AFC West: Tightest Division in NFL Betting

Posted by: Charlie Smith
Broncos vs Chiefs NFL Week 12 Betting

Now that Week 11’s Monday Night Football action has completed, both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos find themselves one game behind the Oakland Raiders within the AFC West. There’s no question that the West is the tightest division in the league, and seeing the Raiders lead a division containing the reigning Super Bowl champion is a surprise few sportsbook fans saw coming. But there’s still enough football left in the season for either the Raiders of Chiefs to take hold of the West, but there’s only room for one at the top of the division. The best way for either Denver or Kansas City to take back ground in the division is by beating the other this upcoming Sunday. Let’s see what the NFL gambling odds have to say about Week 12’s AFC West matchup.

NFL Odds – Week 12 – Sunday, November 27th

Denver Broncos -3 (-125) 39½ (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs +3 (+105) 39½ (-110)

It should come as no surprise to see the NFL football odds favor the reigning champions, especially when considering that the Chiefs are coming off an embarrassing loss against the Buccaneers. But still, both teams are coming in at 7-3 and with less than spectacular play at the quarterback position. Alex Smith is a 12-year veteran who has thrown for 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions this season. With 2,077 passing yards to his name, Smith has earned himself a 91.2 passer rating. Those numbers may seem impressive, but with Smith under center Kansas City’s passing offense ranks as the 22nd worst in the NFL. The Broncos will be coming into this game with the 23rd worst passing offense in the league, which is fitting since they have similar numbers from their quarterback. Trevor Siemian will be heading into this contest with 12 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 2,028 yards, and an 85.0 passer rating.

Although the difference between the play at quarterback between these two teams isn’t substantial, the difference between their defenses are. The Broncos have a Super Bowl winning defense, while the Chiefs have a defense that seems statistically poor. Statistics don’t always translate into success with the NFL football odds, but they do provide a window into each team’s respective weaknesses. For example; the Broncos’ have the 29th worst defense against the run, but are ranked as the 2nd best defense against the pass. Clearly the Chiefs would be better off trying to run the ball on Sunday, but considering that they have the 21st worst run defense; they probably won’t enjoy too much success anyway. The Chiefs are 27th against the run and 16th against the pass and have the 25th worst total defense in the league. Meanwhile, the Broncos have the 4th best total defense in the league, which only highlights the vast differences between these two teams’ defenses. With all things considered, it’s surprising to not see the NFL football odds favor the Broncos’ more heavily.