For three years straight, attendance for UFC events has continued to grow, and the lightweight division drives most of this growth. On January 24, 2026, UFC 324 will feature Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett fighting for the interim lightweight title. With early betting action on this fight, interest in the best UFC online betting sites is already climbing, and this is sure to be one of the most heavily bet lightweight matchups in a while.
With the division in need of progress, Gaethje and Pimblett will take the promotional spotlight while Ilia Topuria is absent. Gaethje is a seasoned veteran with a history of competing in elite-weight battles, while Pimblett is an unarguably hyped rookie star.
Primarily, the focus of this piece is to show the significance of the interim belt, the betting angles to focus on, and what this matchup means for the lightweight division on the brink of 2026. Also, a breakdown of their numbers and an analysis of their techniques and fighting styles.
Division Reset: Why UFC Went With an Interim Belt
The UFC does not make interim lightweight titles for fun. Due to the division’s need for clarity, the promotional company does not allow a belt to be irrelevant for long periods of time. Topuria stepped away for personal reasons, but the UFC’s rankings supported the move. Gaethje at number four, and Pimblett at number five, had been holding their rankings down with active win streaks and even bounce-back performances, keeping the title contentious. They were both winning.
Topuria’s absence gave the UFC the same problems that all other promotions face. Track title fights, which drive revenue. Watching other promotions have title fights leads to a pull for high viewership. UFC 324 will be the first major event on Paramount+, which leads to the need for a high-revenue title fight.
The interim belt gives the division a clear path. The winner is the next unquestioned challenger for the undisputed title. Momentum is kept alive. Fan frustration is avoided, sportsbooks’ need for clarity leads to stronger early lines, heavier pre-fight betting, and more confident projections for prop markets.
While the UFC has offered interim titles before in the event of prolonged delays in a champion title reign, they have rarely done so with as high stakes as this. Lightweight is, without a doubt, the highest action division, so with both high-pressure fighters, they ensured the fight would be both competitive and marketable.
Two Directions, One Destination: Gaethje vs. Pimblett Breakdown
Experience vs. Momentum: The Central Dynamic
Justin Gaethje has one of the deepest and most varied resumes in MMA history. His range of fights against top competition is the most of any current lightweight. Although he lost the BMF title at UFC 300, he actually stiffened the momentum of the division with his win over Rafael Fiziev in early 2025. Gaethje performs well in fights that are particularly pressuring. His fighting style of constant forward, heavy leg kicks, and top-notch boxing has gotten him through one of the most difficult schedules in the division.
Also, the opposite of Gaethje is competing with him, Paddy Pimblett. Younger, stronger, and still unpinned in the UFC, he is also riding momentum, going off the most dominant win of his career over Michael Chandler, which surprised a lot of analysts. His style is also very aggressive, but a bit reckless, relying on a lot of speed and unpredictable fighting, which has gotten him this far on the path to unpinned champion.
The core tension is that Gaethje has experience in high-level matchups while Pimblett does not. However, Pimblett has some advantages, such as momentum, youth, stamina, and a desire to go for broke to win rounds. Gaethje has experience, raw power, and is calm even in the wildest of brawls.
The stakes are higher for both, considering that a title is on the line for the first time in their careers, and this is the first time their career paths are crossing. Every exchange will be highly valued as the winner will be highly favored to win the title again in the future.
Comparative Metrics and Division Context
Gaethje has better striking metrics than Pimblett in the majority of cases. With the ability to land high volumes of significant strikes and absorb damage, Gaethje has proved to have devastating finishing power. His ability to shut down elite fighters with leg strikes demonstrates his proven striking ability. Defensively, he has good wrestling, so he is likely to keep the fight standing.
On the other hand, Pimblett wins in the category of quicker scrambles, quicker hand speed, and higher volume. His grappling is superior because he is a threat in the transitions and is a high-level grappler. Pimblett has proven cardio and, unlike Gaethje, he has lower mileage, so he will go the distance in fights that have a lot of action.
The lightweight division has been in limbo since the champion vacated. The other fighters in the division are Mateusz Gamrot, Beneil Dariush, and Arman Tsarukyan; however, they are all much less popular than Gaethje or Pimblett. This fight is a perfect combination of star power and competitiveness.
Due to public appeal, sportsbooks are starting to see public sentiment. Because of the experience, early action is likely to be on Gaethje. Public betting volume and Pimblett’s massive fanbase will likely shift the odds before fight week.
This fight also determines the roadmap for lightweight title matchups through late 2026. The division’s identity could shift toward youth and speed — or back toward veteran stability. For anyone learning how to bet on UFC, the key is grasping how styles clash, how fighters manage pressure, and which prop markets match the flow of the matchup.
What Bettors Can Apply Right Now
- Pace and durability are key factors. Gaethje tends to be explosive right out of the gate and is calculated in his movements. Pimblett tends to feel out the first minute of the fight before marching forward and pushing the pace rapidly. Both fighters are prone to early confidence. If either fighter is able to feel early confidence, the fight can heavily swing in their favor.
- Pimblett and Gaethje tend to fight with early aggression, so props involving early round attacks may hold value. Both fighters can capitalize on opponents’ mistakes, and they don’t like to sit back and wait for the fight to continue. Gaetjhe has heavy leg kicks that can chop Pimblett’s movement and create KO opportunities, while Pimblett’s scrambles can create opportunities for submissions or position control.
- Gaethje’s fights can almost always call for live betting, as he is strong out of the gate and can shift odds. If he is rocked early, the odds may shift in favor of his opponents, creating value for an understanding of momentum shift. Pimblett is also an explosive fighter, so if he is hit hard early, the odds may shift as well, and line movement can be quick.
- Another valuable angle to consider is cardio. Pimblett is the younger fighter and has the better cardio, while Gaethje has more experience and has better fight management. Props may be more situational for the over or under, especially if the public is heavily betting on it, creating more value in that prop.
- Both fighters have even taken the late role of movement in their fights, especially if the fighter showed depleting energy over the fight. Bettors may consider the fighter’s shape in the freezing line.
Understanding these types of situation-related clues is much more important than simply having a decision to make based on power versus speed.
Where the Division Goes After UFC 324
- Assuming the current champion doesn’t retire first, the winner is expected to face the champion upon Topuria’s return. However, these expectations will shift if Topuria extends his hiatus or if the current winner starts garnering attention.
- If Gaethje wins, he is expected to receive the opportunity to fight for the undisputed championship, a fight that he will probably get very soon if the promotion wants to capitalize on his remaining star power.
- If Pimblett wins, the UFC will most likely look to promote him as a global star in the lightweight division. The lightweight division has been historically dominated by older, experienced fighters. A youthful, new champion in the division starts the division from a marketing perspective. Pimblett’s potential is high, and the UFC is aware.
- There is a lot of potential fight matchups, such as Gamrot, Tsarukyan, or a returning Charles Oliveira, depending on how the division develops in 2026.
- All of this will depend on the results of UFC 324. The lightweight is shaped for a big change, and the results of the match will shape the betting odds and the entire division. A Pimblett win, and the division will likely be a lot faster and more scrambly than it has been. If Gaethje wins, the division will likely maintain its power and pressure for a while.
Every possible outcome produces a new cascade of possibilities. This is why this interim title is as important as it is.
Expert Insights: Six Betting Tips That Actually Matter
1. Watch the Lines Early Public Overreaction is Possible
Bettors of the broader market may inflate the odds. Gaethje attracts the name. Sharp bettors may tip the line the other way if they back Pimblett.
2. The Method of Victory Prop is Worth Considering
Finishing the fight is a live possibility on both ends. Gaethje’s got it. Pimblett seems to have a submission upside. Picking a prop on submission or KO/TKO tends to have better implied odds than the moneyline.
3. Conditioning During Fight Week is Important to Study
People will have concerns over the weight cuts Pimblett has to do. If Gaethje is the standard fighter, he’s consistent; however, we still have signs of fatigue.
4. Track the Press Conference Dynamics
They both have a lot to say, and confidence does sway a line. If confidence leads to him [Pimblett] speaking a lot, it may cost him chances.
5. If You’re Experienced, Prioritize Live Betting
The odds will be negative from the perspective of the bettor if a fighter lands a clean shot. Gaethje’s fights are known for momentum. Live betting will offer a better angle than pre-fight lines.
6. Keep Long-Term Futures in Mind
Bettors will probably expect a fight with Topuria from the winner. Underdog wins. Futures bets may have better value with the line open than with the line closing post UFC 324.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: How do fighter styles influence UFC betting at sportsbooks?
A: Styles influence pace, finishing odds, and prop value. Strikers boost KO potential, while grapplers raise submission chances. These matchups guide whether bettors target moneylines, round totals, or method-of-victory props — a key part of UFC sportsbook betting.
Q: What does the term UFC title mean, and why was it created?
A: An interim title takes the place of the title when the reigning champion cannot defend their title. It keeps the division active and allows contenders to gain significant wins while the champion is out.
Q: Why didn’t the UFC wait for Ilia Topuria to return?
A: Topuria has given no timeline other than it could potentially be 2026. Instead of allowing the division to freeze, the UFC scheduled a title fight to keep the division active and to pull the division out of a stalemate for the fans and the fighters.
Q: Is Justin Gaethje the favorite to win?
A: Early opinions out of the match indicate Gaethje may be a slight favorite given his experience and knockout power. Pimblett has a large fanbase and could pull the odds closer to even in the week of the fight.
Q: What’s the best time to place a bet on a UFC fight?
A: Early in the week is best for those who want to “lock in a value” before public money is added, which causes lines to shift. Late in the week is best for those who want to wait for weigh-in cues and other final information. It often comes down to a confidence level in the outcome.
Q: Should I place a live bet with this matchup?
A: Yes, especially because of a fighter like Gaethje that can shift momentum instantaneously. Bettors who can recognize momentum shifts will be able to capture value, especially because live odds can swing drastically after the initial exchanges of a fight.
Q: Should I place a bet on an underdog?
A: If lines open heavily in favor of Gaethje, Pimblett’s youth and momentum will provide real underdog value. However, underdog betting does require an awareness of risk and discipline with one’s bankroll.
Q: If a fighter wins this match, will it be for the undisputed title directly?
A: Most likely. The UFC’s plans for the interim champion are to match him with Topuria, unless, for some reason, the champion in the top position is delayed in returning.
What Smart Bettors Should Do Next
UFC 324 resets the lightweight division and gives bettors a rare opportunity to capitalize on a matchup with real stakes. Three takeaways stand out. First, the interim title isn’t symbolic — it shapes 2026’s title picture. Second, Pimblett’s underdog upside and Gaethje’s veteran presence make this a genuinely competitive fight with multiple betting angles. Third, prop bets and live betting may offer the highest value once odds start moving.
Fans and bettors using the best UFC online betting sites should watch weigh-ins, monitor early line movement, and take advantage of any overreactions in public sentiment. Lightweight fights move fast, both inside the Octagon and on the betting boards.
If you’re looking for a place to act on your analysis, explore the available lines and get your wagers set — and when you’re ready, head over to BetNow and make your play.
Hilbert Mayer
Sports Writer
Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.
Published on: November 28, 2025
Last updated: November 30, 2025