As of Week 13, Detroit has scored 40 total touchdowns, leading the league in touchdowns scored. Thanksgiving football isn’t just tradition now — it’s high-stakes and ideal for anyone planning to bet on football online. Early Travel to Detroit by Green Bay is coupled with the other nationally televised clash of Kansas City vs. Dallas, creating a matchup with massive expected audiences.
Here’s what you’ll get:
- Where Each Team Stands Facing Week 13
- Important Statistics
- Betting-Influencing Factors
- Actionable Pre-Kickoff Insights
- Summary Projections from all the Above
Tradition, Tempo, and Tells: The Real Thanksgiving Edge
Rivalry Reality Check: Packers vs. Lions
The Packers-Lions rivalry always sells itself, but this season it actually matters at a granular level.
Detroit has a record of 7-4 going into week 13. Green Bay has a record of 7-3-1. Detroit is first in the league in offensive touchdowns and first in the league in yards gained after catch and YAC with over 1,600. This shows that their receivers are not just catching the ball, but actively going after and gaining yards after the catch.
The Green Bay Packers play on the opposite spectrum by having the NFL’s best goal-to-go catch percentage, and in the Green Bay Packers’ case, that is 100%. That is pure execution. These two offensive tendencies run head to head with Detroit’s offense thriving off volume and big plays, while Green Bay has the edge with their offensive execution in the red zone. It also has to be taken into consideration that the Packers had 11 players on their week 13 injury report, including their starting running back, Josh Jacobs. This has to be a positive edge for the Detroit Lions.
For the bettors reading, these are instrumental data points that tell a story and should be focused on in order to find value before the line moves.
Primetime Pressure: Chiefs vs. Cowboys
Before their game on national TV, Kansas City holds a 6-5 record, while Dallas is slightly behind at 5-5-1. Kansas City ranks 5th in the league in total yards gained with an average of 376 yards, and they also rank in the top six on the other end of the field, only allowing 293 yards on average. Even with the turbulence seen throughout the rest of the league in the past season, they have been able to stay disciplined and mistake-free.
With a total of 387 yards on average in offense gained in a game, Dallas leads the league in total offense, but with such a high total, they also rank 29th in the league in total yards on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 378 yards on average per game. Such a split in rank comes from a roster very split in personality. While Dallas does have an elite offense, they also have a very vulnerable and weak defense, which leads to the control vs. chaos nature of the game. Kansas City plays very well in structured games, but Dallas does prefer games with a lot of ‘fireworks’.
If the public is betting a lot of money on Dallas’ side for the sole reason of brand recognition, make sure to evaluate the sportsbook lay bets where it makes the most sense. When paired with a highly recognized opponent, Kansas City is often undervalued in the betting markets.
Turning Stats Into Betting Action
Here’s how you take the analysis and turn it into something actionable.
Packers-Lions: Pace should be the first consideration. Even with Detroit’s touchdown totals, Green Bay’s red-zone scoring defense is so good that they can keep the game close, forcing Detroit to play long, tiring possessions. This under is likely to be moved as the betting public sees Detroit’s offense. Efficiency under matches with high-scoring units. Also, keep an eye on the Packers’ injury situation. If the market overreacts to it, you should find a safe number on Green Bay.
Chiefs-Cowboys: For the situation with Chiefs-Cowboys, something to keep in mind is that Dallas’ defense has given up the most red-zone interceptions in the league this year, four. Kansas City gets disciplined drives, which work well with short fields, so props will be a good target. Specific props to look out for are interceptions, passing yards under, touchdowns, and so on.
Another thing that is important is that both games are on a short week. The more structured and deeper the team, benefits more, especially in the trenches. Kansas City has an offensive line injury to guard Trey Smith, which impacts their run game and interior push just a bit, but they still have the overall depth that is stronger than Dallas.
Projections and What Comes Next
In the game between the Packers and the Lions, Detroit loses 3-7 points due to consistency on the offensive side and the injuries to Green Bay players. Expect 40 to 50 points unless the players slow the pace. Since Detroit has numbers regarding YAC, unless the Green Bay players early on break the offensive rhythm, there will be steady drives.
In the game between the Chiefs and the Cowboys, Kansas has the most projected points to be the most situationally offensive team. Expect the team to dominate the offensive and mid-range area methodically and win, projecting the line to be 3 to 7 points. The points, lower than expected, will probably be projected to land on 50 and 54, volatile enough to be honest.
In the future, it appears Detroit has the strongest contention in the North NFC, if they can keep their offensive rhythm. Late in the game, Kansas still has to be positioned, if they can protect the quarterback Mahomes, sequencing in the red zone to the cleanest it can be. Dallas has mid-elite offensive talent, risking sliding to mid-competition status if they cannot adjust their defense quickly.
Expert Insights: 6 Practical Tips for Sharper Picks
1. Suppress the emotional holiday hype, considering the split values.
Historical value may be emotional, but it’s not a final consideration when dealing with holiday-legacy franchises. That’s when a holiday value play underdog, or total prop shines.
2. Focus on possession and pace metrics, rather than touchdowns.
They may be impressive, but scoring or YAC numbers don’t dictate game pace. Detroit has more than its fair share of red zone efficiency. Given the efficiency, it’s also worth factoring in Green Bay.
3. The impact of injuries on short weeks can be significant.
A single OL may shift protection schemes with only 3 days’ rest. Kansas City’s injury to the interior D and the Packers’ long injury report both impact trench play.
4. Take props to exploit the edges.
When the go-to pair of teams has the center stage, don’t take sides; take one of a pair of angles. Dallas has red zone turnover issues, and Detroit tends to YAC. Kansas City is good at suppressing yards and has a defense that isn’t easy to score on.
5. Anticipate the impact of public money.
Holiday games can attract some casual betting, which can distort lines. Any line movement that is likely due to heavy betting margins, or shade, should be avoided if the motivation to chase isn’t compelling.
6. Betting on holiday games should be synthesized from an unemotional standpoint.
Just because they are on a public holiday and the games are loud, it’s not an excuse to overbet. Find an actual edge rather than an exciting line, and stick to discipline.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: How Do Point Spreads Shape Sports Betting?
A: Point spreads betting balance matchups by giving the underdog a set number of points. A favourite must win by more than the spread to cover. Line movement reflects where sharp money and public money differ, helping bettors spot mispriced opportunities.
Q: Why do props matter in big nationally televised games?
A: Due to public interest, full game lines are likely to be more accurate. This shifts the focus to prop bets like player yardage props or turnover props and allows the better to identify a mismatch in the game that the main line likely is not considering.
Q: How does playing on a short week impact outcomes?
A: Teams are not as rested and have less prep time, which leaves them less time to gameplan. Depth and coaching become the most important factors in who wins. Well-awarded teams often outperform less well-structured high-variance teams on short weeks.
Q: When is betting the underdog smarter?
A: When the favourite is overpriced as a result of their public perception, for example, a big sponsored brand or recent hype. When comparing the expected overall outcome of the game to the point spread to calculate the underdog’s probability to win, that is when the point value can be obtained.
Q: How important are turnovers when handicapping games
A: Turnovers impact field position and tempo of the game. Teams that protect the ball do better than expected. Look at Dallas’ red-zone turnover are an example of how a strong offense can lose value.
Q: Should futures bets be influenced by Thanksgiving performance
A: Only to an extent. One high-profile game can shape narrative, but should not be the focus of your long-term projection. It’s a game to be used as data, not as the entire forecast.
Final Playbook
Thanksgiving week delivers games with real edges: Detroit’s offense is consistent and productive, Green Bay thrives on precision, the Chiefs are balanced and controlled, and the Cowboys combine explosive offense with leaky defense. If you plan to bet on football online, use the matchups—not the narratives—to find value. Pay attention to pace, health, public perception, and prop markets that exploit clear mismatches. Holiday football draws huge attention, but sharper bettors find leverage in what others overlook. Want to turn these insights into real plays? Head to BetNow and put the strategy to work.
Hilbert Mayer
Sports Writer
Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.
Published on: November 25, 2025
Last updated: November 30, 2025