New Mexico State vs. Fresno State 12/16/23 – As the excitement for the NCAAF bowl season reaches its zenith, the New Mexico Bowl presents an intriguing matchup between the New Mexico State Aggies and the Fresno State Bulldogs. With the Aggies standing at 10-4 and the Bulldogs at a respectable 8-4, this game, scheduled for Saturday, December 16, 2023, is set to be a riveting display of collegiate football excellence. As enthusiasts and analysts churn out their NCAAF bowl latest predictions, this encounter promises to be a highlight of the season.
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State 12/16/23
|Saturday, December 16, 2023, at 5:45 PM ET
|New Mexico State
— New Mexico State Football (@NMStateFootball) December 13, 2023
Diego Pavia QB vs. Mikey Keene QB
Diego Pavia has been excellent for the Aggies this season, completing 61.6% of his 341 pass attempts for 2,915 yards, 26 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, good for an impressive 153.9 passer rating. His dual-threat ability makes him dangerous, with 643 rushing yards and 4 scores on the ground. Pavia excels at throwing under pressure and keeping plays alive with his legs. However, he has struggled with fumbles at times.
Meanwhile, Mikey Keene leads a talented Bulldogs offense, completing 65.8% of his passes for 2,596 yards, 21 touchdowns and 9 picks for a 136.1 rating. He operates the offense smoothly and spreads the ball around well, but can be streaky at times. Keene isn’t much of a running threat which could limit the offense against a good Aggies defense. He’ll need to avoid mistakes and cash in red zone trips.
Explosive Aggies Offense Takes On Stingy Bulldogs Defense
The Aggies offense has been on a tear, averaging 36 points per game behind the arm and legs of Pavia. Running back Star Thomas adds balance with 643 rushing yards and 4 scores. Top target Jonathan Brady is a big play threat, averaging 16.6 yards on his 37 catches with 4 touchdowns. The unit clicks well and has playmakers at all levels. They take on a sound Bulldogs defense allowing just 21 points per contest. Fresno State has been vulnerable against the pass at times but has 11 interceptions and can generate pressure, led by defensive end. If the defense can slow down Pavia and get him into difficult down and distance situations, they’ll have a chance. But the red hot Aggies offense poses a stiff challenge.
Bulldogs Rushing Attack Key Against Aggies Defense
On offense, Fresno State leans on running back Malik Sherrod and the ground game. Sherrod has rumbled for 876 yards, 5.8 yards per carry and 9 touchdowns behind a good offensive line. Sophomore wideout Erik Brooks is Keene’s top target with 711 yards and 5 scores. While the passing game has had its moments, the Bulldogs will look to pound the rock, control time of possession and keep the Aggies offense off the field. New Mexico State has been solid defensively, giving up just 16 points per contest. But they can be attacked on the ground, allowing 4.1 yards per carry.
NCAAF Betting Odds: New Mexico State Aggies -175, Over/Under: 51
The current betting odds favor the Aggies, with a moneyline of -175 and an over/under of 51. These odds reflect the Aggies’ strong season performance and their ability to cover spreads effectively.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends
New Mexico State are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Mexico State’s last 12 games.
New Mexico State are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Mexico State’s last 8 games against Fresno State.
New Mexico State are 3-15 SU in their last 18 games against an opponent in the Mountain West conference.
New Mexico State are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games against an opponent in the West Division division.
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Trends
Fresno State are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Fresno State’s last 6 games.
Fresno State are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games.
Fresno State are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against New Mexico State.
Bulldogs are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games against New Mexico State.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Fresno State’s last 5 games against an opponent in the Independents (FBS) conference.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Picks
Given the statistics and trends, the Aggies seem to have an edge in this matchup, particularly with their solid ATS record. However, the Bulldogs’ ability to win games outright cannot be underestimated.
In conclusion, the safer pick seems to be the Aggies, considering their overall performance and statistical advantages. For prop bets, looking at the under might be a wise choice, given both teams’ tendencies. For those looking at online betting websites, keeping an eye on the evolving odds and any late-breaking team news is crucial.
Score Prediction: New Mexico State 28, Fresno State 24