In the realm of combat sports, the trajectory of one’s career may take a dramatic turn in a few short bouts. This was the case for Dominick Reyes. The former UFC light heavyweight title challenger went from almost dethroning Jon Jones in 2020 to four consecutive losses, three of which were by knockout. After a striking turn of events, he will be arriving at UFC Fight Night in Perth, Australia, after a three-stoppage win streak.
This event matters for fans, fighters, and bettors alike. The Reyes vs. Carlos Ulberg headliner could determine the next title contender at 205 pounds. Both men are ranked in the top 10, with Reyes sitting at No. 7 and Ulberg at No. 3. For those looking at UFC Fight Night betting online, this matchup is as much about styles and momentum as it is about rankings.
We shall analyze Reyes’ resurgence alongside Ulberg’s rise and derive conclusions for betting lines. You will receive performance analysis, comparisons, applicable betting value, and a division outlook. After, you will grasp the title-level importance of this fight and the betting approach to it.
Reyes’ Revival and What It Means
Reyes has a story to tell in terms of survival and adjustment. Following the disputed decision loss to Jon Jones at UFC 247, many considered him to be the uncrowned champion. Instead of ascending to the top, however, he hit the worst slide in the history of his career. He suffered a loss to Jan Blachowicz in 2020, and in 2021, Jiri Prochazka knocked him out cold. He was put away in only 80 seconds in 2022 by Ryan Spann. In all, he suffered four losses, three of which were brutal knockouts, and he was placed on the sidelines for 15 months, which nearly signalled the end of his career.
Now in 2025, he is 35, fighting once again with a new purpose. He has now completed three consecutive finishes with wins over Dustin Jacoby, Anthony Smith, and Nikita Krylov, which have allowed him to re-establish his relevance. He credits the change to his training camps in session with Glover Teixeira and Alex Pereira, and to a mental reset based on gratitude and faith.
A once-defeated fighter is now perceived to be a threat. Ulberg is the current underdog in the 2-to-1 range, which shows the public is doubtful. Having said this, the aging Reyes shows the public the form in which he should be considered.
Ulberg’s Streak and Why It Matters
With an 8-fight win streak, Carlos Ulberg is 12-1 and is ranked 3rd, and has steadily progressed as a New Zealand striker. There has been power, athleticism, and composure but his last few fights have been somewhat more subdued. This lack of excitement, in a win at a level where every victory is scrutinized and assessed, speaks to the worthiness of a ‘title shot’, and becomes an issue.
Reyes has framed it simply. Ulberg lacks a signature win, and beating Reyes may provide that win, as history has shown: beating Reyes generally leads to title contention. Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka both won the title after beating Reyes. This is understood by Ulberg and by the bettors.
Carrying out the analysis for UFC Fight Night betting online is where Reyes’ betting odds being underestimated becomes clear. Ulberg has hype, but Reyes has volatility. Ulberg has the momentum, but Reyes has the experience. This imbalance has created a narrative that sets the veteran looking for redemption against the contender seeking validation.
Betting Angles and Practical Takeaways
From a betting perspective, this fight concerns timing, momentum, and intangibles. Reyes has championship-level experience and almost beat Jon Jones. Ulberg has not fought anyone near that level of competition. Still, Ulberg is the betting favorite due to his winning streak and owing to Reyes’ prior knockout losses.
Key angles to consider:
Durability: Reyes’ chin has been tested before, but given his recent three-fight run, there appears to be improvements in his defense and in his ability to remain composed.
Finishing ability: Both fighters possess stoppage power. Reyes’ last three wins were finishes and Ulberg has five knockouts in his career in the UFC.
Experience gap: Reyes has headlined several five-round fights, while Ulberg has not. This becomes important if the fight goes long.
This is also where UFC expert betting picks come into play. Some will lean toward Ulberg’s momentum, others toward Reyes’ resurgence. The underdog price on Reyes offers value if you believe his evolution is real.
What Comes Next for the Division
The UFC light heavyweight division is undergoing a transition. The title picture is still settling down, with champions and contenders highly on the move. A victory for Reyes is more likely to put him in contention for the title, or if circumstances align, he could contend for it right away. With a victory, Ulberg could also, as a function of his ranking, secure a title.
The UFC still tends to reward the build of fighters. While Ulberg’s eight straight wins do look favourable, there’s still Reyes with the more rentable redemption story after personally marketing it with the UFC’s help. Considering he nearly dethroned Jon Jones as champion, and because of his notoriety, the UFC will also help push marketing for him to the title.
As it is, for the betting placement in the market, it is also final. Both are fighting for a lucrative reward coming this Saturday. The odds they set define their market. The UFC has set future title fight betting shifts on the fight’s result as the expected primary betting shifts.
Expert Insights
Underdog Value
Reyes being at +200 provides potential for value. He has demonstrated adjustments and sustained momentum. Additionally, underdog fighters who possess finishing potential will always give betting opportunities.
Live Betting Potential
There will be opportunities for live betting after round 2, Reyes, because he has 5 rounds of experience, and if he survives the initial exchanges, momentum will likely favor him.
Method of Victory Bets
Given that both fighters are finishers, the “fight doesn’t go the distance” markets will align with their histories.
Experience vs. Momentum
Bettors should weigh Reyes’ championship rounds experience against Ulberg’s winning streak. That contrast defines this matchup.
Public Perception Impact
Ulberg’s hype may inflate his odds. Smart bettors can capitalize on the discrepancy between perception and actual matchup factors.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: How do I bet on UFC Fight Night online?
A: You can place bets through licensed sportsbooks offering UFC markets. Options include moneyline, over/under rounds, method of victory, and live betting. Always confirm local laws and use regulated platforms.
Q: Is Dominick Reyes worth betting on as an underdog?
A: Reyes offers value due to experience and recent form. His underdog odds mean a win pays out more. But bettors should weigh his knockout losses against his resurgence before deciding.
Q: How does fighter momentum impact betting lines?
A: Momentum often drives public betting and odds movement. Ulberg’s streak makes him the favorite, but oddsmakers also account for Reyes’ past struggles. Savvy bettors look past momentum to style matchups.
Q: Should I bet on method of victory or moneyline?
A: Moneyline is straightforward, but method of victory bets (KO/TKO, submission, decision) can offer higher payouts. In this fight, given both men’s finishing ability, stoppage props may hold value.
Q: Can experience really outweigh momentum?
A: Yes. Reyes has fought five-round wars at championship level. Ulberg has not. That difference could matter if the fight goes long, especially in a close contest.
Q: What are the risks of betting on UFC Fight Night?
A: The main risks are volatility and unpredictability. One punch can end a fight, making outcomes harder to forecast than in team sports. Always bet responsibly and avoid overexposure.
Q: What Fight Metrics Matter in UFC Sportsbook Betting?
A: Key metrics in UFC sportsbook betting include striking accuracy, striking defense, takedown defense, and durability. For five-round fights, cardio and prior main event experience also matter. These stats help predict outcomes beyond just win streaks and give bettors a clearer edge when analyzing matchups.
Q: When is the best time to place UFC bets?
A: Odds move as fight night approaches. Early lines may offer value, but late betting allows you to factor in weigh-ins, interviews, and market shifts. Timing depends on your risk tolerance.
Reyes at the Crossroads: Why This Fight Matters
Dominick Reyes’ career comeback is more than a personal story — it’s a betting opportunity and a divisional shakeup. His three-fight win streak has put him back in the mix, while Carlos Ulberg is chasing his first true signature victory. Both fighters bring power, reach, and top-10 rankings into the cage.
For those following UFC Fight Night betting online, the key takeaways are clear: Reyes is an underdog with real upside, Ulberg carries momentum but faces his toughest test, and the winner likely moves into title contention. Add the backdrop of Reyes’ resilience, Ulberg’s streak, and the stakes in the light heavyweight division, and you have one of the most meaningful fights of the year.
Fans and bettors should watch closely. The outcome in Perth could reshape the 205-pound division. If you’re looking to make your pick, consider the angles, weigh the risks, and place your bet confidently at BetNow.
Hilbert Mayer
Sports Writer
Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.
Published on: September 26, 2025
Last updated: September 28, 2025