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Low Risk Baseball Betting Guide

Posted by: Hilbert Mayer
Baseball Betting Guide

Betting on a team can go either way where the individual can lose or gain financially. However, baseball gamblers can increase their chances of gaining from a bet in several ways by lowering the risk involved. The MLB season is long, with more than a dozen games per day. The numbers provide betting opportunities for fans. While watching a game is enjoyable and exciting, it gets even better if you gain financially from the game. Playing smart is vital with the help of considering low risk baseball betting. Below is a baseball betting guide that will help you make informed decisions when betting baseball games.

Listed Vs. Action Pitcher

The starting pitcher in a baseball game influences a game more than the other pitchers. Therefore, MLB bettors take on two options, listed or action, pitcher. Understanding the difference is essential because there are chances that the pitcher may get an injury or stays back to rest.  Action refers to the event that if either pitcher does not play, your bet is still on lock but at a revised price. The new revised price is dependent on what the new line opens registers. On the other hand, the listed pitcher means that your bet is invalid if the scheduled starting pitcher does not start.

It is a better idea to consider betting pitcher. It would be unfortunate to spend your time breaking down a game on the consideration of a pitching matchup only to have the pitcher not play.

Avoid Big Names for Low Risk Baseball Betting

Many a time, people bet when leaning towards the big names. When a big name is present, especially over “less” teams, many bet more and increase their stakes. While this will sound like the more logical thing to do, it is not. This is because the chances of a more significant loss are evident. This experience is especially true for popular teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, and Dodgers. Rather than listing Boston as a -150 favorite, individuals should instead post -170, knowing that gamblers will take the Red Sox either way.

There are instances when betting on the big teams can be a smart move. However, if a bettor consistently bets on the big favorites, they can burn your finances. The massive losses cannot only be worth the while if you are looking to lower your risk on baseball betting.

Place a Focus on Divisional Underdogs

This may be surprising to many as they may argue that underdogs tend to lose their matches. However, there is a significant difference between underdogs playing a divisional opponent as compared to non-divisional opponents. There is a unique aspect of baseball when playing divisional. This is because of teams in the same division play against each other nineteen times every year. It is because of this that divisional teams understand each other very well. This in-built familiarity levels the playing field, thus benefiting the underdog. Bettors have a better chance of betting in this line to lower risk.

Bet Against the Public

As compared to other sports, baseball is one of the best sports to bet against the public. By placing a focus on the most heavily bet team as opposed to the lopsided games of the day, contrarian bettors can take advantage of public bias. Gamblers can pounce on artificially inflated numbers, thus placing themselves in favor of the house. Keep in mind that the house always has the upper hand.

One of the best spots to bet against the public is with teams getting less than 20% of the money line bets. Since the year 2005, they have gone 1,259-1,864 (40.3%), but produced +76.15 units won because of the extra money payouts. Simply put, it is more beneficial to go contrarian in the most lopsided games of the day.

Baseball Betting Guide: Buy Low on Bad Teams After a Win

If a lousy team wins a game, conventional thinking says you should bet against them or even fade them in the next game. You would probably be asking why considering that it feels like they are making a comeback. This is because they are bad for a reason and that they are likely to regress to their losing streak.

On the other hand, teams in this spot tend to be incredibly profitable because they are so undervalued. Since the year 2005, teams with a win percentage of .400 or less coming off a win have won their next game 47.5% of the time. This translates to winning +159.03 units.

The above low risk baseball betting guide offers individuals the opportunity to minimize losses when betting on sports. This guide is essential more so for beginners looking to bet in baseball and want to start low. While many argue that the greater the risk, the more the value, it can be devastating to lose by a significant margin.