Did you know that over 60% of rookie players already have their odds set for them before even stepping on the court for their first regular-season game? All of the injuries, depth chart movements, and preseason form result in volatility. If you are searching for the NBA top betting sites, you are going to need to have a sense of the value before sportsbooks adjust.
The 2025-2026 NBA season has not even started, and the betting markets are already on the move. The number two pick, Dylan Harper, had thumb surgery in September and could miss the entire training camp. Other rookies such as Thomas Sorber and Derik Queen are also set to miss a long period of time with injuries, changing the odds for rookie of the year and reshaping rotations. The Brooklyn Nets are in the middle of a rebuild and have 5 first-round picks, and the Phoenix Suns are banking on Mark Williams to help reinforce their defense, even with his injury history.
Here, you’ll learn how these injuries and roster moves affect betting lines, futures, and props. We’ll cover draft fallout, practical betting applications, expert tips, and key projections as the season approaches.
Early Betting Breakdown
Rookie Injury Shake-Up: Dylan Harper’s Thumb Surgery & Betting Impact
Dylan Harper was the second overall pick for the San Antonio Spurs and will have to have surgery for his partially torn left thumb. Harper would have to undergo 54 days of recovery for this surgery, and with the NBA season opening in 47 days, his chance of showing up to preseason games is highly unlikely. His training camp improvement is unattainable as well.
This deficit will change the Spurs’ rotation. De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Devin Vassell will be spending more time in the backcourt. This will change the anticipated total points for the beginning of the season and the spreads for the games. Harper’s absence will more strongly be felt in October and November as the betting trends suggest that the Spurs’ points over/under will be avoided in those months.
The Rookie of the Year market is affected as well. Harper will be competing with more players now, but has a better chance of winning as his competitors have more playing time to showcase. His better odds will drift up, while others, such as Cooper Flagg, gain even more dominance in the market.
Futures Fallout from Sorber & Queen
The 2025 NBA Draft not only harmonized excitement but also brought about some immediate betting repercussions. 15th overall, Georgetown’s Thomas Sorber has torn his ACL and will not play the 2025–26 season. On the other hand, Derik Queen, selected by the New Orleans Pelicans, had wrist surgery and will be out for around three months.
This changes the betting lines for Rookie of the Year. When the betting doors opened, Cooper Flagg was a heavy favorite at -250, while Dylan Harper’s odds sat around 10/1. With Sorber and Queen now injured, the rookie pool’s depth is depleting at a rapid pace. Sorber and Queen have been noted as long shots in the betting circles, yet now, Tre Johnson is regarded as a candidate who may break out this season.
From the team’s perspective, the absence of Sorber will limit Georgetown’s NBA talent showcase and will require the Pelicans to reorganize their frontcourt rotation. This will create betting opportunities for overs on other role players who will take on Queen’s expected minutes.
With rookies going down before the season even starts, oddsmakers are also keeping an eye on the latest NBA trade rumors, since roster changes can quickly swing win totals and player props just as much as injuries do.
Nets’ Rebuild vs. Suns’ Gamble
The divisions between the teams in this matchup are drastic. The Nets are hitting a reset. They enter the season projected to win fewer than 30 games, and, dumped five first-rounders in the 2025 Draft. With a complete roster of players who are still developing their skills, the Nets are a prime candidate for under win total bets for the season.
Compare that to the Phoenix Suns, who traded for center Mark Williams to address their rebounding and defensive depth issues. It’s a risk with his recent injury issues, but if Williams stays healthy, the Suns could outperform expectations, pushing their win total line higher. If he goes down again, there’s a chance that the Suns’ interior defense might deteriorate, and the overs on the opponent’s scoring would become tempting bets.
The Nets are a classic fade team—young, raw, and not expected to push for playoff contention. The Suns sit in a different tier in terms of volatility; however, they should hold off until they see consistent play before they start backing overs on win total bets.
Actionable Betting Plays
Opening night totals. The Spurs games could be under the total more times with Harper missing games. It would be reasonable to take unders on the Spurs team totals in the first few weeks.
Rookie futures. Flagg’s odds are short, but bettors looking for value should explore alternatives like Tre Johnson or Bryce James if lines are slow to change.
Win totals. Brooklyn could be poised as the underachiever. A bet on their win total in the preseason could look good as the season progresses. The Suns are more volatile; watch how Williams performs at the start before making a decision.
Prop markets. Usage changes with injuries. Players on the benches who get more minutes ─ particularly on the Pels ─ might lead to good overs on their rebounds, steals, and points.
Season Outlook Ahead
By November, expect multiple corrections to the market.
Harper may be back for the opening game, but his minutes may be limited. His props will be overly cautious, so expect smart line mappers to look for lines that gamely underestimate his eventual scoring pace.
Without Queen, the Pelicans will be forced to extend the depth of their rotation. Once he returns in January, the betting markets will need time to assimilate, which is a solid opportunity for sharp lines.
For the entire year, Sorber is a non-factor, which in turn means that Flagg’s clear path to the Rookie of the Year will remain unless, of course, some rookie goes nuclear during the middle of the season.
Nets will likely be lower in the projections as the losses add up, granting them some opportunities to fade late in the season.
Suns’ projections remain the same as the rest of the league, pending Williams’ availability. If he is in form by December, the overs would probably be a safe bet.
Sharp Betting Tips
Timelines for Recovery
Harper’s performance will dictate the Spurs’ betting lines, and reports regarding his thumb should be checked every day. Markets usually lag behind official reports.
Comparative Shopping
Without Queen and Sorber, some books adjust faster than others. There is an opportunity here, so take advantage of it.
Preseason Usage
Pay attention to the preseason box scores, as the numbers are crucial during the beginning of the season and even some props during the season.
Don’t Get Swept Away by Public Enthusiasm
While the rebuilding phase is likely to underperform, betting on them to succeed seems to be a general guess. Evading the ‘bounce-back’ money is a good approach.
Use the NBA Trade Rumors
Currently, the lines for the latest NBA trades are fairly static. If trades around stars and role players gain steam, get your bets in early and take the estimated outcomes before the bookmakers adjust the lines.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: How do injuries affect early betting markets?
A: Even short-term injuries can shift spreads and totals. Books tend to adjust cautiously, which creates opportunity for sharp bettors to find value before lines stabilize.
Q: Is now the time to bet Rookie of the Year futures?
A: Yes. Injury news has thinned the field. Waiting too long could mean losing value as sportsbooks adjust. Early bets on healthy rookies offer the best edge.
Q: Should I bet team win totals before opening night?
A: It depends. For teams like the Nets, betting unders early makes sense. For volatile teams like the Suns, it’s smarter to wait for a few weeks of game data.
Q: How should bettors approach Spurs games without Harper?
A: Unders on team totals and props favoring Fox or Castle make sense. Expect a slower start offensively until Harper returns.
Q: Can in-game betting be affected by injury news?
A: Yes. If Harper plays limited minutes, live prop markets may undervalue or overvalue his actual impact. In-game bettors can exploit this mismatch.
Q: How do rookies’ preseason injuries affect betting long-term?
A: It often delays their development curve, reducing early prop profitability but sometimes creating buy-low opportunities midseason.
Q: What NBA bettors should know about Summer League?
A: NBA Summer League is often the first real look at rookies. Harper showed promise but struggled with three-point shooting before his injury. These performances influence early prop lines.
Final Betting Takeaways
The 2025–26 NBA season hasn’t started, but betting markets are already reacting to injuries and draft fallout. Dylan Harper’s thumb surgery affects Spurs scoring and Rookie of the Year odds. Thomas Sorber and Derik Queen’s injuries further thin the rookie field, leaving Cooper Flagg as the heavy favorite. Teams like the Nets are clear under candidates, while the Suns are a high-variance play depending on Mark Williams’ health.
The NBA trade rumors will continue to pop up and reshape futures markets, especially for playoff hopefuls. Bettors who stay ahead of injury timelines, preseason usage, and trade chatter will find the most value.
If you’re serious about locking in profitable bets, track these developments now rather than later. This is where sharp money is made—before the market corrects. For those ready to act, head to BetNow and secure your lines while the value is still live. The season is about to tip off, and the smartest bets are already on the table.
Hilbert Mayer
Sports Writer
Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.
Published on: September 8, 2025
Last updated: September 8, 2025