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Are the Chargers Week 12’s NFL Betting Upset?

Posted by: Mike Davis
Chargers vs Texans NFL Week 12 Betting Preview

Notwithstanding a season ending injury to one of their greatest players, more than halfway through the season the Houston Texans have still found a way to lead the AFC South. At 6-4 the Texans are living up to the preseason NFL sportsbook predictions that Houston would take hold of the South in 2016. With a one game lead over the Indianapolis Colts, and a mediocre schedule before them, Houston’s football odds of winning keep getting better every day. In Week 12, the Texans will have to face off against the low-ranking San Diego Chargers. Heading into this contest, the Chargers will be at 4-6, 4th within the AFC West, and for all intents and purposes out of the playoffs. Either way, the Chargers can still cause a nuisance for Houston. Let’s see what kind of chances San Diego has of purloining a win this Sunday.

NFL Odds – Week 12 – Sunday, November 27th 

San Diego Chargers -2 (-110) 46½ (-110)
Houston Texans +2 (-110) 46½ (-110)

Usually the football odds side with the team with the better record, but as 2-point spread favorite, the Chargers are proving that they are outliers to that rule. The Chargers may not have a winning record, but they do have a winning offense. As things stand right now, the Chargers are scoring the 2nd most amount of points in the NFL, only behind the Atlanta Falcons. But the fact that the Chargers are scoring more points than the Cowboys, the Patriots, and the Raiders tells you that the offense isn’t the issue with this team. Simply put, it’s their defense.

Even though the Chargers rank as the 5th best defense against the run, they are friable in every other regard; the Chargers are 28th against the pass and are giving up the 28th most amount of points. However, the sundry holes in San Diego’s secondary are often accounted for by their ball-hawking defense backs, which are currently tied for 3rd in the league for most interceptions. Relying on your passing game against the Chargers could be a gamble, but the peculiar defense that the Chargers have; with them being good against the run but shoddy against the pass, could ultimately be what helps them uphold the prediction made by the football odds.

Despite the notoriously lucrative contract that the Texans threw at Brock Osweiler, Houston has the 30th worst passing offense in the NFL. In hindsight, there’re inarguably much better ways that the Texans could have spent those $72 million, but they’ll have to make do with their commitment. Passing game aside, the Texans have the 4th best rushing offense in the league. As aforementioned, the Chargers aren’t half bad against the run, so having the 4th best running attack might not help them out that much this Sunday. The Chargers don’t inspire a whole lot of confidence for a bet on NFL games, but they might just be able to pull off an upset in Week 12.