Dustin Poirier is walking into the Octagon for the last time. UFC 318 is set for July 19 in New Orleans, and this card revolves around one man’s final chapter. Max Holloway stands across from him in a trilogy fight with real stakes, a BMF belt on the line, and a roaring crowd ready to see if Poirier can finish his career with a bang. For fans and bettors checking out UFC betting sites, this fight carries all the weight and potential of a classic.
Poirier vs. Holloway III: The Setup
Poirier won both of their fights, the most recent one earning him the interim lightweight belt. Since then, Holloway has transformed into a new version of himself, securing the BMF belt in a walk-off knockout style before settling in to defend the title against his nemesis. While Poirier seeks to maintain his reputation, one thing is clear for him: a finish will seal his legacy.
This is not just the deciding chapter of a trilogy. This is simply further shaping their legacy.
Regardless of age, Holloway is favored here. Still, it is hard to ignore how dangerous Poirier can be. And if this is his swan song? Then he’s making good on proclamations made since UFC 290: a New Orleans show swan song far from the rest of the organization. Everything on this card could forever alter both fighters’ careers in the best (or worst) way.
The Retirement Factor
Retirement fights are challenging. most people do not believe they’ve actually retired but rather are taking appellate to make a return. that mindset seems all in towards Poirnew however. He has been hinting at this ever since the second McGregor battle. Unlike before, itBill Pricing now has the control he desires.
This changes how prospective bets are made. Retirement can incur added motivation or even presure. This does also apply for poirier as it is a hometown fight. That emotional charge can be a fuel or a desprite form of motivation with betting in mind. Those who use betting sites for UFC games should be prepared as this may be their greatest factor to focus on.
Holloway’s Stakes Are High Too
For Max Holloway, this fight is not motivated by emotion- it’s about positioning. Holloway wishes to secure another title shot. At 33, he is in a peculiar spot where he is too good to fade, but is in a congested mix of contenders. An added win over a name like Poirier puts him in the thick of things, further getting him a title shot. That’s where he becomes a threat.
He has a point to prove and winning this will show the world he’s still part of the elite fighters in the arena. After that walk-off KO of Justin Gaethje, Mustang seems to be more confident than ever. He possesses the cardio and aggression to outwork anyone. But can he answer the question on whether he has enough to overcome Poirier? Perhaps not in a single shot, but Ποσότητα is where he excels.
Smart bettors out there are probably looking for beneficial predictions. Depending on Poirier’s showing, the results predict Holloway by decision or late stoppage. However, Poirier’s pace management decides everything.
Where the Action Is: Betting Angles
Moneyline bets will be split. Some will follow Poirier for the win, while others favor Holloway’s cardio and pressure. Neither side is wrong; it’s just a matter of what you choose to believe in. UFC expert betting picks are split as well. Some are banking on Holloway drowning Poirier with output, while others believe that Poirier’s boxing and timing still make him a knockout threat does pose a threat.
Prop bets might offer the best value. Poirier by KO in rounds 2 or 3 might be a smart choice. That’s the window where he’s most dangerous. If Holloway gets past the first three rounds, his chances increase substantially. This is where live betting may help—monitor the early minutes. If Dustin Poirier doesn’t land big early, things might turn against him.
The most active markets will be for total rounds. Most think it will finish inside the distance. But if you take the stance that Poirier gets emotional and cannot execute a game plan, or Holloway is too durable and wears him down, then you can make a case for the over.
Rest of the Card: Background Noise or Surprise Value?
Let’s not mince words—UFC 318 lacks depth. The co-main Ige versus Pitbull is fine, but it wouldn’t sell pay-per-views. Some fans branded it as a glorified Fight Night. But for bettors, low-hype cards are often profitable. Lines remain soft longer. There’s less attention on props. Mid-card matchups are worth considering for sneaky decision grinders or KO potential.
Valor can come from names like Neil Magny or Kevin Holland if you know where to look. Parlays on underdogs, decision props, and method plays could amplify returns if the main event doesn’t go as planned. But again, don’t go all in. The real money is Poirier vs Holloway.
The Real Prediction: One More Knockout?
This is what it all comes down to. To end things quickly, Poirier desires a knockout (KO), and he does indeed have the skill to achieve one. He still possesses the strength and eye to time powerful punches. If he catches Holloway early, especially with a clean shot, it could happen.
However, finishing fights is notoriously difficult for Holloway. No one has ever finished him with strikes. Not even Dustin in two attempts. He possesses incredible durability, is smart, and has great ring IQ. Poirier running out of gas could be very dangerous. Holloway will pour it on late. Volume wins rounds. Accumulation wins fights. That’s his game plan.
Poiry could have the edge in a short burst, particularly during the first 7-10 minutes. That’s his window of opportunity, so expect him to capitalize. If he can’t, the remaining time is in Holloway’s favor. For those betting, hedge bets are the way to go; Poirier for an early KO and Holloway for a late decision.
Odds Watch: Key Numbers to Track
- Poirier KO odds: If they sit around +400 to +500, they’re playable.
- Holloway decision odds: Around +300? Sharp.
- Fight ends inside distance: Close to pick’em? Take the shot.
- Round betting: Round 2 and 3 for Poirier, round 4 and 5 for Holloway.
These are the kinds of numbers that swing weekends. Check your book for boosts, especially for high-traffic fights like this. UFC betting sites often run promos for farewell fights.
What Happens Next?
If Poirier wins, he walks. Period. He’ll leave the gloves in the Octagon and go home. Expect a Hall of Fame nod within the year. Maybe a desk job with the UFC or ESPN. He’s earned it. No need to fight again.
If Holloway wins? The BMF belt gets elevated. He might angle for a shot at the lightweight title. Topuria could be next. Or maybe he calls out Gaethje again. Either way, a win puts him right back in the main event circuit.
For the division, this fight won’t affect rankings much, but it changes narratives. A big finish could shape how fans and bettors see future matchups. Especially for Holloway.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Where Can I Place UFC Bets Online?
A: Where to bet on UFC? Use trusted sportsbooks like Betnow.eu. Make sure they’re legal in your state or region.
Q: What Are the Best Bets for UFC 318?
A: Look at Poirier KO rounds 2-3, Holloway decision, or over 2.5 rounds. Props hold better value than moneylines.
Q: Is the BMF Title a Real Belt?
A: It’s symbolic. It doesn’t affect rankings, but it can influence fighter stock and betting perception.
Q: Should I Bet Live During the Fight?
A: Yes, if your sportsbook allows. You can read momentum shifts better after round 1.
Q: Is This Poirier’s Last Fight for Real?
A: All signs say yes. He pushed for this sendoff in New Orleans and sounds done.
Last Ride or Last War?
Call it whatever you want—Poirier’s final fight is a moment. It’s rare the UFC gives someone a home-sendoff with full attention. He earned that. Whether he wins by KO or loses in a war, it’ll be remembered.
For bettors, the opportunities are clear. Prop value, emotional intangibles, and legacy pressure all create sharp angles. Know where the value lies and don’t get swept up by sentiment.
Dustin Poirier could end his career with one last perfect punch. Or Max Holloway might steal the spotlight again. Either way, there’s money to be made and history to be witnessed. Game on.
Hilbert Mayer
Sports Writer
Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.
Published on: July 11, 2025
Last updated: July 11, 2025