Arman Tsarukyan holds a 22-3 pro MMA record and is currently #2 in the UFC lightweight rankings, just behind champ Ilia Topuria. Meanwhile, Paddy Pimblett has run his UFC streak to 7 wins in the lightweight division, with highlights, fan appeal, but faces critics over the quality of opposition.
For bettors looking into UFC betting online sites, the big question is: Does Pimblett deserve to leapfrog Tsarukyan for the next lightweight title shot or is it meritocracy all the way?
You’ll get a clear breakdown of:
- where stats and recent activity stack up between Tsarukyan vs. Pimblett,
- how UFC matchmaking, rankings, and marketability factor in,
- what actions you as bettor might take based on current trends,
- projection: who looks most likely to get Topuria next, and when.
Tsarukyan’s Activity, Ranking & Recent Wins
Tsarukyan’s resume is quite remarkable. He was set to fight Islam Makhachev for the lightweight title after defeating Charles Oliveira by split decision at UFC 300 in April 2024, but a back injury pulled him from the fight days before the scheduled date for UFC 311. In the time leading up to that, he had won four consecutive fights in MMA. He’s kept himself busy with other activities in the meantime: he accepted a superfight with former lightweight champion Benson Henderson on September 19, 2025, at ACBJJ 18.
Tsarukyan’s positions:
- #2 in UFC lightweight ranks as of mid-September 2025.
- Strong wins over recognized opponents.
In recent performances as well as in his current meritorious standing, he possesses good reasons to offer rational and well-thought-out ideas about a problem. There are benefits of staying active in a sport, as it helps with better visual engagement. Ever since he withdrew from the title fight, for example, he has been almost invisible within MMA, but he is still very much relevant.
Pimblett’s Appeal & Weaknesses in Comparison
Currently, “The Baddy” has a record of 23-3 professionally, and 7 uninterrupted lightweight victories in the UFC. His proficiency in performance, coupled with his online activity and fandom, has gained him a remarkable reputation in the sport. All of which, undeniably, contributes to the UFC matchmaking process. There is a certain level of interest in a fight with Ilia Topura, and the cage fight at UFC 317 seems to have escalated it even more.
Paddy is being unfairly criticized for his recent matches, as he has one of the weakest opposing records in the sport. Even Tsarukyan views many of the fighters as coming off losing streaks or with poor performance. Furthermore, Pimblett’s resume lacks significant victories against the top-ranked lightweights, a diss Tsarukyan does not face. The ability to sell tickets suggests the public will be more likely to support him in a fight for the belt before Tsarukyan, but that is a sentiment felt by many, which lacks substantial backing.
Matchmaking, Marketability, & the Betting Guide Factor
Matchmaking isn’t all about wins and losses. It’s a mix of ranking, availability, injury, promotional value, and timing. Tsarukyan’s injury withdrawal from UFC 311 gave space for him space to be passed over. Dana White and UFC’s leadership are frequently discussed in media, saying Topuria might defend next against Pimblett over Tsarukyan or Justin Gaethje because Pimblett brings more eyeballs, more promotion.
From a betting perspective, that means odds might move in Pimblett’s favor not because his skills are clearly superior to Tsarukyan’s, but because of hype, demand, and market size. The concept of a UFC betting guide often emphasizes weighing both fighter merit and external factors like marketability when judging value bets.
So even if Tsarukyan has stronger credentials, Pimblett could still get the next shot if the UFC sees bigger returns.
Betting Implications & Reader Action Steps
If you’re putting money on this situation, here’s what to watch & where value may lie:
Monitor official UFC announcements: whose confirmed vs speculated on official sites after each UFC announcement. The rumors regarding Pinnblett-Topuria fights may spike Pinnblett’s odds early. If Tsarukyan is confirmed as a backup or gets an interim fight that he is highly likely to get, that may change line value.
Compare odds movement: Pimblett is likely to open less “deserved” but more hyped; Tsarukyan is likely to be an underdog or slight favorite depending on the the book. The odds are likely being overvalued if Pinnblett is being paired early on without a match.
Seek cross-promotion value (props): over/under bets on rounds, method (KO, decision), or whether Tsarukyan gets his shot next vs Pimblett.
Keep in mind injury risk: Tsarukyan’s history of a back injury pulled him out before UFC 311. If there are weight cut/medical news, those are the things that could shift things the most.
Who’s Most Likely & When
Given current data, rankings, and public sentiment:
Ilia Topuria became champion recently; as of now, the specifics of his title defense have not been made public. According to Tsarukyan, Topuria’s next fight will likely be against Pimblett.
Tsarukyan, perhaps most likely, remains in the mix: unless he experiences yet another setback, his ranking does grant him priority.
The UFC may be inclined to book Pimblett vs Topuria in the near future, as Pimblett does very well in generating fan interest, and the conflict with Topuria is marketable.
However, taking fire from the public is not the UFC’s goal, and therefore, may still need Tsarukyan to cover as a main event for a title, high-level ranked fight before he is eligible for a title shot. Possibly an interim title fight or a big name.
Based on the current information available, it is likely that the UFC will announce the next defense for Topuria in the next few months. If Pimblett is the called-upon challenger, it might be as late as late 2025. If Tsarukyan is the chosen fighter, it would likely be early 2026, depending on his fight activity, availability, and injury status.
Tips for Betting Smarter on This Dynamic
Check Rankings – Tsarukyan is #2, Pimblett #9. After major fights, rankings change, so track updates for value.
Monitor Health – Injuries and weight cuts change Tsarukyan’s odds. If he shows medical issues, avoid heavy bets.
Factor Hype vs Merit – Pimblett’s popularity will likely inflate odds. That creates value on Tsarukyan in the upset/prop markets.
Look at Prop & Backup Bets – Futures like “next title challenger” often take better odds earlier.
Diversify Bets – Combine methods, rounds, and outcomes. Tsarukyan often wins by grappling/decision, and Pimblett finishes more.
Use Multiple Sportsbooks – Odds will likely differ across several UFC betting online sites. Look for the best lines or arbitrage.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Who is ranked higher: Tsarukyan or Pimblett in UFC lightweight?
A: Tsarukyan sits at #2 lightweight in UFC and most reports have Pimblett at #9. This means Tsarukyan has a stronger claim based on history and performance.
Q: What are Pimblett’s strengths that make fans want him next?
A: Pimblett has a winning streak of seven in UFC lightweight, coupled with quality fan interaction and iconic instances such as the Topuria face-offs, while very sizable and entertaining striking, and valuable public attention all add together to a strong case.
Q: What has Tsarukyan done lately to support his claim?
A: Recent victories of his include: Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush, and Joaquim Silva; however, Oliveira’s was by split decision, while Dariush suffered a quick KO. It should also be noted that he was supposed to fight for the title at UFC 311; however, his injury kept him from that fight. In addition, the active participation in grappling keeps him active.
Q: How do external factors (marketability, hype) influence who gets the next title shot?
A: Much more than that. The UFC, as a business, is associating profitable matchups and fame with trackable fighters. In this case, Pimblett captures a certain type of fandom and has an audience for reasons some think are merits, that are devoid of any substance.
Q: When betting, what are common mistakes in predicting title challenger?
A: Assuming that a fighter is popular and therefore ready; ranking burnout; injuries and inactivity; lack of patience prior to an official confirmation and lack of value to recent attention grabbing fights compared to winning streaks.
Q: How Expert Picks Improve Success Rates on UFC Betting Sites
A: Expert picks factor in more than just win/loss—they account for rankings, styles, injuries, fighter momentum, and insider info. On trusted UFC betting sites, these expert breakdowns often spot shifts in odds before the public does, giving bettors an edge using those insights.
Q: What odds might look like if Pimblett vs Topuria is announced vs Tsarukyan vs Topuria?
A: If Pimblett is officially announced, he might open as underdog but with shorter odds due to hype. Tsarukyan vs Topuria would likely show closer to even or Tsarukyan slight underdog depending on public sentiment. Odds movement might favor Pimblett early in announcement phase.
Q: What should bettors watch for to know Tsarukyan is truly next?
A: UFC or promoter statements confirming him as next, or as backup. No major injuries, medical clearances. Recent active fights or grappling wins to show sharpness. Publicly matched high‐ranked opponent to build momentum.
Tsarukyan vs Pimblett’s Title Picture
Three takeaways stand out: First, Arman Tsarukyan has the merit — ranking, wins, consistency — that make him the safer bet for the next real title shot. Second, Paddy Pimblett brings hype, showmanship, and fan draw, which give promoters a reason to choose him for “sellable” matchups. Third, external factors like injuries, promotion, and timing are proving as important as fight record.
For bettors using UFC betting online sites, this is a moment to stay alert. Odds will shift fast if official confirmation comes for either contender. If you believe merit should win, Tsarukyan might represent better value now. If you believe hype wins in matchmaking, Pimblett could overdeliver.
Ready to place your bet? Keep watching announcements, keep comparing odds, and when the fight gets official, BetNow has you covered to lock in best value.
Hilbert Mayer
Sports Writer
Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.
Published on: September 19, 2025
Last updated: September 22, 2025