Almost three-quarters of college basketball bettors say they modify their preseason bets based on the results of exhibition games, a figure that will likely rise with the 2025-26 NCAAB season about to tip off. These tune-up games are no longer just glorified scrimmages; they have become important data points for sharp bettors poring over college basketball betting sites, looking for value before the first official tip.
During the exhibition season, there are already plenty of data points to record: college basketball’s basketball powerhouses are testing new rotations, top recruits are showing off their skills, and, perhaps most surprisingly, new contestants are hinting they could be season spoilers and should be added to your betting slips. Most importantly, these performance indicators are starting to shift bow preseason odds and totals have been set across the major sportsbooks.
What researchers should take from this assessment is:
- Preseason results overreactions and the exhibition season.
- Constructing a preseason team health and depth betting model.
- Igniting a betting hype off preseason stats versus real metrics.
- Conjectures on what the preseason metrics will look like once the real games start.
It’s framing the narrative to sign a precursor exhibition box score so you can start your betting.
Exhibition Blowouts and Starter Minutes Reveal Team Health & Depth
Consider the recent basketball game where the Gonzaga Bulldogs defeated NAIA Northwest 111-62. The Bulldogs scored plenty of points, but on 57.1% of their attempts, they also had problems scoring on Gonzaga’s free throws. The UConn Huskies, on the other hand, also emerged victorious over their opponent, the Boston College Eagles, 71-52. The game constituted an exhibition for UConn, and they did so without several key starters.
The main takeaway, however, concerns what sportsbooks and the betting public do when they see exhibition matches with excessively easy wins—and sportsbooks tend to shift the betting lines after the first real season game. Confidence in a team’s depth may arise when bench players and new transfers log a lot of minutes in an exhibition. The Gonzaga team bench and freshmen players made significant contributions over the exhibition game, quite likely showing that lineups may be being tested and the team may be underestimated in futures betting.
Implication for bettors: If a team dominates an exhibition contest, especially with new or fringe starters logging valuable minutes, this could be a sign to look for future betting lines or lines that may be undervalued. Bet quickly, before the odds tighten. A weaker opponent that doesn’t adjust or an artificial game configuration doesn’t allow for a dominant exhibition performance to predict regular-season dominance, so be cautious. Exhibitions are a signal, not a guarantee.
Roster Changes, Freshmen Impacts & Undervalued Teams
Exhibitions showcase more than one result. They provide a narrative of roster changes over the summer—the arrival of freshmen, the integration of transfer players, and the ongoing adjustments of returnees. Consider how the Illinois Fighting Illini triumphed over Illinois State, scoring 92-65, fueled by the contributions of new players David Mirkovic (19 points, 14 rebounds, 6 assists) and Zvonimir Ivisic (15 points, 5 rebounds). This suggests the Illini may hit the regular season packed with more depth and talent than most assumed.
Some teams show holes in their exhibitions. This may appear in low free-throw scoring, weak play, and rotation from the guards, or poor overall chemistry. Gonzaga will serve as an example. They won the match convincingly, but their free-throw scoring was weak, and the coach had issues with eligibility concerning a key player, Tyon Grant-Foster. This weak performance should be taken as a caution, not as a cue to endorse the team fully.
On scores of pending value releases from a college basketball betting guide, this should be clear: teams that lose key players or gain new transfers should be priced as value. Exhibitions provide the opportunity to identify these “quiet overachievers”. On the other side of the balance, teams that have cruised through exhibitions yet show clear underlying issues are likely to be overvalued by the hype and easy betting for the public.
With respect to the player indicating potential, we see:
- Freshman impact = these teams are likely confident in their overall depth and balance of their development.
- Transfer contribution = a player quickly producing suggests a tight engagement and minimal risk as a new player in the system.
- Depth test = If key starters are resting and the bench still performs well, that shows positive depth.
- Free-throw line and turnovers = If a team dominates but struggles in these metrics, that is a red flag that could influence totals and spread performance.
How to Use Exhibition Data to Your Advantage
Having examined the data provided, how do you put it into practice for betting on the upcoming regular season? Here are some steps you can follow:
- Exhibition box scoring, especially minutes, shooting percentages, bench contributions, and turnovers/fouls, gives you an idea of the team’s depth, cohesion, and real performance levels beyond just the final score and subjective assessments of the game.
- When you determine team strength, modify your futures bets sooner rather than later. If you see a team you think is more likely to go deep in the tournament based on your evaluations, place your bets on them for conference winner and national title higher rounds before oddsmakers do. Sites holding bets will show you how the betting public and oddsmakers are reacting.
- Exhibition games are especially useful to monitor over/under (total points) betting. They show game pace (fast or slow) and scoring proficiency and weakness (inability to hit free throws, turnovers). A game’s score relative to the total points will be critical.
- Be sure to also note the context of a dominant exhibition win. A one-sided score can indicate strength, but if the competition is unbalanced and the opponent is severely undermatched, value is likely already in the price. Quality, not just a large margin, should be your focus.
- Utilize the pre-season for training in your betting strategies. There is no need to wager every opportunity, but use exhibition games to refine your understanding of the teams’ form to improve your skills in predicting against the odds when the real betting starts.
What These Trends Suggest for the 2025–26 Season
Given what we have seen so far from the exhibition games, here is my outlook for the coming season:
Expect teams that have relied on freshmen and employed deep rotations during exhibition games to come out strong in November and early December. These teams will be capable of exceeding the early market expectations, presenting good first-month betting opportunities.
Betting on teams that struggle to shoot free throws, turn the ball over excessively, or over-rely on one player will result in weak performances or losses, especially early on. Such teams will also be more likely to miss the spread.
The early betting on futures markets (national titles, conference winners) will likely have more value with aggressive odds and later larger shifts during the season. This will be a result of exhibition games confirming previously hidden strengths.
Exhibition games will likely result in higher betting on over/under, likely due to the availability of a quickly paced and efficient exhibition offense. This will likely turn to the under on a more stabilizing offense, while dynamic defensive exhibition games will likely result in an under.
For sportsbook users: identify sportsbook betting sites that publish early lines and futures that show significant movements after exhibition games. Be ready to execute when value presents.
Expert Insights
Use exhibition + depth minutes as a value indicator.
If a squad consistently shows good results while starters are off the court or playing limited minutes, it indicates depth rather than just talent. Use it as a starting point to identify value bets that may be overlooked. At this point, the market hasn’t fully adjusted.
Evaluate free-throw and turnover trends as well, not just the final score.
A large margin win is always enticing, but if it results from poor free-throw shooting or a large number of turnovers, it is a sign that the win might be unsustainable. Wins and losses feed the headline score, while the spread and total bets are more affected by these marginal metrics.
Place early futures bets to secure value before odds tighten.
Exhibitions frequently predate line changes. When you identify a team that is making real advancements, you can place early bets on futures (conference winner, Final Four) that provide better odds, as the line moves.
Analyze the seat industry-wide data on resources.
Advanced analytics and betting trend trackers are useful as they show you where the betting public is, where the money is flowing, and give you analytical insights.
Do not overvalue a solitary exhibition game, but build an ensemble of trends.
A good exhibition game does not guarantee a team will be successful for the rest of the season. Look for clear signs, consistent over many games, against different opposition, and sustained minutes from the bench or freshmen.
Approach the season with caution.
Utilize the exhibitions to form educated guesses; do not place assured wagers. Any pre-season betting should be done using conservative bankroll percentages, with the expectation that you will readjust your stake for the sharper odds that will be available after the season starts.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: How reliable are exhibition games for predicting regular-season outcomes?
A: Moderately so. Exhibitions reveal some early indicators of a team’s depth, chemistry, and efficiency, but the strength of competitors varies widely, and teams are allowed to experiment, so consider them as possible indicators, but not reliable ones.
Q: Can I place bets purely based on the exhibition performance of a team?
A: You can, but it’s highly speculative. Exhibition performance data needs to be evaluated along with other factors such as roster changes, injuries, and the strength of the schedule. This data should be one of many tools in your analysis.
Q: Are futures odds worth placing before the regular season starts?
A: Absolutely, if you identify value. Early futures odds provide better value as the odds are often higher and may not capture hidden strengths that a team has demonstrated in their exhibition games, but also carry more risk as many variables remain unaccounted for.
Q: Is Parlay Betting Worth the Risk at the NCAA Basketball Betting Sites?
A: College basketball parlay bets can offer high payouts, but the risk increases with each leg added. Because exhibitions don’t guarantee outcomes, using them in parlays requires caution—one unexpected loss can destroy the entire parlay.
Q: How do I handicap over/under (total) bets using exhibition data?
A: Scoring pace (possessions per game), shooting efficiency, and free-throw percentages can tell you a lot in exhibition situations. In case a team is both quick and effective, you can bet on the over. If they have a lot of turnovers and free-throw problems, bet on the under.
Q: Should I trust the win margin from exhibitions to predict spread performance?
A: Margin can assist, but it is not as predictive as bench metrics, shooting percentages, and turnover rates. The weaker the opponent, the higher the margin becomes meaningless. A 30-point win against weak competition is not as valuable as a solid win against strong competition.
Q: When should I adjust my bets after exhibition games?
A: Adjusting these bets can happen a week after exhibitions due to the regular season schedule and line movements. You should adjust futures and early-season matchups as close to the exhibitions as possible to capture the value before the odds shift.
Q: What’s the biggest mistake bettors make when using exhibition data?
A: Overvaluing prominent wins is a common flaw due to a lack of contextual understanding (mechanics of the opponent, bench minutes, and statistical weaknesses), and teams are still tweaking their game plans and rotations.
Getting in Ahead of the Crowd
Here are the key takeaways:
- Exhibition games are more than just dress rehearsals—they’re early signals of team depth, chemistry and readiness.
- Focus on what the stats show (bench minutes, turnovers, free-throws) and set your bets before odds shorten.
- Use college basketball betting websites wisely to monitor futures, line moves and betting trends.
- Future bets and totals markets are where you’ll find the value if you act now, not later.
Keep tracking those exhibitions. When you spot a team outperforming expectations, you want to be ready. Your next bet at BetNow (not a suggestion, but you know where to go) could turn these signals into profit.
Hilbert Mayer
Sports Writer
Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.
Published on: October 21, 2025
Last updated: October 21, 2025