In 2025, The Everest attracts a whopping $20 million in prize money, establishing it as the richest race in Australia as well as the richest turf sprint in the world. Such prize money attracts the attention of elite trainers, international sprinters, and value-seeking punters from all around. Serious bettors have probably scouted out the best racebook sites.
This is what the following breakdown will offer you: an analytical approach detailing how The Everest is positioned in 2025; contextualization from previous years in terms of barriers, trends, and betting patterns; actionable strategic insights; and predicted possible scenarios for this edition. Followed by betting recommendations, we will answer frequently asked questions, provide key insights, and direct you to BetNow. Let’s get started.
Speed, Stakes & Money Flow: The Core Battle
In regards to 2025, indications suggest that nearly 60% of all betting money is placed on Ka Ying Rising, with that figure escalating to 80% for multis bets. Such concentrated backing is unprecedented in Everest’s history, from a monetary standpoint. However, heavily backed horses in the market can also lead to value betting opportunities on the less supported secondary horses. This is typical player value behavior.
Due to the nature of slot arrangements, which in the past cost 600,000 to 700,000, there is a natural barrier set for owners. Given this, owners must be selective and, as a result, the lineup possesses a high cumulative quality. This is in stark contrast to 2024 and the years prior, as few of the betting favorites delivered on winning. In the past eight editions of this race, three of the favorites have won, which contributes to the overall prediction market inefficiency displayed.
In this scenario, we advise players that with the market inefficiency, big betting favorites lead, there will be extended underlay and drift in value. Given that, watchers and bettors should focus on the out-of-favor contenders that still meet key criteria (form, barrier, matchup) and avoid big betting favorites.
Trends in the data also tend to remain constant. One such trend is that recent editions of the Everest have had winning horses that ran to a value of 112+ RPR in the preceding race. Historically, horses drawn in barriers 5 to 7 and the inside have also seen success.
Additionally, almost every previous champion has recently competed in similarly classed races or at Randwick itself.
As a result, the main contention here is whether to support the dominant favorite or seek an opportunity to bet across other markets. Market liquidity indicates that a lot is likely transpiring in the background.
Contextual Comparisons & Field Dynamics
In order to understand what 2025’s field might look like, we must examine previous editions. The Everest has enjoyed a gradual progression in its short history. Starting as a “special conditions” race, The Everest attained full Group 1 status in 2024. The anticipated Group 1 status adds significant international interest as trainers may consider entering their horses for competition.
Winning times in past editions fluctuate within a certain range. The fastest time in the last 8 editions of The Everest is 1:07.32 which was set by Yes Yes Yes in 2019, and the most recent winner Think About It set a time of 1:07.64 in 2023. The slowest in recent history was Redzel’s time of 1:12.30 in 2018. The time variances could be attributed to a combination of track conditions, race pace, and the quality and strength of the competitors.
The Human Element and Race Dynamics
Chris Waller is a prominent track figure, as he owns multiple Everest victories (Yes Yes Yes, Nature Strip) as well as a number of placings. Kerrin McEvoy has unrivaled success in the race and is crowned the leading winning jockey. The intricacies of the human element in each race could be attributed to multiple Everest and Redzel’s time.
The specified time slots only allow for the elite performers. This somewhat diminishes the variance from surprise outsiders, but it does also mean that one underestimated runner in positive conditions can offer considerable value. Over the years, the winning horses have most often come from those that performed well in the Premier Stakes and TJ Smith Stakes.
To summarize, the status of 2025 is considerable, as is the history associated with it. It is most likely that we have a more competitive field than in previous years and the comparisons have highlighted the most likely contenders, in particular those that have performed well in the top-level sprints at Randwick.
Applying Tactics: Your Betting Playbook
Recognizing the right betting opportunities is just the beginning; successful execution distinguishes seasoned punters from novices.
1. Don’t overcommit to the favorite
In the case of Ka Ying Rising, the market is very stacked. If you back him at high odds, the expected return is very low. It is better to place small amounts of the money on the favorite and invest the rest elsewhere.
2. Focus on a strong barrier draw & course form
Horses that have performed well at Randwick, or are projected to have good course or barrier positions, are to be given more weight. In the past, horses with inside to middle draws have gained an edge, so combine that with previous course form to find value.
3. Leverage exotic betting options
The Everest provides exotic betting opportunities (exacta, trifecta, first four). Since some horses could be undervalued, making the small exotic bets provides high return potential with low risk.
4. Watch for late market shifts
If money is coming in a certain way, the last-minute line shifts, particularly in the 30–60 minute zone before the race, can highlight confidence. You should adjust sthe takes or hedge.
5. Set risk and bankroll limits
Be sure to avoid raising stakes on the hype. Since the race is slot-based and the fields are tight, it is easy to take a big loss. Long-term, to protect your capital, the stakes should be controlled within the betting units.
When comparing odds or analyzing form trends, checking a few trusted horse race betting sites can help you spot mispriced runners before markets move.
What’s Next: Projections & Scenarios
Here’s where we are willing to position the bias: notwithstanding the impressive dominance of Ka Ying Rising, his defeats remain possible. The competition has sufficient depth for pace map-aligned underdogs to take advantage.
- Most likely scenario: Ka Ying Rising will win the race, where the dividend will be less than the payout expected. Anticipate competitors such as Joliestar, Jimmysstar, and Briasa to offer a significant fight, particularly when the pace is compromised as the race gets to the middle stages.
- Alternate scenario: a mid-tier barrier runner such as Joliestar (barrier 5, lighter weight) could be expected to fly home. The risk continues to be poor pace or congestion, while the rewards could be significant.
- Surprise scenario: when the early fractions are overly slow, or the conditions of the racecourse are poor (soft patches, crosswinds), a poorly regarded closer could be latched to sneak through. This is where value bets become more compelling.
- On the markets: in the last minutes, and while bets concentrate around Ka Ying, in the middle of the market expected over-round will widen. The drift of the non-market will present value opportunities. Expect distortion from multis and large-expected value bets on the lesser choices as they are in a set of bets. This will be a good focus for distortion.
Ka Ying is the expected best-case scenario. Seek and identify structural mispriced alternatives to gain market inefficiencies based on barriers, form, and pace. The richest of the rich is the market on turf, and it is inviting.
Expert Insights: Sharpen Your Edge
- Focus on market skews instead of crowd noise. Instead of pursuing favorites that are overvalued, look for gaps in the market where value is hidden.
- Form history has been surpassed by recent performances. Stats from a horse’s entire career are less meaningful than recent performances at similar distances and on the same track.
- Trust proven jockey–trainer partnerships. Pressure and competition require specific skills, and top-performing partnerships in big races will win more often than their peers.
- Place win and exotic bets. Keep most of your stake on solid picks, but use smaller exotics for high-return opportunities.
- Betting timing is crucial. Wait for late odds movement, which signifies market confidence, but act before prices change significantly.
- Stay disciplined. If your horse is not performing, mentally accept the loss and avoid emotional chasing.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What makes The Everest different from other horse races?
A: The Everest is unique as a “slot-based” race, where only 12 horses can run, and owners have to pay a large sum to secure a position well in advance. This race is also considered a weight-for-age competition, and it draws elite global sprinters, as well as having one of the highest turf prize payouts in the world.
Q: How important is the barrier draw in The Everest?
A: The barrier draw is very important. The middle and inside draws (bars 4–7) have historically produced more winners. The far outside barriers can also win, but they need more speed or a favorable race shape to do so.
Q: Should I always back the favorite in big races?
A: No. In high-prestige races like The Everest, the favorites often have short odds that misrepresent true value, so it is more sensible to back the undervalued alternatives or to combine the favorites with overlays in exotic bets.
Q: What role do exotic bets (trifecta, first four) play?
A: Exotic bets allow you to capture the upside from under-ranked horses without investing your entire bankroll. Since the field is limited to 12, exotic outcomes become more predictable, and you can place bets as adjuncts to your core picks.
Q: When is the best time to place bets on The Everest?
A: Late—within 1 hour before race—as money flow crystallizes lines. But secure your position earlier if incoming odds are favorable and your pick has upward momentum.
Q: Can local track bias or weather play a hidden role?
A: Absolutely. Randwick’s the track. If it rains, the inside ground may favor speed or closers, depending on how the track plays. Always check final conditions and adjust your lean accordingly.
Q: How to Spot Value Bets in Horse Racing?
A: Look for situations where a horse’s implied odds (1 divided by the decimal odds) underestimate its true winning chance. Analyze recent form, barrier draw, jockey record, and track condition. If your estimated probability is higher than what the odds imply, that’s when you’ve found genuine horse racing value bets worth considering.
Key Takeaways & BetNow Nudge
Let’s recap what matters in The Everest 2025:
- The money is heavily backing Ka Ying Rising, but that creates hidden value elsewhere.
- Barrier position, form at Randwick, and recent sprint class are essential filters.
- Use exotic bets and complementary hedges rather than putting your full stake on one runner.
- Late market shifts, jockey/trainer experience, and race shape can flip value in minutes.
If you take away one thing: betting smart is not about backing the biggest name — it’s about spotting mispriced opportunity under pressure. The Everest is as much a test of your analysis as of the horses’ speed.
Want to act now? Head to BetNow and apply what we’ve covered—lock in your picks, watch movement, and let your disciplined strategy do the work.
Hilbert Mayer
Sports Writer
Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.
Published on: October 17, 2025
Last updated: October 20, 2025