Nearly 2,700 players entered the transfer portal before the April 22 deadline ahead of the 2025-26 men’s college basketball season. That number alone tells you how different this upcoming season will look within conferences and on betting lines. Fans, analysts, and people comparing odds on college basketball betting sites need to pay close attention now — not later — to roster moves, coaching changes, and preseason rankings. What you’ll get below: the biggest roster and coach changes, impact stats, teams rising or falling, how this affects strategy, and smart projections. Sections ahead cover: the primary insights with stats, supporting comparisons, practical implications, and forward-looking projections. Then expert tips. Finally, FAQs to arm you with knowledge before lines open and sportsbooks post early numbers.
Transfer Turmoil and Coaching Shakeups
The amount of roster turnover that has happened is staggering. Over 2600 players have filed their transfer paperwork. Many of the top 100 transfers have already been assigned to new teams. For instance, PJ Haggerty transitions from Memphis to Kansas State, having averaged ~ 1.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game while shooting 3’s at 36.4% (better pace). Another instance is from Bennett Stirtz, from Drake to Iowa, who averaged 19.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 5.7 APG and was the leader in points per replacement (PRPG) metric. These aren’t just minor role players; these are high-value impact transfers who can change the balance of a conference.
Concerning coaching personnel, there have been an estimated 58 head coaching changes in DI men’s basketball. Buzz Williams is now in charge of Maryland after Kevin Willard moved to Villanova. Darian DeVries has taken the role at Indiana. Such changes are important since, if the style of coaching, the strength of the recruiter, and the system are changed, it might take the entire season to adjust and settle, but it is certain to impact the rankings and expectations in the preseason.
The early odds will be erratic. Teams that have low roster volatility or substantial impact transfers are likely to be favored in early spreads on over/under lines. Teams undergoing coaching changes are likely to be undervalued since disruptions of this nature will be ignored by the majority of the betting market.
Comparing This Offseason to Past Years
When compared to recent seasons, the 2025-26 offseason indicates transfer volume is continuing to increase. Even two years ago, transfers were noticeable, but the number of top-100 caliber players who changed schools was significantly less. Now the portal has been normalized. Stability is rare. Some historical blue bloods are doing well with the changes; others, less so.
Consider Kentucky: RotoWire has the Wildcats classed 4th for preseason ranking, behind only Purdue, Houston, and Florida, and ahead of many other schools with very strong historical programs. Kentucky’s class has transfers such as Jayden Quaintance (Arizona State) as well as very talented guard Jaland Lowe. Similarly, St. John’s, Duke, Louisville, Michigan, and UConn are also spread out in the top ten of various preseason polls. The Big East, SEC, and Big 10 are all projected to be highly competitive.
The changes in coaching put Buzz Williams-led Maryland, DeVries-led Indiana, Florida State with Luke Loucks, and Miami with Jai Lucas coaching on the same level as more prestigious programs. There tend to be gaps in age, recruiting, and NIL infrastructure which will be exploitable in mismatches early in the season.
The college basketball coaching carousel 2025 is in full swing; several hires made late in the offseason may lag in recruiting or scheme installation, creating soft spots early in the schedule. Betting lines might lag behind true strength or weakness until teams prove consistency.
How Bettors Can Gain an Edge
If you’re betting, fantasy building, or just trying to follow the sport, what should you do?
Review lower-tier non-conference schedule. It should indicate how well new coaches are integrating, what progress transfers are making. The lines might be soft until the shape of the market stabilizes after sharp action.
Look for value in those who had multi-year foundational pieces and significant transfers. Kentucky, Kansas State (with Haggerty), and Iowa (with Stirtz) should be capable of much better results than anticipated early on. You might be able to extract value on over/under and futures on conference title bets.
Practice restraint on teams with new coaches, particularly those with subpar recruiting. It doesn’t matter how much better the new coach is; the culture and infrastructure take time to solidify, and that could mean enduring losses for the composition of the new staff. Don’t overinvest until the middle of the season.
Adjust your evaluations based on injury and discipline reports. Those who are currently publicly in the transfer portal and the draft are in what structurally might be called a “limbo” state. It is problematic for both betting and projections.
Early Predictions and Season Outlook
Here are predictions and what we see as likely:
The front-runners for national favorites appear to be Purdue, Houston, Florida, and Kentucky, in no particular order. Their position in popularity has much to do with recruiting, transfers, coaching upside, and overall stability. Kentucky’s soaring reputation since the sweet sixteen surpasses the competition. Their increase in popularity is very much deserved.
The reemergence of the Big East conference has become dominated by Villanova, UConn, St. John’s, and Xavier (new coach Richard Pitino). The New Big East should be aiming for multiple teams in the Final Four. The coaching rivalries and recruiting in the Northeast and East will become very active.
Breakouts with a twist: Programs geared for success with new, successful leadership, along with beneficial transfers–e.g., Indiana with DeVries, Maryland with Buzz Williams–could overachieve dramatically. While their defenses remain intact, they could become a conference threat.
Potential traps: Programs with numerous departures and shrunken depth may struggle greatly. Coaching changes at the lower tier could spell early record deficits and poor public image, necessitating changes. In addition, the effects of injuries and ineligibility come late and can negate narrow wins or determine conference seeding.
Expert Insights
Here are tips from analysts to get an edge:
Track Transfer Leaders: Direct producers, for instance, Haggerty and Stirtz, top 100 transfers. For anticipated profits, bet on futures and props early on their teams.
Understand Changes of Staff: New coaches come with different approaches to pace, defense, and recruiting. Historical data can be used to formulate a range of realistic goals.
For Any Planning Schedules: Non-conference and travel tests are weaknesses. Go off to bet on home or neutral games for new teams.
Vet The Strength Of The Conference: The depth of the top 3 conferences, SEC, Big 10 and Big East jumped to the top. Base the estimate of the difficulty of the schedule against the reputation of the program.
Apply Proxy Stats: Health metrics like PRPG and efficiency, as well as controlling turnovers, are more useful for predicting the results than the anaemic raw numbers records.
Consider Secondary Issues: The shape of the rosters can be transformed through NIL, eligibility, and injuries — pay attention to the official news.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What are the biggest transfer portal stories for 2025-26?
A: Players like PJ Haggerty (to Kansas State), Bennett Stirtz (to Iowa), and others in the top-100 list are among the high profile transfers. These moves are expected to shift power inside conferences immediately.
Q: How many head coaching changes happened, and why does it matter?
A: Roughly 58 Div I men’s head coaching changes have been confirmed. These changes matter because coaching style, staff familiarity, recruiting strategy, and continuity affect how quickly teams gel and how their freshmen/transfers integrate.
Q: What to Know About College Basketball Betting Laws?
A: Betting laws vary by state and country. In the U.S., it depends on state-level rules — some allow sportsbooks, others don’t. Always check local regulations. Legal college basketball betting requires licensed operators, while unlicensed sites carry financial, legal, and fraud risks.
Q: When will preseason rankings start solidifying?
A: During the non-conference schedule (which starts in late October or early November), there begins to be some shifts in the rankings. However, most of them become stable after 5-10 games in the season. This is especially true for teams with new players or coaching staff.
Q: How much predictive power do preseason rankings have?
A: The value of preseason rankings serves as a starting point, but there is a high likelihood they will be wrong for mid-majors or teams that make sudden impacts, as well as teams that acquire game-changing transfers. The tendency is to underrate the game-changing transfers. These ranks do help in determining what the value expectation is, but there is usually emphasis on low-valued teams that are most likely to surpass, or the teams that are least noticed.
Q: How should bettors approach futures bets in 2025-26?
A: If you believe in a strong team that includes incoming transfers, stable coaching, and a schedule in their favor, buy their stocks early. But hedge: teams with a lot of changes are much more volatile. There is no certainty, so pay attention to injuries or other changes then watch the first few games to see the team pan out.
Q: What are the risks in betting early in the season?
A: Most have to do with new players or coaches – possible injuries, eligibility, performance volatility, etc. As well, betting lines are early on much more generous to underdogs. Heavy public bet later often shifts lines.
Q: Are there emerging metrics or new stats to use this season?
- Yes. There are new stats like PRPG (points added over replacement), 3pt assists and turnovers, lineup-based stats, and adjusted pace of possession. Some measure ‘fit’ more appropriately than just scoring or reputation metrics. RotoWire and BartTorvik are examples of these new stats.
What to Remember Going Forward
- Roster churn is real: transfer portal has changed the baseline. Teams with impact newcomers + stable cores are likely to outperform early.
- Coaching changes will create early inefficiencies in betting lines. Some programs may under-deliver until systems are in place.
- Preseason rankings give clues, but bold picks come from identifying undervalued teams with favorable schedules or unheralded transfers.
- Watch for legal/eligibility/injury news — they can swing value in both futures and single-game betting.
If you stay sharp on roster moves, coaching hires, and statistical indicators, the upcoming NCAAB season offers opportunity. For those looking to get in early on futures or lines, now’s the time to start comparing odds on college basketball betting sites, lock in value, and set yourself up ahead of the public. BetNow is a good place to monitor early lines and promos.
Hilbert Mayer
Sports Writer
Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.
Published on: September 14, 2025
Last updated: September 15, 2025