In 2023, Patrick Mahomes was on the winning side of 5-1 against Lamar Jackson’s Ravens. Does that still carry any weight? Current betting lines seem to think so. A major NFL betting site had the Ravens as the lightest of favorites in Kansas City as well as the Packers as 7-point favorites over the Cowboys. These lines are a function of reputation, momentum, and players in the market.
These matchups are not just games but stories. Ravens at Chiefs (4:25 PM ET) is the MVP matchup of the day and a tense franchise duel, while Packers at Cowboys (8:20 PM ET on Sunday Night) is the longest rivalry in the NFL and is set to clash at the biggest stage.
You can expect a breakdown of the MVP matchup in Baltimore– KC, along with the rivalry context in Green Bay– Dallas, a strategic discussion, betting outlook, NFL betting odds (yes), and a forecast. Expert advice, answers to your queries, and the most asked questions will be provided. Let’s go straight to the main part.
Spotlight Breakdown: Lamar vs. Mahomes
There’s a lot more than just style when it comes to the match between Mahomes and Jackson. While Mahomes goes for another MVP season, Jackson is trying to get his high-level game back. Recently, Mahomes has had many seasons throwing more than 7,000 yards and performing well under pressure. On the other hand, Jackson has his best attributes in improvisation, being a dual threat, and extending plays.
In the 2025 season’s first three games, Kansas City’s offense has been lackluster. Mahomes has had pressured situations, problems with timing, and a lack of big plays. On the other hand, Jackson has more tools with Baltimore’s rushing game and their zone-read offense. Mahomes has been getting pressure, with his receivers being hurt, like Xavier Worthy, who just came back. Baltimore has their own issues with a Pro Bowl DT, Nnamdi Madubuike injured, making their interior pass rush weaker.
What this means is that for Mahomes to not get boxed in, he’ll need quick decisions, more midrange throws, and good protection. Jackson’s unpredictability could largely shift the outcome. This will be a win for Mahomes, and thus it’s a huge win for Jackson’s MVP narrative and will be good for betting lines.
In the betting market, the line has been set at the Ravens -2.5 and the over-under at 48.5. This line shows how one-sided the match will be compared to Baltimore’s balanced expectations. However, this could change at any moment.
Legacy Clash: Packers vs. Cowboys Storyline
This isn’t just a 2025 matchup: Dallas and Green Bay share decades of clutch games, postseason meetings, and narratives. The Packers lead the series 22–17 overall, and 5–4 in the postseason. Their last meeting: January 2024, wild card game in Dallas, a 48–32 Packers victory.
In 2025, the rivalry gets a twist: Micah Parsons, once a Cowboys icon, now wears green. That embeds a personal subplot. The Cowboys are also dealing with injury issues — CeeDee Lamb and Cooper Beebe are hurt. Meanwhile, Green Bay enters the game as a 7-point favorite, with total of 47.5.
Defensive liabilities for Dallas are glaring. Their pass defense rank is poor; they’ve allowed pressure rates to spike. Green Bay’s offense, led by Jordan Love and a strong run game, sees favorable matchups. In rivalry games, small edges matter—field position, emotion, turnovers. Expect Green Bay to lean into consistency and let Dallas make errors.
Angles That Shape the Betting Edge
Seeing it from a gambler’s perspective: look at match-ups, momentum, and situational context.
For the Ravens–Chiefs game, pay attention to how Baltimore’s offense is run. If Jackson successfully integrates some zone reads with the run options, then KC’s defense will have to watch for multiple possibilities. This will give offense to Baltimore’s intermediate throws.
The Chiefs will use Mahomes’ pocket passing mostly, and play-action will become key. If Baltimore’s linebackers cheat, then seam routes and Tight End seams will score easily.
For the Packers–Cowboys game, Green Bay should target the weakened secondary with Dallas for intermediate and crossing routes. This will depend on Jordan Love’s accuracy in that area.
Dallas will defend and try to force turnovers, as being behind in the score will mean they have to play against a disciplined offense to catch up.
On betting games: the phrase NFL betting odds enters via lines that shift with public sentiment. In both games, sharp money may push lines further. If Ravens gain early momentum, the line could glitch upward in their favor. In Packers–Cowboys, Dallas early deficit could lead to live betting swings.
Also monitor game-time injuries and weather. With these primetime games, half-point swings matter.
Fan-Focused Takeaways You Can Use
Always compare the different spreads, moneylines, and props across sportsbooks. Line shopping is important as value can differ.
Large moves early (especially overnight) usually mean pros are moving the market.
Players’ props are useful, like Mahomes over/unders, Jackson rushing yards, Love’s completion props, and Parsons’ sack props. Understanding game flow will help in determining the correlations between props.
To protect your bankroll, use live markets to lock in partial hedges and to pregame hedges to cover potential losses.
The hype surrounding these games can lead to bankroll discipline issues. Don’t overleverage.
If Madubuike is ruled out again, that weakens the Baltimore interior pressure. If Lamb is inactive, you can also say that Dallas’ passing game weakens.
Use these to guardrail your thinking: the matchups are volatile. Timing, injury news, and in-game shifts are most important, as they will change the outcomes.
Looking Ahead: What’s Next After Week 5
If the Ravens beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead, it really changes things for the AFC. Lamar’s MVP talks gain steam and the Chiefs lose some of their magic. On the other hand, if the Chiefs adjust their strategy, Mahomes could very well take over the game in the 4th quarter. I think it will be very close: I have Ravens 24, Chiefs 23.
Expect the Packers will be efficient in Dallas as they will be able to dictate the line of scrimmage and exploit the coverage. I favor the Packers 31 to 17 over the Cowboys. This can be viewed as a predictable outcome due to the injuries to the Cowboys and the inexperience in their secondary.
To think further down the line, if Jackson can get back to his elite self, the AFC will be a lot more competitive. Also, if Parsons has a strong game against his former team, that will help the Packers get some confidence as well as some positive narrative. These games can alter perception and line
Expert Insights
- Check for late-breaking injury updates – unexpected inactive players can cause line shifts.
- Exercise caution with contrarian bets – public money skews primetime games, but don’t take the other side mindlessly.
- Hedge across games – don’t stack the same outcome to spread risk; for example, both unders.
- Keep live bets small – waiting for a big scoring play is a bad strategy because it can quickly change the total.
- Consider late scoring, turf, weather, and other advanced conditions when determining scoring potential.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the importance of pregame injury reports?
A: They affect line movement and prop markets with respect to risk assessment. If you downgrade or rule out a starter for either an offense or defense, you’re exposing your bets to a risk. Check official reports on the game date to be certain.
Q: How do public betting percentages influence lines?
A: If a lot of money comes from casual bettors on one side of the bets, sportsbooks change the line to get equal action from both sides. When bets are highly popular, sportsbooks will get a lot of public bets, which will drift the line irrationally.
Q: How Injuries and Team News Influence Sports Betting Markets?
A: Injuries directly affect projections—if a pass rusher is out, the opposing QB has more time. News like trades or suspensions shifts betting sentiment. Sports betting markets often overreact early, and sharps are quick to exploit those shifts for value.
Q: Is it better to bet spreads, totals, or props in these matchups?
A: Spreads and totals tend to require a bit more assessment; however, props allow more exploitation through micro-matchups such as RB yards or sack lines. Make sure to diversify. For rivalry games, props are often mispriced early in the betting cycle.
Q: When is the best time to lock in a bet?
A: Ideally, you want to place the bet after lines have stabilized, which is typically in the late afternoon or early evening, right before the game. You want to stay away from betting when the lines are jumping all over the place, which tends to happen right after any news breaks or when injuries are announced. Late sharp shifts can also really hurt your betting outcome.
Q: Are rivalry games more predictable?
A: Nope. Rivalry games contain more emotion and therefore more randomness. Historical context may help frame the situation, but the results will likely be determined by turnover margins and the elasticity of the game’s coaching.
Q: How to manage risk if one bet goes bad early?
A: Live hedging or a come-from-behind strategy may work. If you have a spread that is likely to lose, shift some of your money to safe bets or props that are more highly correlated with the spread to neutralize risk.
Q: Should bettors lean under or over in primetime games?
A: It depends, but over the course of a season, sharp money likely will come in such that the under is more likely to succeed. In high-stakes games, however, the under is more likely to hit, assuming most high-stakes games will be low-scoring. Defensive teams or high-pressure situations will drive scoring down. Adjust expectations based on the teams involved.
Position, Adapt, Thrive
Takeaway one: The MVP duel in Baltimore–Kansas City is a tactical chess match. Jackson’s unpredictability vs. Mahomes’ experience could define the AFC narrative. Two: Packers–Cowboys is less about 2025 trends than historical weight, but injuries and roster shifts tilt the edge. Three: use injury updates, line movement, and prop leverage to inform your bets. Four: always protect your bankroll and hedge smart when momentum swings.
If you want to dig into live line chatter, betting lines in depth, or get real-time updates, check out BetNow for lines, markets, and in-game tools. Let’s see how these showdowns tell the story of 2025’s season.
Hilbert Mayer
Sports Writer
Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.
Published on: September 27, 2025
Last updated: September 28, 2025