New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Picks – 09/08/19

At the beginning of the season, the Yankees took immediate command of the American League East and have never looked back.  New York boasts one of the most powerful lineups in the big leagues.  However, starting pitching has become an MLB betting worry.  Many believe that if the Bronx Bombers don’t tighten up on the hill a World Series run will fall short.  On the other hand, the Red Sox have been playing with a World Series championship hangover all season.  Boston has been even worse on the mound and without a quality closer.

Tweets by RedSox

New York Yankees

Now the Yankees enter this one with a record of 91-49 with only 60 games under the total. New York has won seven of their last nine games with seven-under in that span. Overall the Yankees rank second for runs scored and 14th for staff ERA. The Bronx Bombers bullpen ranks eighth-best in MLB.

Players to Watch: RHSP Masahiro Tanaka (10-8, 1.23 WHIP, 4.42 ERA, 133 K, 163 IP), P Aroldis Chapman (3-2, 36 SV, 1.14 SHIP, 2.22 ERA, 79 K, 52,2 IP), 2B DJ LeMahieu (97 R, 28 2B, 2 3B, 24 HR, 90 RBI, .331 AVG, .378 OBP, .531 SLG, .909 OPS), 2B Gleyber Torres (87 R, 21 2B, 33 HR, 78 RBI, .284 AVG, .347 OBP, .536 SLG, .883 OPS), C Gary Sanchez (58 R, 11 2B, 1 3B, 34 HR, 74 RBI, .237 AVG, .313 OBP, .543 SLG, 855 OPS)

Boston Red Sox

Late on the Red Sox have been in good form with six wins in their last nine games. Boston is 74-64 with only 56 of their games staying under the total. MLB metrics have the Red Sox ranked third for run production but 19th for staff earned run average. Of great concern is a bullpen that ranks 12th in the majors. Boston is 5.5 games out of a wild card spot.

Players to Watch: RHSP Rick Porcello (12-11, 1.44 WHIP, 5.63 ERA, 122 SO, 153.1 IP), P Brandon Workman (9-1, 10 SV, 1.04 WHIP, 2.17 ERA, 90 K, 62.1 IP), 3B Rafael Devers (114 R, 48 2B, 4 3B, 29 HR, 107 RBI, .320 AVG, .369 OBP, .579 SLG, .948 OPS), RF Mookie Betts (123 R, 39 2B, 5 3B, 23 HR, 70 RBI, .285 AVG, .385 OBP, .503 SLG, .888 OPS), LF JD Martinez (89 R, 30 2B, 2 3B, 34 HR, 93 RBI, .315 AVG, .391 OBP, .586 SLG, .976 OPS)

Trends

New York Yankees

11-6 in their last 17 road tilts
2-9-1 under the total in their last 12 away games
14-2 in their last 16 games against the American League East
9-3 over the total in games vs. the AL East
11-7 on the road against AL East teams
8-3 over the total away from home vs. the AL East
11-4 in their last 15 games against the Red Sox
9-2 over the total in their last 11 meetings with Boston

Boston Red Sox

7-5 in their last 12 home games
3-8 under the total in their last 11 tilts at Fenway Park
3-8 in their last 11 matchups with American League East teams
10-4 over the total against the AL East
9-5 in their last 14 Fenway Park matchups with the AL East
8-2 over the total at home vs. the American League East
13-6 in their last 19 games at Fenway Park against New York
10-1-1 over the total at home vs. the Yankees

In this situation, the Yankees will bring their best legal betting value as a road team. The price will be far more affordable than if they were at home. Additionally, Aroldis Chapman is a difference-maker Boston lacks.

Score Prediction: New York Yankees 6, Boston Red Sox 3