UFC 291: Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje 07/29/2023 Picks, Preview and Fight Predictions

UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje 07/29/2023 – Lightweights Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje clash in the main event of UFC 291 on Saturday, July 29, at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. The five-round clash is the rematch of their first encounter in April 2018 in Glendale, Arizona, where Poirier won. Both fighters are ranked highly in the lightweight division with Poirier taking the No2 contender position and Gaethje occupying the No3 spot. Poirier is coming off a win against Michael Chandler while Gaethje is fresh from a majority decision victory over Rafael Fiziev.

The fight is for the symbolic “BMF” (baddest motherfucker) title that was vacated by original titleholder Jorge Masvidal, who retired in April. The winner of the match will move a step closer for an opportunity to fight again for the UFC lightweight title. MMA betting odds are already updated for mixed martial arts aficionados who want to watch a high-caliber slugfest and earn extra money at the same time.

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Main Card

Dustin Poirier

Poirier (29-7, 1 NC; 21-6, 1 NC) has been one of the most exciting fighters in the promotion as he 13 post-fight bonuses since he made his UFC debut on January 1, 2011. The former interim UFC lightweight champion has been involved in eight “Fight of the Night” matchups plus four Performance of the Night and one Submission of the Night honors across his sleeve. Poirier has been a decorated fighter as he had fought the likes of former champions Conor McGregor, Charles Oliveira, Max Holloway, Anthony Pettis, Eddie Alvarez and Khabib Nurmagomedov. In his last fight on November 12, 2022, the 34-year-old Lafayette native won over Michael Chandler via a third-round rear naked choke submission. The win over Chandler cemented his status as one of the top contenders in the 155-pound class and proved that he is ready for another opportunity to fight for the title.

In terms of statistics, Poirier has recorded 22 career stoppages, 14 of which were by knockout and the rest were submissions. However, his last two defeats were by submission to two of the best lightweights in the land – Oliveira and Nurmagomedov. He is coming into the fight two inches shorter but has a two-inch reach advantage against Gaethje. Poirier has landed an average of 5.51 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy rate of 50%. He has absorbed 4.25 strikes per minute and has defended 54% of the attempts against him. An all-around fighter, the American has averaged 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.24 submissions/15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 36% and his defense rate is 63%.

Justin Gaethje

Gaethje (24-4, 7-4 UFC) has been fed to the lions of the UFC’s lightweight ranks since his debut in the promotion in July 2017. Fortunately, the man known as “The Highlight” passed the tests put up on him. The 34-year-old battled with Alvarez, Poirier, Oliveira, Nurmagamedov, Donald Cerrone and Tony Ferguson and performed well, win or lose. In his last fight in March, Gaethje outclassed Fiziev via majority division, thus cementing the rematch against Poirier. He hopes to gain vengeance from that setback where he lasted four rounds. He is two inches taller than Poirier but his reach is shorter by two inches.

In terms of statistics, Gaethje recorded 20 finishes (19 knockouts, one submissions) during his career. He puts a premium on striking as he averages 7.38 significant strikes landed per minute. His significant strike accuracy rate is excellent at 60%. His defense percentage against strikes is 53% as he has absorbed 7.66 significant strikes per minute. Gaethje’s defense against takedowns compensates to his lack of takedowns. He has stopped 75% of the attempted takedowns against him. His takedown accuracy is 25% and has averaged 0.13 takedown per 15 minutes. He has not taken any submission attempts in his UFC career.