New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames 12/1/23 – The New Mexico State Aggies (10-3) will clash with the undefeated Liberty Flames (12-0) in a pivotal late-season NCAAF showdown. With bowl eligibility and conference standing implications on the line, expect both sides to leave everything on the field. Fans and bettors are keenly eyeing the NCAAF betting prediction for this face-off.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames 12/1/23
| When: | Friday, December 1, 7:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| Where: | Williams Stadium |
| TV: | CBSSN |
| Stream: | SofaScore |
| Team | SP/RL | TOTAL | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggies | +11 -110 | o57 -110 | +340 |  |
| Flames | -11 -110 | u57 -110 | -420 | |
| ||||
𝐓𝐢𝐭𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤.#AggieUp x #HHLP pic.twitter.com/OKQDgjmLir
— New Mexico State Football (@NMStateFootball) November 27, 2023
Diego Pavia QB vs. Kaidon Salter QB
Pavia has put together an excellent 2023 campaign for the Aggies, amassing over 2,700 passing yards and 23 touchdowns while completing 61.2% of his attempts. His mobile playing style and ability to evade pressure have been key assets, though he has shown some inconsistency facing elite defenses. Pavia will need his best performance yet to outduel Liberty’s high-octane offense.
Meanwhile, Salter has emerged as an early Heisman favorite at quarterback, terrorizing teams with his cannon arm and rushing prowess. He leads the nation with a 179.2 passer rating and has produced 29 passing touchdowns plus another 13 on the ground. Salter’s rare combination of skills stresses every defense he’s faced this year. New Mexico State must contain his explosive talents to have any upset hopes.
New Mexico State Backfield Analysis : Leader of the Pack
While Pavia garners the headlines at quarterback, running back Star Thomas has been instrumental in New Mexico State’s resurgent season. A compact bulldozer of a back, Thomas averages nearly six yards per carry behind an elite offensive line. He’s scored four times in the past three contests, so look for the Aggies to establish Thomas early against the Liberty front seven. Controlling the tempo and game script will be vital if New Mexico State plans to hang around late against the heavily favored Flames.
Liberty Playmakers: Big-Play Threats
Liberty fields a surplus of dangerous weapons, headlined by running back Quinton Cooley. A shifty, tackle-breaking machine, Cooley has racked up 1,251 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns this year, including a 205-yard outburst last week. New Mexico State must swarm Cooley at the line of scrimmage and limit his second-level jaunts.
Meanwhile, wideout CJ Daniels continues to develop a lethal connection with Salter. Daniels has topped 100 yards four times in 2022, using his blazing speed and impressive size to rip off huge plays. New Mexico State’s secondary has held up reasonably well in coverage but hasn’t encountered many receivers with Daniels’ rare physical gifts. He could be poised for a statement game.
NCAAF Betting Odds: Liberty Flames -385, Over/Under: 55.5
Despite New Mexico State’s admirable late-season push, oddsmakers still view Liberty as nearly two-touchdown favorites for Friday night’s showdown. And frankly, it’s hard to disagree given how utterly dominant the Flames have looked. The Over/Under line of 55.5 points also shows confidence in Liberty’s high-flying offense. Still, with bowl eligibility hanging in the balance, don’t underestimate the Aggies’ motivation and reasonably potent offense led by Diego Pavia. This spread appears slightly inflated, so taking the points with the visitors seems advisable.
Trends
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends
New Mexico State are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Mexico State’s last 7 games.
New Mexico State are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games.
Aggies are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Liberty.
New Mexico State are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Mexico State’s last 6 games against an opponent in the Independents (FBS) conference.
Liberty Flames Betting Trends
Liberty are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Liberty’s last 6 games.
Liberty are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.
Flames are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games at home.
Liberty are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games against an opponent in the Independents (FBS) conference.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames Betting Picks
Based on the analysis and betting trends, Liberty Flames appear to have the upper hand, thanks to their robust offense and stout defense. However, New Mexico State’s impressive ATS record and recent form make them a tough competitor.
For those exploring top betting websites, considering prop bets on individual performances, particularly quarterbacks Pavia and Salter, could be insightful. Given the offensive strengths of both teams, the over/under might lean towards OVER.
Score Prediction: Liberty 34, New Mexico State 28
