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AFC South betting analysis

Football Betting Sportsbooks Glaze Over AFC South

Posted by: Charlie Smith

With the online NFL betting preseason kicking off this Thursday, players who bet on NFL cannot wait for the real season to begin. In the meantime, NFL bettors will be keeping a close eye on how the league’s newest recruits perform in order to make some Super Bowl betting predictions.

The AFC South hasn’t made a Super Bowl appearance since the 2009 Indianapolis Colts lost got torn apart by the New Orleans Saints. However, the division is constantly producing playoff contenders that are not to be taken lightly. Who will win the division in 2017?

Houston Texans

Odds to Win AFC South: +225 Odds to Win Super Bowl: +2900

The Texans needed a quarterback to compete for the Super Bowl and they thought they had it in Brock Osweiler. We all know how that mishap turned out, and the Texans were able to make football betting sportsbook history when they dumped Osweiler this offseason.

Houston’s defense was 2nd in passing and 1st overall in 2016, so there’s no reason to expect anything different from them this upcoming season. However, their quarterback situation is still uncertain.  They drafted Deshaun Watson, the man who was able to carve up the near indomitable Crimson Tide defense. But as things stand now, Tom Savage is the starting quarterback. Nothing against Savage, but most online NFL betting fans would prefer to see Watson start from Day 1.

Indianapolis Colts

Odds to Win AFC South: +235 Odds to Win Super Bowl: +4250

The Colts have missed the playoffs for the last two seasons consecutively now, thanks to two 8-8 seasons. 2015’s failures could be attributed to poor play from Andrew Luck, who only played 7 games but posted 15 touchdowns to 12 interceptions But last year’s failures can definitely be chocked up to the defense, who ranked near the bottom of the league, and not Luck – who posted a 96.4 passer rating.

Heading into this upcoming season, it doesn’t seem like the Colts have done a whole lot to expect a complete turnaround. They used their first three picks of the draft on defensive players, and picked three more towards the end of the draft. While they picked up some talent, most notably safety Malik Hooker, it’s hard to imagine real change.

Last season, the Colts’ defense finished 22nd in points, 25th in rushing, 27th in passing, and 30th in total defense. It’s hard to imagine Luck, despite being extremely talented, actually leading this team to the postseason with such a poor defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Odds to Win AFC South: +695 Odds to Win Super Bowl: +9050

The Jaguars are too inconsistent of a bunch to rally behind. At time, their offense is too explosive to contain. At others, they seem to shoot themselves in the foot more than finding the end zone. But even the quickest of glances reveals that the Jaguars have the makings to be dangerous, if they could find any semblance of consistency.

Last season, the Jaguars’ defense finished – much to the surprise of the entire football betting sportsbook community, 5th in passing, 6th overall, but 25th in points. This is mostly because of the constant poor field position that the Jags’ offense would leave them in. Nevertheless, Jacksonville appeared dominant on defense at times. Their offense, which ranked 20th or lower in every major stat, did not.

Tennessee Titans

Odds to Win AFC South: +220 Odds to Win Super Bowl: +4550

The Titans haven’t made the postseason for 8 years. This upcoming season will represent Mike Mularkey’s second season at the helm and it’s kind of hard to predict what we can expect.

The Titans have Marcus Mariota at quarterback, a young player who had a considerable amount of hype behind him. Mariota looks great on paper, averaging a 93.8 passer rating through his first two seasons under center. Unfortunately, Mariota doesn’t have that 4th quarter knack to pull his team from behind. And thanks to the Titans’ weak pass defense, which ranked 30th in the league last season, Mariota often found himself behind in points.

Overall, Tennessee needs a more productive passing game and a better pass defense as well. Their run defense finished 3rd overall, so there’s no concern here. Likewise, their running game was the 3rd best in the league, and it appears to already be up to speed.

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