The New Jersey-born MMA campaigner, who now fights out of Brasilia, has struck wins over former champion Tyron Woodley, ex-Ultimate Fighter winner Michael Chiesa, Niko Price (twice) and No3 welterweight contender Belal Muhammad. He also had matches with No7 contender Stephen Thompson and No8 Geoff Neal. In his last fight, Luque succumbed to a three-round knockout loss to Neal after going toe-to-toe with the American in the first two rounds. The 31-year-old will have a three-inch height and a 5 1/2-inch reach advantage that he can use to smother Dos Anjos in striking and halt his rival’s grappling attacks.

Luque has finished 13 of his 14 opponents in the UFC and 19 overall (11 knockouts, 8 submissions). During his matches, the Brazilian has landed 5.49 strikes per minute and his significant strike accuracy rate is 52%. He has a 52% striking defense rate and absorbed 5.51 significant strikes per minute. Luque is not fond of grappling as evidenced by his takedown average of 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50% and his defense rate is 61%. He has a submission average of 0.76 per 15 minutes.

Rafael Dos Anjos

Dos Anjos (32-14, 21-12 UFC) will make his 34th UFC fight and attempt to gain his 22nd UFC victory and 33 overall. The former UFC lightweight champion is currently the No9 contender in the welterweight rankings and he looks to make the 170-pound class his permanent home. The Brazilian excelled in his welterweight return in December last year with a two-round submission victory over Bryan Barbarena. Dos Anjos comes to the fight with a height and reach disadvantage but he has proven in previous matches that he can stand and deliver against all odds.

The Brazilian has tallied 16 finishes (5 knockouts, 11 submissions) in his career and has never lost via submission. He puts a premium on grappling being a perennial winner of the World Jiu-Jitsu Championship. He has averages of 2.05 takedowns per 15 minutes and 0.59 submissions per minutes 15 minutes. His takedown defense and takedown accuracy are polar opposites at 59% and 35%, respectively. Dos Anjos has landed 3.56 significant strikes per minute and has an accuracy rate of 47%. His defense against strikes was at 61% and has absorbed 3.21 significant strikes per minute.

Luque vs Dos Anjos Betting Numbers

Vicente Luque
Rafael Dos Anjos
Last FightLossWin
Weight (lbs)169154
Reach (in)74″69″
Win by KO/TKO52%16%
Win by Submission38%34%
Strikes landed per minute5.113.6
Striking accuracy57%45%
Striking absorbed per minute4.523.25
Striking defense54%62%
Takedown average1.132.02
Takedown accuracy50%41%
Takedown defense62%59%
Submission average1.130.7

Luque vs Dos Anjos Betting Picks

Luque holds a slight edge against Dos Anjos as per the best MMA betting picks online despite losing two straight matches. Vicente Luque is a legitimate welterweight that could appear bigger over Dos Anjos after the weigh-in. The former UFC champion may encounter difficulties during the fight in terms of striking but he could even up matters and possibly take advantage when the fight goes to the ground. The fight could last the full route as both protagonists are capable of enduring punishment but it could also end early if one of them finds an opening and use their MMA skills to capture the victory.