New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers 10/1/24 – As October baseball begins with the chaotic time of Wild Card round, the New York Mets (89-73) try their luck on the road at Milwaukee and face the Brewers (93-69) in an entertaining game. However, it is intriguing that the match shifts to Oriole Park at Camden Yards, thereby introducing a neutral territory. This clash of top-tier opposition means that there is everyone who is out to win the game, thus it is an important time for gamblers who want to take advantage of the MLB wildcard free picks.
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers 10/1/24
| When: | Tuesday, October 1, 2024, at 5:32 PM ET |
|---|---|
| Where: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards |
| TV: | ESPN, Fubo |
| Stream: | MLB.TV |
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers 10/1/24
| Team | RL | TOTAL | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | +1.5 (-198) | 7.5 over (-105) | +115 |  |
| Brewers | -1.5 (+164) | 7.5 under (-115) | -135 | |
| ||||
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— New York Mets (@Mets) October 1, 2024
The betting odds reveal a slight favor towards the Brewers with a -135 moneyline, reflecting their solid season record and slightly better performance metrics—the Mets, while underdogs, present a resilient spread option at +1.5. For total runs, the odds lean towards a moderately high-scoring game, with the over 7.5 runs at -105, suggesting that the bettors expect the bats to play a significant role.
Luis Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA) vs. Freddy Peralta (11-9, 3.68 ERA)
The Mets’ pitching strength will largely depend on Luis Severino, an 11-start and 3-win pitcher in regular duties. Severino has 182 innings under his belt with a whopping WHIP of 1.24 and has struck out 161 hitters with only 60 walks issued. He is perfect for trying to control a Brewers team that is competent with the bat, both in terms of his control of the herd and limiting the long ball (23 all season). However, it may be the Severino who has the experience and mental strength in such difficult-end matches that may count the most in a battle that every pitch is worth something.
On the other hand, the Brewers have the services of Freddy Peralta, who has an 11-9 win-loss record and boasts an ERA of 3.68. His potential with impressive strikeout numbers has characterized Peralta’s season, as he posted 200 Ks in 173.2 innings with a WHIP of 1.21. He may allow a few more walks and home runs than Severino has, but his ability to strike out hitters provides an element of surprise for the Mets’ hitters. Peralta’s aggressive pitching will help the Brewers establish the intensity needed, especially in the initial stages when the Mets are on offense.
Mets’ Meticulous Metrics
The New York Mets have been quite combative with their .247 batting average, and the displays of their offensive power are not lost as the team bludgeoned 205 home runs. The offensive arsenal is highly geared toward producing explosive hits, as evidenced by a slugging percentage of .416. However, the team’s OBP at .320 suggests that while the team can hit the ball, making contact and persisting on the bases is where the challenge is. This might impact overall game play as the focus might be on trying to swing for home runs rather than making timely runs.
Brewers’ Balanced Brigade
The Milwaukee Brewers present a slightly higher batting average of .248 and an OBP of .326, indicating a balanced approach between power hitting and strategic base running. With 177 home runs, their slugging isn’t far behind the Mets, but it’s their disciplined approach at the plate, evidenced by fewer walks allowed and a commendable ERA of 3.65, that subtly shifts the scales in their favor for this matchup.
Trends
New York Mets Betting Trends
Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
New York are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 33-47 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Mets’ last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 28 of Mets’ 80 last games at home
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Milwaukee are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers’ last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Brewers’ 81 last games at home
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Prediction
Another trend seen in this fight gives the victory to the Milwaukee Brewers based on recent performance, but the Mets’ lead will be hard to give up. The best option for those who wish to maintain their low risk and prepare for a tight battle is to look for bookmakers who would give the +1.5 Mets. Such bets on the total of pitchers’ strikeouts can also be promising, considering both the starters’ ability to get plenty of strikeouts.
Regarding the total, it would be rather curious for bookies to allocate a lot of money to the over bet, expecting more action than average from both teams in the wildcard game. Any bettor who doe not want to take chances should visit the best betting sites online to get the higher odds for better returns.
Score Prediction: Brewers 4, Mets 3.
Hilbert Mayer
Sports Writer
Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.
Published on: October 1, 2024
Last updated: March 30, 2025