Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres 10/1/24 – With the Major League Baseball season drawing towards the end of the postseason, the focus on the eagerly awaited National League Wild Card Game 1 between Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres begins. Such a fashionable match-up came about because the Braves finished the regular season at 89 wins and 73 losses. In contrast, the Padres did slightly better, with 93 wins and 69 losses. With so much at risk, it is but obvious that both the supporters and the odds makers are following one of the most revealing games in the MLB wildcard predictions today.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres 10/1/24
| When: | Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 8:38 PM ET |
|---|---|
| Where: | Petco Park |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Stream: | MLB.TV |
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres 10/1/24
| Team | RL | TOTAL | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | +1.5 (-180) | 7 over (+100) | +122 |  |
| Padres | -1.5 (+150) | 7 under (-117) | -146 | |
| ||||
Pick a time.
Pick a place.
We'll be there.#DigDeepATL pic.twitter.com/2pzJiYldQA— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) October 1, 2024
The Braves enter the playoffs as underdogs in this matchup, evidenced by the Moneyline and spread, while the Padres’ recent performance has positioned them as favorites. The odds reflect a tight contest with potential for a close scoreline, indicated by the narrow spread and total set around 7 runs.
Max Fried (11-10, 3.25 ERA) vs. Michael King (13-9, 2.95 ERA)
Max Fried is one of the starting pitchers for the Braves, and clearly, he does not lack endurance and stamina at all, posting a 3.25 ERA and WHIP of 1.16 in 174.1 innings pitched this season. With his well-executed strikeout rate of 166 batters and a walk rate of 57, Fried will help pace the pitching rotation against the aggressive Padres’ lineup. However, his task will be containing the team that has been good at their home and is riding on a high coming into playoffs.
It is worth noting that Michael King has been a pillar for the Padres, pitching a stunning 2.95 ERA and 201 strikeouts. The fact that it is a little higher than someone Fried’s walk count (63) might be important, especially looking at this Braves team that could take advantage of it. In this context, King gave up fewer home runs (17) than fried (13) despite pitching roughly the same number of innings. This shows that he knows how to keep the ball in the park, which is very important at the hitters’ haven Petco Park.
Braves’ Season of Persistence: A Look at the Numbers
Atlanta’s team statistics reflect a mix of robust power and occasional struggles. With a team batting average of .243 and an impressive 211 home runs, they can quickly change the game’s dynamic. However, their .309 OBP and .415 slugging percentage suggest they sometimes leave men on base without capitalizing fully. This aspect might become pivotal as they face a Padres team that has been more efficient offensively.
Padres’ Strategic Advantage: Analyzing the Stats
San Diego’s .263 batting average and .324 OBP highlight their ability to get on base and execute plays. Their balanced approach, coupled with a slightly higher slugging percentage (.420) compared to the Braves, indicates they might have the edge in converting scoring opportunities. Additionally, their pitchers have managed to maintain a respectable 3.86 ERA in a league where offense can dominate, suggesting their pitching staff might slightly edge out Atlanta’s in terms of depth.
Trends
Atlanta Braves Betting Trends
Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Atlanta are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Braves’ last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 48 of Braves’ 81 last games at home
San Diego Padres Betting Trends
Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
San Diego Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Padres are 39-42 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Padres’ last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Padres’ 81 last games at home
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Betting Prediction
Considering the statistical analysis and the current form of the teams, the Padres should be able to come out victorious in Game 1. Their batting average, on-base percentage, and statistics provided by Michael King’s ERA and KO power are just enough to overcome the Braves. Of course, it is needless to say that the Braves’ comeback performance and capacity to hit home runs are useful as well, hence this is a very exciting game to watch.
For betters who are single-minded to make gains, the Padres at -146 represent some risk to loss and margin of success expectations, while the over on total runs appears to be more attractive given the capability of the two teams to score. At all times look at the dynamics of the day and the form of players before placing any wagers with your best sportsbook online.
Score Prediction: Padres 4, Braves 3.
Hilbert Mayer
Sports Writer
Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.
Published on: October 1, 2024
Last updated: March 31, 2025