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UFC 295: Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira 11/11/2023 UFC Fight Picks, Predictions and Preview

UFC 295: Prochazka vs Pereira 11/11/2023 – Top light heavyweight contender and former UFC 205-pound titleholder Jiri Prochazka battles former UFC middleweight champion Alex Pereira in a five-round tussle for the vacant UFC light heavyweight championship on Saturday, November 11, at the Madison Square Garden in New York City. The match is one of the two title fights in the main card that is set to kick off at 11:00 PM ET with ESPN covering the showdown on television and UFC Fight Pass airing it via live stream.

Prochazka looks to recapture the 205-pound title he vacated due to injury while Pereira aims to become a two-division UFC champion. The Czech will fight for the first time since June 12, 2022. On the other hand, the Brazilian will fight for the fifth time since July 2, 2022, and the second time in the light heavyweight class. Online UFC betting odds are already updated for fight fans who want to earn money while watching a world-class match at the same time.

UFC 295: Prochazka vs Pereira 11/11/2023

When:Saturday, November 11, 2023, 11:00 PM ET
Where:Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York, USA
Stream:UFC Fight Pass

UFC 295: Prochazka vs Pereira 11/11/2023 Odds

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Jiri Prochazka+105Alex Pereira-125

Main Card

Jiri Prochazka

Before taking his talents to the UFC, Prochazka (29-3-1, 3-0 UFC) has won 26 of his first 30 fights and annexed light heavyweight titles in the Gladiator Fighting Championship and in Rizin Fighting Federation. He made a big impression in his first two UFC fights, winning both in similar two-round stoppages over Volkan Oezdemir (UFC 251; July 12, 2020) and Dominick Reyes (UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs Prochazka; May 1, 2021). Those victories arranged the Czech fighter to a title fight with Glover Teixeira in UFC 275 on June 12, 2022, in Singapore.

The match reached the fifth round and Prochazka was able to lock in a rear-naked choke to beat Teixeira with 28 seconds remaining in the match. The victory gave the Czech fighter the UFC light heavyweight title and his third title overall. He was about to defend the title in a rematch with Teixeira in December 2022 but days before the fight, Prochazka withdrew due to a right shoulder injury. Eleven months later, he comes back to the octagon and seeks to recapture the vacant 205-pound crown.

Stats wise, Prochazka has registered 28 wins via stoppages, with 25 coming by way of knockout and three by submissions. The Czech fighter has averaged 13 minutes and 17 seconds in his three UFC bouts, meaning that he has the cardio to endure longer fights. The 31-year-old has landed an average of 5.77 strikes per minute and has connected on 55% of his strikes. In terms of defense, Prochazka has defended 40% of the strikes launched against him and absorbed 5.40 strikes per minute. Grappling is not his strong facet as he has averaged 0.38 takedowns per 15 minutes. Although his takedown accuracy is 100%, his takedown defense is 68%. His submission average is 0.4 per 15 minutes.

Alex Pereira

Pereira (8-2, 5-1 UFC) has been a well-decorated kickboxer before taking his talents to the mixed martial arts circuit. The former Glory and WGP champion made his UFC debut in November 2021 and stopped Andreas Michailidis in the second round. He would secure two more wins against Bruno Silva (unanimous decision) and Sean Strickland (KO-1st round), giving the Brazilian an opportunity to fight UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. The fighter known as “Poatan” did not disappoint as he won over Adesanya via technical knockout in the fifth round in November 2022. Pereira had a return bout months later with Adesanya in April 2023 but he succumbed via knockout in the second round and lost the UFC 185-pound crown. He made his light heavyweight debut against Jan Blachowicz in July and won via split decision, giving him the opportunity to fight for the UFC light heavyweight crown against Prochazka.

Pereira has won six of his 10 MMA fights via knockout and decisioned two of his foes. He lost via submission and knockout. The Brazilian has landed an average of 5.11 strikes per minute and his accuracy is 62%. His striking defense rate is 51% and has been evasive against strikes with an average of 3.70 absorbed strikes per minute. In terms of grappling, Pereira has normed 0.22 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy rate of 100%. The Brazilian has a 70% takedown defense and a submission average of 0.2 per 15 minutes.

Prochazka vs Pereira Betting Numbers

Jiri Prochazka
Alex Pereira
Last FightWinWin
CountryCzech RepublicBrazil
Weight (lbs)205185
Reach (in)N/AN/A
Win by KO/TKO86%75%
Win by Submission10%0%
Strikes landed per minuteN/AN/A
Striking accuracyN/AN/A
Striking absorbed per minuteN/AN/A
Striking defenseN/AN/A
Takedown averageN/AN/A
Takedown accuracyN/AN/A
Takedown defenseN/AN/A
Submission averageN/AN/A

Prochazka vs Pereira Betting Picks

Prochazka will be the underdog in this fight as Pereira is the slight favorite in this bout, according to online betting picks and parlays that consistently cover the UFC. The Czech will have fight rust as his main enemy in this encounter as he has not fought in over a year. His Brazilian counterpart, however, will have an advantage in exposure. Poatan will come into the fight like a well-oiled machine with six fights to his credit in the past two years. The year-long break may be an advantage for Prochazka as he will fight motivated to secure the win and claim the title that he vacated. On the other hand, expect Pereira to be well-conditioned in this fight as this will be his seventh match since joining the UFC in November 2021.