UFC ON ESPN 48: Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson 07/01/2023 Fight Predictions, Picks and Preview

UFC ON ESPN 48: Ismagulov vs Dawson 07/01/2023 – Damir Ismagulov goes one-on-one with Grant Dawson in a three-round lightweight showdown on Saturday, July 1, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The clash is the co-main event of the UFC on ESPN 48 fight card that features Sean Strickland and Abus Magomedov in a five-round middleweight match. Ismagulov is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan in December last year while Dawson is looking for his third straight submission victory. The winner of the bout will increase their chances of making it to the Top 10 of the UFC lightweight rankings as Ismagulov and Dawson are dynamic fighters who are expected to bring fireworks whenever they fought inside the octagon. Opening UFC odds are already updated as the public awaits for the exciting encounter between two of the best fighters in the 155-pound division.

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Main Card

Damir Ismagulov

Ismagulov (24-2, 5-1 UFC) was a former M-1 Lightweight champion before he stepped into the octagon in December 2018 in Australia, where he decisioned Alex Goerges. His first victory in the UFC would start a string of five consecutive wins against Joel Alvarez, Thiago Moises, Rafael Alves and Guram Kutaeladze. The streak moved him to No12 in the 155-pound rankings. However in December, Ismagulov stumbled to Arman Tsarukyan and in the process, broke his 19-fight winning streak that spanned from November 2015  to December 2022. He comes back to the octagon with a mission to bounce back from that setback and revitalize his quest for the lightweight title.

Stats wise, the Orenburg-born mixed martial artist fighting out of Kazakhstan has stopped 13 of his opponents, with 12 ending via knockout. He has averaged an impressive 3.78 significant strikes per minute at a rate of 42%. He has allowed 2.51 strikes to touch his body and has defended 62% of the attempts against him. In terms of grappling, Ismagulov has been able to land an average of 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes at an accuracy rate of 28%. His takedown defense is outstanding as he has stopped 75% of the attempts put up against him.

Grant Dawson

Dawson (19-1-1, 7-0-1 UFC) has been sensational since he stepped in the octagon for the first time in March 2019. The Cambria, Wisconsin native has yet to be beaten eight assignments, with seven resulting in victories. Dawson defeated Julian Erosa, Michael Trizano, Darrick Minner, Nad Marimani and Leonardo Santos before settling for a draw with Ricky Glenn in October 2021. He came back in April 2022 and won via a rear-naked choke submission over Jared Gordon. He would make it two in a row six months later when he submitted Mark Madsen. The 29-year-old has 13 of his 17 finishes via submission and the rest were knockouts.

In terms of fight metrics, Dawson has landed 3.12 significant strikes per minute at an excellent clip of 51%. The American’s defense has been good against the strikes, absorbing 2.41 strikes per minute and his defense rate is 45%. Dawson is a monster in terms of grappling with a takedown average of 3.8 per 15 minutes. As a fighter who places a premium in grappling, his takedown accuracy is an “active” 34%. His takedown defense is 40% and his submission rate is 1.55 per 15 minutes.