Should you Let Bowl wins affect your Future Predictions?
Posted by: Charlie Smith
Engaging in NCAA football betting can lead to some severe headaches as predictions don’t always pan out, and while the sportsbooks do their best to keep the odds updated sometimes a team’s status is overinflated. More so in college football where there are very few games, not every school plays each other, and where some games are valued more than others. With the college football season ending with bowl games more often than not teams are ranked higher than they actually deserve. Sure winning a bowl game is a significant achievement and teams shouldn’t feel like it’s’ being undervalued. The problem arises when critics overvalue a team’s postseason victory and give them higher rankings more than half a year away from the start of the following season. Sportsbooks then create odds based on the expectations of critics, highlighting the need to stop praising bowl winners. With that in mind let’s take a look at some college football teams whose status across the nation is inflated.
Michigan ended last season on a high note with a 41 – 7 victory over Florida in the Citrus Bowl. Jim Harbaugh’s first year at the helm was a great success taking a 5 – 7 team to a 10 – 3 season. While his first year shows great promise, it seems that the win over Florida was enough to build the hype around this team. Heading into next season Michigan’s success isn’t guaranteed. The three losses it endured last season came against the schedule’s toughest opponents, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Utah. Even though two of those games were played at home the Wolverines were still unable to scrape by a win. While having a winning record is important, it’s even more crucial to beat the best teams you play or risk garnering a less than stellar reputation. Michigan’s defense should be more than enough to win them a few games this season, but unless Hargbaugh can sort out the quarterback situation it’s unlike this team will fare well against the nation’s top schools.
Another post season blowout was enjoyed by Tennessee who beat Northwestern in the Outback Bowl 45 – 6. Their impressive performance was enough to place them in the top 10 for the Coaches Poll, something Tennessee hadn’t done in 10 years. Tennessee’s defense was feared across the nation; they ranked third for yards allowed per play last season (5.21). Unfortunately their offense wasn’t able to match that success only putting up 5.56 yards per play. This team shows a lot of promise, but promise doesn’t always translate into success.
Houston also had a first year head coach at the helm last season. Tom Herman was able to enjoy even more success than Harbaugh did in Michigan. Herman led the Cougars to a 13 – 1 record and a 38 – 24 win over Florida State in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl. With that bowl win Houston earned its first top 10 Coaches Poll ranking in over 37 years. Although they enjoyed a near perfect season last year sportsbooks odds shouldn’t be too quick to jump on the Houston bandwagon. Quarterback Greg Ward Jr. may be returning but the offensive line that kept him upright last year won’t be the same. Even less can be said about the defensive line. Either way their ranking will be put to the test when they open the season against #3 Oklahoma.