Odds Reflect a Shift Ahead of UFC 324
Paddy Pimblett started fight week as a frontrunner in the main event for UFC 324, and the odds have shifted in his favor even more. Current sportsbook odds have Pimblett between -230 and -240, and Justin Gaethje as an underdog at approximately +190. The odds pair tells you who’s favored and who’s expected to win, and how confident the sportsbooks are in this matchup.
The odds are in favor of Pimblett for a reason. The combination of his recent results, his winning consistency as an octagon fighter, and how he may fight Gaethje, all together, has resulted in a betting market that has positively rewarded anyone who took the winning bets for him as the fight approaches. With one of the major UFC sportsbooks online being used heavily in the days before the fight, this, in and of itself, shows there is money and interest to support.
Last week’s betting patterns, other UFC 324 betting lines, and this betting line theory summarize what will eventually come to pass: sportsbooks bet limited exposure, and bettors seek the opposite. Foresight is the main aim as time runs out before the fight.
Why Pimblett’s Odds Are So Strong Right Now
Pimblett’s moneyline did not tighten for no reason. He arrives at UFC 324 highly driven and adaptable, with recent wins showcasing his durability. He has proven the ability to adjust to fight outcomes with experienced opponents mid-fight, and control the fight’s tempo and win rounds, even when he loses different parts of the bouts.
In betting, consistency is all that matters. Pimblett wins in different scripted fights, and that is how the sellers of the betting fights created the prices. Gaethje remains lethal, with his powerful and pressurized fighting style. He offers explosive offers, and with that comes the added risk of losing longer fights.
Mileage also comes into play, and Gaethje has seen some. Pimblett is at a younger and fresher state and has not received the same level of cumulative fight damage. That does not guarantee a win, though; it is just how the betting market would see it. A betting line that implies a 70-75% chance of a Pimblett victory shows how the market expects him to manage the chaos as opposed to seeking out chaos.
Finally, a slightly more nuanced point is trust in the public market. Pimblett is seen as a novice fighter that the seasoned bettors enjoy backing. That trust offers volume, and volumes push lines.
How UFC 324 Odds Compare Across the Card
There is a noticeable discrepancy with pricing for Pimblett vs Gaethje compared to the rest of the UFC 324 matchups. Pricing for the rest of the featured and co-main bouts is far tighter, with some closed line pick ’em and some narrow line favorites. By contrast, Pimblett’s line, while not crossing the extreme favorite line, does show a fair amount of confidence in him.
That is the clear middle ground. On the one hand, it is a good line for sportsbooks, as Pimblett is a safe favorite yet does not put the sportsbook in a position where they shoulder too much liability. On the other hand, it is a bad line for bettors, as it takes away some of the alternative plays offered in other line scenarios.
Pimblett is also more well-rounded than Gaethje, and this pricing gap is reflective of UFC fighter styles as they pertain to betting. More often than not, markets favor those that can win via more methods of victory, especially in 5 round title fights, as is the match for Pimblett and Gaethje.
As far as casual bettors are concerned, they tend to go for momentum fighters, and Pimbblett is certainly the momentum fighter for UFC 324. This influence is especially pronounced for Gaethje, as his fight style often dictates more decisive endings than that which is at play for Pimblett.
Applying the Odds — Smart Betting Angles
Betting on strong favorites doesn’t always mean betting on the moneyline. Pimblett’s moneyline suggests that there is a high probability he will win the fight, but smart bettors look for better options to bet.
One possibility is looking at the method of victory markets. In most cases, winning by decision or submission will yield better returns than betting on him to win outright. If you expect him to control the fight and not go for a knockout, then those markets fit the fight dynamics.
Another option is betting on specific rounds. Pimblett’s pressure tends to get worse as the fight goes on. Looking for outcomes in later rounds would be a smart bet and would create better returns without betting the fight would lose.
Betting on parlays would be a smart option as well. There is a low risk of betting on Pimblett and then picking another solid favorite that gives a good return, but that second fighter must be well analyzed.
Betting on live betting options makes a lot of sense, too. If Pimblett is winning the fight and he is betting on him to win, then the odds will shorten, and he will get a good amount of options to cash out.
For the people betting on underdogs, betting on Gaethje’s value is primarily just betting on him winning by knockout. He’s an underdog for a reason, and that’s why it makes sense to hedge by betting on him as well.
What to Expect as Fight Night Approaches
With UFC 324 just around the corner, we can expect to see more movement on the betting line. We can expect slight line movement on the heavy favorites as sportsbooks try to mitigate risk. Then, as more last-minute bets come in, line movement will continue to churn.
Line movement will continue until weigh-ins, final interviews, and fight week reports. If Paddy Pimblett is confident and composed at weigh-ins, he will be a heavy favorite, but if there are any issues or concerns, the betting line will not be as high.
We can also expect a high volume of in-play bets as people will be wagering live. The first UFC events to offer live betting had a rapid pace, and with people wagering in the first rounds, sportsbooks will continue to offer more options.
Something we can be sure of is that Pimblett will remain a favorite until the fight goes live. The most important question remains: will Pimblett be a favorite, and how will the people wager on him?
Expert Betting Insights for UFC 324
Pay attention to Line movement, not Hype
Sharp money often moves early. You can track where the confidence really is by analyzing the differences between opening lines and current prices.
Adjust Style to Market
Fighters with multiple paths to victory justify their favorite status. In this case, we would argue, Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett is more than Justin Gaethje.
Props to Risk Control
When betting on a heavily priced favorite, instead of betting on the money line, the props for winning method and winning round have better risk-reward scenarios.
The First Round is Everything
Pre-fight predictions can be confirmed or completely nullified with early betting.
Know your Books
It’s vital to know that your sportsbooks are not trying to predict an outcome. They’re managing their liabilities and protecting their dollar. So, line movements reflect money, not confidence.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What do Pimblett’s odds really mean?
A: They reflect market belief that Pimblett wins this matchup more often than not. Short odds indicate confidence, not guarantees.
Q: Is betting favorites still profitable?
A: Yes, if value exists. The key is identifying when probability outweighs price.
Q: Should bettors wait or bet early?
A: Early bets can capture better numbers. Late bets offer more information but often worse prices.
Q: Are props safer than moneylines?
A: They can be. Props allow more specific predictions and often deliver better payouts.
Q: How Do Sportsbooks Manage Risk for Popular Events?
A: Reliable sportsbook online, adjusts odds based on betting volume, limit exposure, and encourages balanced action across outcomes.
Q: Is live betting worth it?
A: Yes, especially if you understand fighter tendencies and momentum shifts.
Q: Do public bets matter?
A: They influence lines, but sharp money matters more.
The Final Angle on UFC 324 Betting
Paddy Pimblett’s strong betting line at UFC 324 reflects more than hype. It reflects consistency, matchup advantages, and market confidence. While no fight is a lock, the odds tell a clear story: sportsbooks and bettors expect Pimblett to control this fight more often than not.
The smartest plays aren’t about chasing big payouts. They’re about aligning probability, price, and strategy. Whether that’s through props, live bets, or disciplined parlays, the edge comes from preparation.
If you’re ready to take advantage of the UFC 324 betting landscape, BetNow offers competitive lines, flexible markets, and fast action so you can bet your way — before the cage door shuts.
Hilbert Mayer
Sports Writer
Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.
Published on: January 24, 2026
Last updated: January 25, 2026