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UFC ON ESPN 48: Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson 07/01/2023 Fight Predictions, Picks and Preview

UFC ON ESPN 48: Ismagulov vs Dawson 07/01/2023 – Damir Ismagulov goes one-on-one with Grant Dawson in a three-round lightweight showdown on Saturday, July 1, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The clash is the co-main event of the UFC on ESPN 48 fight card that features Sean Strickland and Abus Magomedov in a five-round middleweight match. Ismagulov is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan in December last year while Dawson is looking for his third straight submission victory. The winner of the bout will increase their chances of making it to the Top 10 of the UFC lightweight rankings as Ismagulov and Dawson are dynamic fighters who are expected to bring fireworks whenever they fought inside the octagon. Opening UFC odds are already updated as the public awaits for the exciting encounter between two of the best fighters in the 155-pound division.

UFC ON ESPN 48: Ismagulov vs Dawson 07/01/2023

When:Saturday, July 1, 7:00 PM ET
Where:UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Stream:UFC Fight Pass

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UFC ON ESPN 48: Ismagulov vs Dawson 07/01/2023 Odds

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Damir Ismagulov-115Grant Dawson-115

Main Card

Damir Ismagulov

Ismagulov (24-2, 5-1 UFC) was a former M-1 Lightweight champion before he stepped into the octagon in December 2018 in Australia, where he decisioned Alex Goerges. His first victory in the UFC would start a string of five consecutive wins against Joel Alvarez, Thiago Moises, Rafael Alves and Guram Kutaeladze. The streak moved him to No12 in the 155-pound rankings. However in December, Ismagulov stumbled to Arman Tsarukyan and in the process, broke his 19-fight winning streak that spanned from November 2015  to December 2022. He comes back to the octagon with a mission to bounce back from that setback and revitalize his quest for the lightweight title.

Stats wise, the Orenburg-born mixed martial artist fighting out of Kazakhstan has stopped 13 of his opponents, with 12 ending via knockout. He has averaged an impressive 3.78 significant strikes per minute at a rate of 42%. He has allowed 2.51 strikes to touch his body and has defended 62% of the attempts against him. In terms of grappling, Ismagulov has been able to land an average of 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes at an accuracy rate of 28%. His takedown defense is outstanding as he has stopped 75% of the attempts put up against him.

Grant Dawson

Dawson (19-1-1, 7-0-1 UFC) has been sensational since he stepped in the octagon for the first time in March 2019. The Cambria, Wisconsin native has yet to be beaten eight assignments, with seven resulting in victories. Dawson defeated Julian Erosa, Michael Trizano, Darrick Minner, Nad Marimani and Leonardo Santos before settling for a draw with Ricky Glenn in October 2021. He came back in April 2022 and won via a rear-naked choke submission over Jared Gordon. He would make it two in a row six months later when he submitted Mark Madsen. The 29-year-old has 13 of his 17 finishes via submission and the rest were knockouts.

In terms of fight metrics, Dawson has landed 3.12 significant strikes per minute at an excellent clip of 51%. The American’s defense has been good against the strikes, absorbing 2.41 strikes per minute and his defense rate is 45%. Dawson is a monster in terms of grappling with a takedown average of 3.8 per 15 minutes. As a fighter who places a premium in grappling, his takedown accuracy is an “active” 34%. His takedown defense is 40% and his submission rate is 1.55 per 15 minutes.

Ismagulov vs Dawson Betting Numbers

Damir Ismagulov
Grant Dawson
Last FightLossWin
Weight (lbs)154145
Reach (in)74″71″
Win by KO/TKO50%21%
Win by Submission4%68%
Strikes landed per minute3.273.76
Striking accuracy47%46%
Striking absorbed per minute1.62.51
Striking defense69%45%
Takedown average2.55.23
Takedown accuracy45%45%
Takedown defenseN/A50%
Submission average02.09

Ismagulov vs Dawson Betting Picks

Ismagulov and Dawson will figure in a clash that could have the potential of becoming the “Fight of the Night.” Both fighters will go at it offensively as they are expected to be firing on all cylinders just to get that all-important win. A victory by either fighter would help their contendership status in the 155-pound class, as a convincing win would propel them in the rankings and earn a possible shot at fighting with other contenders in the division.

The Kazakh is slightly favored in various online sites that feature MMA picks and parlays due to his experience and ability to step up in big fights. However, the American has the hands and grappling skills to cause a stunning win and improve his rankings in the lightweight category. Dawson will have an enormous opportunity to prove the critics wrong and a convincing victory over Ismagulov would place him in more lucrative fights in the future.