The upcoming UFC 322 at Madison Square Garden on November 15, 2025, is a fully loaded card. 2 title fights, undefeated prospects, and genuine shifts within several divisions. From a betting perspective, this card is a goldmine as there are very clear plus-money opportunities on both sides of the matchups for the value bettors of the best UFC betting websites.
On this card, we will break down fighter stats, matchup analytics, divisional title implications, and predictions for fight night. Then provide actionable steps for value out of this card and point out the larger patterns of history. There is a lot at stake as UFC 322 changes the landscape of New York.
Where the Momentum Is Heading in the Main Event
Jack Della Maddalena is the reigning champion among the welterweights, entering the match with a record of 18-2, a striking pace of almost 6.8 significant strikes a minute, and a propensity for finishing fights. Islam Makhachev, with a record of 27-1, is moving up from Lightweight and brings with him superior grappling, along with a fighting style characterized by pressuring control. Betting markets are leaning towards Makhachev.
This particular fight is about more than the belts — it’s about proving a concept. Can JDM avoid the takedown for long enough to throw clean combinations? Can Makhachev transfer his dominance in the Lightweight division to 170 without losing efficiency? Della Maddalena has the advantage in output; Makhachev has the advantage in position. The strike differential definitely favors JDM; however, takedown control and fight IQ are more in Makhachev’s wheelhouse.
JDM wins by maintaining the range and throwing a higher volume of strikes; Makhachev wins by maintaining the pressure and positional suffocation. Betting decisions made for the card mainly stem from this understanding.
How UFC 322 Fits Into the Broader Season Picture
The co-main event featuring Valentina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili completes the title fights and showcases the storylines of the card. Moving up from strawweight, Zhang is known for her speed and countering explosively. Shevchenko is known for her precision, experience, and defensive prowess — one of the best in the game.
Also helping anchor the card, Sean Brady vs Michael Morales. Morales is 18-0 and very active with finishes, whereas Brady is 18-1 and a grappler who excels in top control. These fights span the entire card and are made from stylistic contrasts, most notably, striker vs grappler; volume vs efficiency; pressure vs countering. It is in these moments where UFC fight metrics and analytics show their value most in comparing trajectories and determining if it’ll be momentum or the matchup that’ll be the deciding variable.
This is similar to past PPVs, but is unique in that the undercard is headlined by multiple athletes who could easily be featured in their own main events. Depth like that is often a tell for bettors of closely matched fights on the card, resulting in underdogs obtaining value. It also contains contenders with betting value that isn’t just focused on the immediate fights, but long-term trends.
How Bettors Can Apply the Data Right Now
Here’s the straight, practical approach:
Analyze Style Wins Versus Status
- Ignoring name value. JDM wins if distance is maintained, Makhachev wins if distance is closed. Your bets should match those routes — Makhachev, submission/control props; JDM, KO props.
Target Undercard Mismatches.
- That’s the sort of fight, Morales’ striking vs Brady’s grappling, where the lines might lag behind real-world momentum. That’s where the value hides.
Instead of Just Picking Winners, Use Their Metrics To Prop Bet.
- Less accessible metrics, such as strikes landed, takedown accuracy, and time spent controlling the fight for round wins, enable methods of victory bets with higher value.
Late Week Movement Is Critical.
- Outside of multi-title events, heavy shifts in odds are common after weigh-ins. Missed weight, slow rehydration protocols can swing props.
Diversifying Is Key.
- Boiling down to the main events, betting becomes predictable. A balanced spread across title fights and up-and-coming contenders is usually safer.
Track Record of Consistent Performances
- Multiple camp fighters are usually undervalued until they improve with better accuracy and better defense through the camp, until they hit a detriment. UFC 322 is a great example.
Projected Impact on Future Divisions
- Makhachev will become a two-division champion if he wins the welterweight title. This means he will join the ranks of becoming one of the most dominant lightweights. However, there are ripple effects of impact.
- The top welterweights will have to deal with a new stylistic matchup, lower-ranked fighters may try to chase him on the ladder, and there will be a significant change in matchmaking for welterweights for the following year.
- He will be the main draw for the division and the A-side, while new contenders with strong wrestling will emerge, increasing the likelihood of fights in the division.
- MMA also includes Shevchenko vs Zhang, and it creates the potential for two-division champions. Zhang’s win in the Flyweight division may lead to a new trend of cross-division bouts.
- The betting landscape is also impacted. Books will change and adjust betting lines if a champion in one division also wins a title in another. This card is all about the
- Makhachev will be no undersized for his matchup, but he will be in a larger weight class, and how he handles himself will redefine how books price fighters moving up weight classes.
This means the direction of 2026 will be set in place, and it also includes which divisions will tighten/which will have the opposite outcome.
Expert Insights: Tips for Smart Betting
Trends over single data points.
- If an athlete boosts activity or ramps up defense during a stretch of bouts synced together, that isn’t isolated data. JDM is a good example.
Match up adversity, not strength vs strength.
- A striker with high takedown defense is a live dog versus a wrestler. Style matchups should be simple.
Moneylines should be avoided.
- Favs with heavy odds will not be worth value, but props to the outcome of the fight, specific round, total rounds, or based on control time tend to be worth it.
Adjustments are multifaceted.
- Weight changes, status of division, or cuts, full or partial, should be flagged. Look for changes in interviews, weigh-ins, or fight to fights that are visible.
Event-wide diversification.
- Good betters spread their action across the card. Stacked fights tend to be sharper, so look for lower-profile ones.
Weigh in on process disruptions.
- Quick reaction time is required. Drawing a big shift in the bet market is not a reaction a good bet should be waiting for.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: How Expert Picks Improve Success Rates on UFC Betting Sites?
A: Expert picks utilise advanced analytics (takedowns, striking accuracy, opponent quality) and contextual intelligence (camp changes, injury updates). UFC expert picks help bettors see beyond market odds and identify mis-priced opportunities, improving success rates.
Q: How do I determine which fight will provide the best value to bet on?
A: Look for fights where one fighter’s strengths and the other’s weaknesses match (ex, striker vs grappler). Look for metrics such as strike differential, takedown accuracy, control time, etc. Underdogs tend to have value in predictions because of these factors.
Q: What does moving up a weight class mean in the UFC?
A: An athlete moving up (like Makhachev moving up from 155lbs to 170lbs) means they are getting bigger in terms of the size of the fighter, but they are going against people that are naturally bigger and of a much faster pace. It makes adapting to the new environment much harder.
Q: When is the best time to place a bet?
A: When the odds are stable but before major changes (like weigh-in), bet as you’ll be able to place your wager before other people and have an advantage. For the UFC 322 main card, in my opinion, it was best to place your bet after the fight line-ups were confirmed, but before the weigh-ins to secure where the odds are stable.
Q: What are the main risks associated with betting on events within the UFC?
A: Risks associated with betting in the UFC include last-minute changes to the opponent, underestimating an opponent, gym/camp issues, an underdog that has shown to have momentum, and an over-reliance on the line of a favorite, which may be of low value. Also, watch for an injury or stoppage.
Q: What guidance can I establish value on undercard bouts?
A: Look at the fighter’s recent metrics on style, performance, and betting lines. Tickets often have rising prospect fold. Look for those on a winning streak, have a high finishing rate, or have a stylistic edge.
Q: What specific lines should I focus on?
A: Strikes, significant strikes, and takedowns attempted or landed per 15min. Submission attempts, early finish rate,
Final Takeaways & Next Step
In this update on UFC 322 you’ve got three major takeaways:
- The headliner (JDM vs Makhachev) is more than just a belt fight, it’s a directional shift in welterweight.
- The supporting fights (Shevchenko vs Zhang, Brady vs Morales, etc.) feed into future divisions and betting value.
- Using data, style matchups and timing will super-charge your approach when you bet on UFC online.
As you prepare for fight night at Madison Square Garden, keep your focus on value, not simply favourites. Check the latest odds, study prop lines, and position yourself ahead of the rush. For those ready to act, make your move now — BetNow awaits your play.
Hilbert Mayer
Sports Writer
Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.
Published on: November 14, 2025
Last updated: November 16, 2025