Already, the 2025-26 Europa League is showing early fireworks: 40 goals across the opening fixtures, an average of 2.23 per match. That scoring rate is modest but suggests tight contests, especially with knockout implications looming early. For anyone looking to bet on soccer online, these early numbers hint at underdog potential, low-scoring upsets, and value in match-by-match markets.
New formats are trending, and that means clubs need to change. Bettors also need to change. You will learn how to track different clubs to see which are in form, which will give you the best value, and let you determine where trends are going to change. It will break it down into tactical and statistical insight, practical betting applications, and forecasts. It will give you pro picks and answer the most common questions. By the end, you will know some clear betting strategies to use on BetNow. This piece will explain ways you will be able to use it on BetNow.
Structural & Competitive Shifts Shaping 2025–26
New Format, New Pressure
This is the second season of the new 36-team “league phase” model. Each club no longer has fixed groups; now each club plays eight different opponents: two from each assigned pot, one home and one away. The top 8 teams get byes into the round of 16; the 9th-24th ranked teams will participate in knockout rounds for the last 16 spots. This makes it more valuable to finish in the top eight as it avoids an extra tie and reduces variance.
Since clubs don’t face the same opponents, “strength of draw” plays a big role. Using data from Opta, fixture difficulty has been assessed. Aston Villa, for example, has one of the more lenient fixture lists—an opponent strength index of 83.3. Nottingham Forest is debuting at this level and has one of the toughest patches of opposition.
For competitive reasons, the current champion (Tottenham) does not get the option to defend their title here; they automatically qualify for the Champions League, and the final will be held at Beşiktaş Stadium in Istanbul, on the 20th of May 2026.
There will always be a trade-off, and the clubs will have to find the right balance. Less room this time for a shocking deep run to be considered a fluke, and a slip early on could eliminate all hope. There will be a definite focus on the balance of the schedule and the consistency of the teams.
Defensive Compactness Rules Early
With that average of 2.23 goals each match, a lot of games are going to be decided with small gaps. Teams that are good at keeping their defense organized will gain an advantage. Notice how home teams have about 52% of possession while away teams have 48%? The stats show that teams have a total of about 22.36 shots each match, meaning there will be chances, but goal scoring will be the deciding factor.
For the physicality of the game, the stats show that there are about 25.5 fouls and 3.4 offsides, which indicates a moderate level. There will be tightly contested midfield battles with very little space to work with. Since the winning margins will be small, there will be quite a lot of goals scored in the end.
This is where live soccer props betting might offer value—markets like “next goal,” “correct score,” or “goal in final 10 minutes” could often swing. In tight matches, those props let you leverage micro shifts in momentum.
For instance, a team that plays a deep defensive strategy but tries to counterattack may seem to concede early, but will close the defensive gaps in the last half. If you see a match about to be played that seems to have those characteristics, a “yes – late goal” bet will be more favorable than betting on the 1X2.
Favorites, Dark Horses & Draw Bias
Opta’s supercomputer says Aston Villa has the highest probability of winning the tournament this season at 23.3%. Roma is next at 13.0%, then Nottingham Forest at 10.2%. That’s interesting considering Forest is the newest addition. They probably have strong investments in their squad and good momentum.
Regarding value, Roma and Porto are top clubs that have European experience. Aston Villa’s head coach, Unai Emery, has several Europa League titles and knows how to handle this sort of knockout-heavy tournament.
In comparison, newcomers like Go Ahead Eagles and Nottingham Forest offer something new—but there is some risk involved. They don’t have much of a history in Europe, which means there are fewer known quantities for opponents to research. That unpredictability can work in their favor for a few games, but over a long season, it could backfire.
The difficulty of a set of games is not consistent. Villa’s set is more favorable compared to other clubs. Forest and other clubs have tougher sets. That difference in expected outcomes is due to the difference in the level of the clubs. Also, the difference in the group and league stages of a tournament increases the expected outcomes: every game counts.
During league and cup games, if clubs are overstretched, their depth is of no use. There will be rotation. In weaker leagues, squads may struggle with congested calendars. The strongest squads, balancing their domestic league with Europe, will dominate in their primary league.
Market Selection & Risk Management
Avoid jumping straight into “outright winner” markets too early. Because the structure puts more value on finishing top 8 (bye) vs falling into the knockout play-offs, there is value in “finish top 8” markets, “top in pot” or “to avoid playoff” as there is lower variance.
Match Handicap: Some fixtures may be lopsided because of drawer imbalance. For instance, check where stronger teams play much weaker opponents, like Villa vs Go Ahead. You can work on the Asian handicaps or the over/under (goals) markets.
Props: as discussed before, focus on late goals, goal timing, and correct scores. Tight matches sometimes make “under 2.5 goals” safer, unless both lineups lean toward offense. In this case, line metrics (last 10 mins possession, pressing intensity) can help you pay attention.
Live betting: If a favorite is pressing hard and trailing, implied odds shift fast. Pay attention to injuries, sending offs, and changes in game momentum.
Bankroll discipline: View this tournament as a long season. Spread your risk and avoid emotional favorites that could lead to overcommitment.
Data tools: Opta power ratings, fixture difficulty metrics, lineup changes, and team coefficients are useful. They provide an edge over conventional bookmaker lines.
Likely Paths & Upset Scenarios
Villa should be okay, as long as they keep their form, depth, and manage rotations. Their favorable draw gives them a smoother path early. But mid-stage ties (quarters, semis) likely pitch them against Roma, Porto, or Lyon.
Forest could be a surprise. They’re third in some simulations. If they build some consistency, they can be a surprise against a more established club, but their margin for error is slim.
Upset potential: Mid-tier clubs with good draws or unbeaten home records (Braga, Nice, for example) can take out top seeds. Because the draw is unbalanced, surprises will most definitely happen.
In the knockout rounds, the major concerns will be fatigue, rotation, injuries, and depth. Top performers will be able to use the “bye to round of 16” feature so they don’t have to play an extra match.
Final pick: Lean Villa vs Roma or Porto. We won’t rule out Forest either; if they get a favorable pairing and some momentum, they could make it to the semis.
Looking at the stats, we expect averages of around 2.1 to 2.4 goals for the knockout stage matches. Most draws are decided by away goals or settled by some marginal second-leg pressure, and defenses will dominate, so expect low-scoring matches.
By May 2026, the champion will most likely be a team that ticks off the boxes of European experience, good squad depth, a favorable draw, and consistency; therefore, we consider Villa to be front-runners, Roma a strong challenger, with Forest as a possible dark horse, and Porto, Braga, and Lyon as the outsiders.
Sharp Tips for 2025–26
Focus on the Top 8 Markets
If you finish top 8, you get a bye, which gives you more stability. Placing early odds takes less risk than the outright winner.
Check the Fixture Difficulty
Some clubs have it easier. You can average opponent strength and spot some value.
Home Underdogs are Overvalued
When looking at the home draws or combination bets, lower-ranked sides are a good option.
Keep an Eye on Rotations and Fatigue
Strong domestic schedules cause fatigue. Avoid teams with weak lineups.
Bet on Late Goals or Late Goals Props
In tight matches, the final 10 minutes can be highly profitable.
Spread Your Bankroll
Avoid betting all on one angle. This is a long tournament, so it makes sense to place different props and position bets so you are not all in.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What will the 2025–26 Europa League look like?
A: There will be a 36-team league phase. Each club will play eight matches. The top 8 teams will go directly to the round of 16. The teams ranked 9–24 will play in the knockout playoffs. The bottom 8 in the league phase will be out of the tournament entirely.
Q: How do teams qualify or transfer into this competition?
A: Some teams qualify through their domestic league or cup. Some clubs get dropped from the UEFA Champions League qualifying rounds. These clubs can then join the Europa League.
Q: If you finish first, do you get guaranteed advancement to the knockout stage?
A: Absolutely. The top 8 directly advance to the knockout stage and go to the round of 16. The lower-ranked teams will have to win an extra tie.
Q: What teams do you think are favorites in 2025-26 and why?
A: In the models, Aston Villa is the top favorite (~23.3%). Roma and Nottingham Forest are ranked high as well. Villa’s draw and Emery’s European record give credence, while Forest brings momentum and is a surprise player.
Q: How to Bet Wisely on Major Soccer Tournaments?
A: Focus on market diversity (outrights, props, finishing markets), avoid overexposure in any one match, use data (draw strength, form, injuries), manage bankroll conservatively, and adapt to in-game developments when betting on a major soccer tournament.
Q: When should bettors take action during the season?
A: For the first part of the season, it’s best to bet on finishing and draw strength markets while the volatility is lower. For the midseason bets, evaluate which teams are trending and use the knockout-stage prop markets. For the last part of the season, bets should focus on the knockout and final games, but should do so cautiously and in smaller amounts.
Q: What are the biggest risks?
A: Unpredictability due to rotation, injuries, weather, and variance. Draw imbalance is significant and should be factored in. Also, overconfidence in an underdog narrative can lead to losses if the underlying metrics do not support the bet.
Q: Which markets should we look at first: over, under, or match result markets?
A: In close matches, the under markets might be safer. In unequal matches, match result or handicap betting might be more valuable. Always verify the lineups and context first.
Final Angle: What to Watch & Do
Here are your four takeaways:
- This new 36-team league structure puts a greater emphasis on finishing in the top 8 more than ever.
- The imbalance of fixture draws is real; don’t treat all opponents the same.
- Expect tight matches. Rely on props and live betting as well as your low-scoring instincts.
- Winning Champions will need all four of: consistency, depth, and luck of the draw, with Villa in the lead, but surprises are lying in wait.
Staying disciplined and data-driven, with a focus on value markets, will give you the best advantage going into BetNow. Look for team rotation, modeled projections, and flow of the game in the mid-match. The fast-evolving nature of the tournament will require ready and quick adaptation.
Hilbert Mayer
Sports Writer
Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.
Published on: October 1, 2025
Last updated: October 3, 2025