Dark Horses at The Open: Hatton, Koepka & Niemann Eye Upset

The Open has returned to Royal Portrush and it’s Scottie Scheffler everyone is chasing. The world number one is the clear favorite to win the championship by a wide margin of +450. This is closely followed by Rory McIlroy at +700. Other contenders include Jon Rahm, DeChambeau, and Tommy Fleetwood at +1200, +2000, and +2300, respectively. In contests sponsored by big companies like this, where wind, rain and the course itself inflict purposeful damage, the chaos bracket comes in clutch. The favorites may earn media buzz, but the best value for wagers sits further down the list of odds.

Checking out golf betting sites? You probably noticed that Tyrell Hatton, Brooks Koepka, and Joaquín Niemann are not getting the attention they deserve. Hatton is at +2800, Koepka is sitting between +4000 to +5000 and Niemann can be picked up at +5000. While these bets aren’t exactly long shots, they are risky. And that’s what makes them dangerous this week.

Let’s break it down player by player.

Tyrrell Hatton (+2800): Built for the Links

Tyrrell Hatton doesn’t have the look of a superstar. You won’t see him hit 350-yard drives either. What he does have however, is a strong history of performing well on links courses in the UK wind and a recent surge in solid finishes that put him in talks.

Hatton learned how to play the game on links courses in England. That is helpful at a place like Royal Portrush which requires strategy and ingenuity. He is one of the top iron players and scramblers in this range. He gets criticized for his temperament, but during those focused moments, the heat can be particularly intense. Not too long ago, he performed strongly in the US Open which showcases that his form is peaking at the right time.

With previous rounds at Portrush under his belt, he has mentioned in interviews that it does fit his eye. He knows how to manage the wind and, compared to the younger big-hitting players, he is comfortable dialing it back when the course demands. At +2800, he fits as both an outright and top-10 pick.

Brooks Koepka (+4500 to +5000): Major Threat, Always

Nothing seems to rattle Brooks Koepka. That’s his edge. The guy’s won five majors. He shows up ready to win at the big events, and even with all the injuries, rival leagues, and media nonsense, he continues to show up. Royal Portrush isn’t just your average PGA Tour stop; it rewards mastery of pacing oneself over four grueling days, something that is Koepka’s specialty.

He hasn’t been tearing it up this year, which is exactly why his odds are longer than usual. But don’t mistake that for a decline. There’s a reason Koepka is always peaking for majors. He knows how to dodge big numbers on the scorecard, tackles packed leaderboards, and embraces the grind. Koepka is downright dangerous when conditions turn sideways—and they often do at The Open.

What is so interesting about him at +5000 is his odds. Koepka doesn’t need a perfect week, just a solid one, and he’s right back in it. Very few players in this field can stand up to him mentally if he puts himself in contention by Saturday afternoon.

Joaquín Niemann (+5000): Quietly Lethal

Joaquín Niemann may not be a common name, but that is starting to shift. At just 26 years old, the Chilean has put together a season full of solid finishes and breakout performances. The length he tees off at makes him a threat on any course, but what makes him appealing at Portrush is his aggressiveness. The kind of bold play he has can create separation in a field full of conservative veterans.

Niemann’s price: +5000. To me, feels like a market lag. He’s already qualified via the Race to Dubai standings, he’s tackled pressure in recent international contests, and he’s shown he can hang with top tier competition. The question with Niemann has always been, consistency. Can he string four clean rounds without giving too much back?

I’d say moderate weather and early fairways would allow for a Saturday charge, and those are the conditions under which Niemann would thrive. There’s serious upside for him.

Why Volatility and Weather Make Live Betting a Smart Play in Links Golf

There’s another reason why bettors should keep an eye on these names: volatility. Links golf is filled with chaos such as bad bounces, strong gusts, and long putts, to name a few. That sort of disorder can floor competition and let lower-ranked golfers sneak in.

It’s also how live golf betting gains its strength. Suppose Hatton plays well and posts a -3 in the tough morning conditions. He may have had +2800 before the tournament, but if afternoon groups are struggling, his live odds will be much better. On the flip side, if Koepka is sluggish at the start but comes alive during the back nine, golf live betting allows you to grab a vastly better number than traditional wagering.

Don’t forget to check for updates on the wind, too. It tends to pick up in the afternoons at Portrush and if Hatton or Niemann have early Thursday tee times, they stand to benefit from a soft landing on Day 1, which is good for confidence and scoring position.

Odds Snapshot: The Current Landscape

Here’s where the field stands entering Round 1:

Scheffler and McIlroy are clearly the top-tier guys here, but everyone from +2500 to +5000 is in play if the wind kicks up or conditions start shifting. That’s where the real betting edge lies.

What To Watch on Thursday and Friday

If you’re tracking performance beyond just outright bets, here’s what to look for:

• Hatton: Short game stats. If he’s making putts from 6–12 feet and scrambling well, he’s in full control.
• Koepka: Bogey avoidance. If he’s keeping the card clean and hitting greens, he’s building momentum.
• Niemann: Driving accuracy. His long game is elite, but if he’s in too many bunkers, he’ll fall off fast.

It’s not about explosive rounds—it’s about avoiding disaster. That’s the key at The Open.

Frequently Asked Question

Q: How Weather Delays Impact Golf Odds at Sportsbooks?

A: Delays shift momentum and freeze lines. Books will often adjust pre-round odds and pause live betting until resumption. Players on hot streaks can lose rhythm, affecting next-hole performance and golf betting odds volatility.

Q: Is betting on dark horses smart or risky?

A: It’s a bit of both. The risk does tend to be higher; however, in this case, the payoff is usually much better. Dark horses can provide great value in top-5 or top-10 markets without having to win.

Q: How should I use live betting during The Open?

A: Reactively. Keep an eye on the weather. Bet when a hot player cools down or when the favorites are not performing well. Live markets let you take advantage of sharp shifts.

Q: Which stats matter most for Royal Portrush?

A: Scrambling, wind-affected tee to green performance, and putting, which helps, but I’d argue that the approach play overshadows this week.

Q: Does course history matter at The Open?

A: Of course, but less so than present form and adaptability to weather conditions. Portrush only hosted once recently in 2019, so his general links performance in other courses is probably a better indication.

The Wind Doesn’t Care About Favorites

Royal Portrush does not make things easy for any golfer. The combination of rough, bunkers, and that one terrible bounce can wreck a day’s work. No doubt, Scheffler and McIlroy are crowd favorite,s but like we’ve seen, they don’t always take the W.

And that’s where dark horses come in. Hatton brings his links track record. Koepka has major wins to his name. Niemann has the current momentum. All of them are sitting at odds that do not factor in their upside—and that’s where the opportunity lies. Intelligent bettors understand that the most hyped up athletes aren’t necessarily the ones who perform at the right time.

Pay special attention to the second-tier golfers as round one begins. That could just as easily be the value and the winner.

Hilbert Mayer

Sports Writer

Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.

Published on: July 17, 2025
Last updated: July 17, 2025

Golf