Liberty Flames vs. Oregon Ducks 1/1/24 NCAAF Fiesta Bowl Betting Picks

Liberty Flames vs. Oregon Ducks 1/1/24 – The college football bowl season kicks off with a bang as the undefeated Liberty Flames take on the two-loss Oregon Ducks in the Fiesta Bowl. With a spotless record and plenty of momentum, Liberty looks to cap off a Cinderella season with one last statement win. Meanwhile, Oregon hopes its dynamic offense will overwhelm first-time bowl participants Liberty. This clash of styles makes for an intriguing matchup. Read on for a full game breakdown, betting trends, and college football bowl free picks.

Team	SP/RL	TOTAL	ML
Flames	+18 -107	o68 -110	+700
Ducks	-18 -113	u68 -110	-1100

don’t get FOMO, Tune in! pic.twitter.com/fIErxBJZPn

— Liberty Football (@LibertyFootball) January 1, 2024

Kaidon Salter QB vs. Bo Nix QB

Liberty quarterback Kaidon Salter has emerged as one of college football’s most dangerous dual-threats in just his second season. The sophomore makes magic happen with both his arm and legs, racking up over 2750 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, and a sterling 182.4 passer rating. He puts relentless pressure on defenses with his cannon arm and breakaway speed. Salter has a special improvisational quality, able to turn busted plays into big gains. However, the young QB has yet to face a defense as disciplined and talented as Oregon’s. The Ducks will focus on keeping Salter contained in the pocket and force him to win with his arm. 

On the other side, Oregon quarterback Bo Nix enjoyed a redemption year in his first season since transferring from Auburn. The battle-tested senior threw for over 4000 yards and 40 TDs while displaying polish, poise, and leadership. Nix excels at efficiently spreading the ball around to his dangerous playmakers. He also brings underrated mobility, able to pick up chunk yards when the pocket collapses. The veteran has a savvy situational awareness you can’t teach. If Oregon gets in trouble, expect Nix to calmly assess his options rather than panic.

Flames Offense Primed for Shootout

Between Salter’s playmaking and RB Quinton Cooley’s 1600+ total yards and 16 scores, Liberty fields a balanced, explosive attack. The Flames average over 40 points per game and seemingly score at will. Against Oregon’s bend-don’t-break defense, expect Salter and Cooley to rack up yards and points in bunches. However, they must finish drives as FGs won’t get it done against the high-flying Ducks.

Ducks Look to Fly High

Oregon’s elite offense predicates itself on speed. With Nix at the controls, running back Bucky Irving and receiver Troy Franklin provide big-play ability. This trio has accounted for nearly 7000 total yards and 64 touchdowns. An opportunistic Ducks defense generates extra chances for Oregon’s playmakers. If Nix avoids turnovers, Oregon should pile up points. Liberty must force stops and control tempo to have a chance.

NCAAF Betting Odds: Oregon Ducks -16.5, Over/Under: 68

Despite Liberty’s unbeaten record, oddsmakers install Oregon as a 16.5 point favorite. This line indicates expectations of a shootout where the Ducks’ offense eventually overwhelms an outmatched Flames defense. The over/under of 68 points also suggests a high-scoring contest.

Trends

Liberty Flames Betting Trends

Liberty are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Liberty’s last 7 games.
Liberty are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.
Liberty are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing as the underdog.

Oregon Ducks Betting Trends

Oregon are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Oregon’s last 18 games.
Oregon are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon’s last 5 games played on a Monday.
Oregon are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games when playing as the favourite.