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Can the Chiefs Lock-up the West With a Win over the Bucs?

Posted by: Mike Davis
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Week 11 Betting

Heading into the 2016 season, NFL football betting experts had a suspicion that the AFC West would be the toughest division in the entire league. The West is the home of the reigning Super Bowl champions and the Chiefs who also made the playoffs on a Wild Card. Now that we’re heading into Week 11, it’s abundantly clear that the AFC West is indeed the most competitive division. No other division in the NFL has three teams with 7 or more wins, and no other division has three teams above .500 within one game of taking the lead. Currently the Chiefs lead the West, but it’s not that big of a shocker considering the fact that the Broncos came into the season with a brand new quarterback. At 7-2 the Chiefs have earned the right to lead the West and this upcoming weekend they’ll be looking to cement their place in the playoffs. Luckily enough for Kansas City, they’ll be squaring off against a pretty easy opponent. Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, what are the NFL football betting odds predicting?

NFL Odds – Week 11 – Sunday, November 20th

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7½ (-115) 45 (-107) +250
Kansas City Chiefs -7½ (-105) 45 (-113) -315

Of course, against the 4-5 Buccaneers, the football spread betting odds are going to be tilted in Kansas City’s favor. But considering that the Chiefs are coming off a game where they outscored the Panthers by 13-points, it is surprising to not see the spread go higher than 7-points. Can the Bucs keep up with the high-flying Chiefs?

Technically, the Bucs are averaging more points per contest than Kansas City. Right now the Chiefs are averaging 22.8 points per game, while the Bucs have an average of 24. That might not be a large difference, but it’s enough to rank Tampa Bay 13th in scoring and rank the Chiefs 18th. Interestingly enough, the Buccaneers are better statistically on offense than Kansas City. The Bucs are 17th in rushing, 16th in passing, and their total offense is the 14th best in the NFL. On the other hand, the Chiefs are 20th in rushing, 22nd in passing, and their total offense ranks as the 26th worst in the NFL. Yet somehow, despite the differences in their offenses, Kansas City finds themselves in a much better position than the Bucs. Putting aside statistics, it’s hard to imagine the Bucs actually upsetting the Chiefs.

Even though they don’t shine on paper, there is one statistic that has helped the Chiefs out tremendously. Heading into their game with the Bucs, Kansas City sports a +14 turnover ratio. By consistently forcing turnovers, the Chiefs can win their football games without being the flashiest team. Tampa Bay will be heading into this contest with a 0 turnover ratio, but NFL football betting fans can be confident that that will change after Sunday.