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UFC on ESPN+ 11 Betting Preview & Sportsbook Odds

Posted by: Charlie Smith
UFC on ESPN+ 11 Betting Preview

The year’s UFC online betting continues this weekend with UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith, giving us a light heavyweight matchup to look forward to. Gustafsson is coming off his now infamous loss to Jon Jones at UFC 232 and will be looking to raise his stock this weekend by taking on an MMA veteran. Similarly, Smith is coming off a decision loss at the hands of Jones and will be vying to prove he’s the better man this Saturday. So will this weekend’s sports betting odds favor the home kid or will they stick with the veteran?

UFC on ESPN+ 11: Gustafsson vs. Smith – Saturday, June 1st     

When: Prelims: 9:00 am ET || Main Card: 12:00 pm ET

Where: Ericsson Globe, Stockholm, Sweden

TV: Prelims: ESPN 2 || Main Card: ESPN+

Stream: Drama on TNT, NBA League Pass

The UFC will be making another trip to Sweden this weekend, giving Gustafsson the home town advantage. Gustafsson’s bout will be the third and final light heavyweight matchup of the main card. Also fighting on the main card is Volkan Oezdemir who will be taking on Ilir Latifi. Oezdemir is on a crippling 3 fight losing streak following his TKO loss to then champion Daniel Cormier at UFC 220. Additionally, Jimi Manuwa will be taking on Aleksandar Rakic this Saturday.

Main Card & UFC on ESPN+ 11 Betting Odds

Fighter Odds Fighter Odds
Anthony Smith +265 Alexander Gustafsson -325
Ilir Latifi EV Volkan Oezdemir -120
Jimi Manuwa +190 Aleksandar Rakic -230
Makwan Amirkhani EV Chris Fishgold -120
Christos Giagos +155 Damir Hadzovic -175
Daniel Teymur +125 Sung Bin Jo -145
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As aforementioned, Anthony Smith is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Jon Jones. Despite the fact that Jones was deducted two points in the 4th for an illegal knee, Jones was able to walk away with the victory handily. It was a big setback for Smith who had mounted a 3-fight winning streak to earn the title shot. Now it’s back to the drawing board since a win this Saturday doesn’t necessarily guarantee another shot at the title. After all, Jones knocked Gustafsson out cold. What could Smith deliver this weekend that would be more impressive than that?

Comparatively Gustafsson is in a worse situation than Smith. After all, he was the one humbled by Jones fist at UFC 232. Having lost that bout so decisively, it’s tough to imagine Gustafsson getting yet another title shot. All in all Gustafsson has now fought for the UFC Light Heavyweight title 3 times now; twice to Jones and once against Cormier. Although his decision loss to Cormier came via split decision, his two losses against Jones have been much more decisive. Unless someone else gets the belt from Jones, it’s tough to imagine this Swede getting another crack.

As for this Saturday’s bout, there’s no question that Smith has seen more things inside the cage than his opponent. With 45 fights under his belt, there’s few people who don’t fit under that umbrella. With 11 submission wins, one would be tempted to give Smith an advantage on the ground. However, he’ll have to get Gustafsson there first. And since Gustafsson sports an 84% takedown defense, that’s easier said than done. Smith lands more with a 47% striking accuracy compared to Gustafsson’s 39%. Nevertheless, Gustafsson has better striking defense at 51% compared to Smith’s 43%. Legal betting fans might have a hard time predicting this one given both sides’ recent woes.

Prelims & UFC on ESPN+ 11 Betting Odds

Fighter Odds Fighter Odds
Lina Lansberg +240 Tonya Evinger -280
Stevie Ray +175 Leonardo Santos -210
Frank Camacho -110 Nick Hein -110
Bea Malecki -120 Eduarda Santana EV
Devin Clark -125 Darko Stosic +105
Joel Alvarez -115 Danilo Belluardo -105
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