15 races, zero podium finishes, since debuting with Ferrari. For a 7-time World Champion like Lewis Hamilton, these statistics can be jarring.
Monza, this weekend. Ferrari’s home track. All eyes are on it, and the spotlight this time is on Hamilton even more compared to the previous races. This is not the only case. Hamilton is also overcoming emotional triumph. Hamilton is Ferrari, with the Niki Lauda 50 Tribute, and for this reason, Ferrari is doing a retro livery, and the homage lap pays time reflection on a more dominant time. But currently, Ferrari is not anywhere in close proximity to dominance.
Hamilton will start this race with a five–place grid penalty due to a yellow flag incident at Zandvoort. He has publicly described his season as an “emotional rollercoaster” and more recently explained how he didn’t expect Ferrari to be so “volatile”. If you are an avid follower of motorsport or looking to bet on motorsport online, Monza is certainly an event to keep an eye on. In this piece, we will be analyzing how Hamilton’s season has been, what other factors make this GP distinctive, how viewers should approach this race, and what implications this has on Ferrari’s future.
Track Record So Far: A Bumpy Ride in Red
A Rocky Start: Hamilton’s Performance So Far
No podium finishes in 15 races. In Hamilton’s first year with Ferrari, that stat demonstrates the gap between hopes and reality.
He came in with a lot of buzz, leaving Mercedes for Ferrari with the ambition to become the person to take Ferrari to glory. He sure has not done that. He has spent the majority of the year not winning races but in the midfield, fighting for top 10 finishes.
With over 40 points behind Charles Leclerc, Hamilton sits in sixth position in the standings. He has had moments of brilliance with a win in a sprint race in China and a couple of solid qualifying positions, but Ferrari has not provided consistency in race distances.
Hamilton’s criticism of the team’s performance is the most disturbing. He has said that the level of instability and the “extremely unpredictable” the car was a shock. After spending a decade with a well-run company, Mercedes, this year has been jarring.
Now, Hamilton is Monza-bound, starting five places further down the grid after receiving a penalty. That is yet another layer to the pressure added to the already tough season.
The Bigger Picture: Ferrari’s Struggles and McLaren’s Rise
Ferrari hasn’t just had a difficult year alongside Hamilton. No race wins in 2025. Verdict on Leclerc has been consistent, albeit with no dominance. Red Bull has dropped off, but McLaren has been able to fill the gap. Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris have been able to take that car to the front consistently.
In contrast, Ferrari is falling back into old habits. Slow, inconsistent new features, strategy issues, and nagging unreliability. At Monza, they will be serving a special one-off livery to honour Niki Lauda and his 1975 title. A nice touch for optics, but it will change nothing in lap times.
There is also the social pressure coming from the fans. Monza has a special significance for Ferrari. The “tifosi” are eager to see on-track results and not bathe in past glories. Hamilton is aware. He has talked about the burden of history here, and for the first time, he is feeling it.
Ferrari’s stagnation regarding McLaren’s progress is even more noticeable. From a Constructor’s Standpoint, Ferrari is hanging on to 3rd place. A year ago, the talk had switched to trying to Red Bull and now has changed to just trying to be relevant.
If something meaningful isn’t put together at Monza from both Hamilton and Ferrari, the risk of the entire season slipping into ‘2026 prep mode’ is inevitable.
What to Watch and Why It Matters
If you’re a fan—or planning to bet—here’s where to focus during Monza weekend.
Hamilton vs. Leclerc: This matchup tells us everything. If Hamilton closes the gap or even beats Leclerc in qualifying or race pace, that shows progress. If he gets blown away, it deepens questions about how well he’s adapted to the Ferrari car.
Qualifying performance: Because of the penalty, Hamilton will start five places lower than wherever he qualifies. So if he lands P5, he starts P10. That makes Q3 performance even more critical. He needs a strong Saturday to have any chance at a good Sunday.
Slipstream strategy: Monza is one of the few tracks where drivers routinely use team methods to create drafting opportunities. Ferrari has done this in the past, and they may use Leclerc or Hamilton to tow each other. Pay attention to how well—or poorly—they execute.
Tire management: Ferrari has struggled with tire strategies all season. Monza might be low-deg, but strategies are still fundamental. A correctly executed one-stop, with a little luck, could leapfrog cars on track. Otherwise, it’s a race killer.
Team mood: As with all others, listen closely to the body language and the radio. Ferrari is very emotional and the slightest shift could really affect the pace. The tribute to Lauda could be a unifying element that enhances performance. If the collective tension is high, then it will all collapse.
That all feeds into practical decisions: should you lean on Hamilton performance resurgence in your sports betting odds? Monitor the data, qualifying gaps, and tire strategies. If he capitalizes, value might emerge.
Looking Forward: Beyond Monza
Monza is more than just another stop on the F1 tour. It marks the beginning of the countdown to the 2026 season. Everything else is set to be completed for the season set to be completed for the 2025 season.
It’s a chance for Hamilton to get some Monza points, but also more than that. Can Monza lock Hamilton in a red costume? Is this a decision that aligns his career’s branding, or instead will it be a branding leap that he was just an average businessman?
Some factors will support the answer, and some will deny it. He has hit some of the dreams in the qualifying border, but sadly, scattered dreams are what he seems to be made of. If Monza becomes yet another gap of lost chance, that will keep this year’s failure to come back set in stone.
Ferrari getting focused is also a sign of the Leclerc-Hamilton duo’s strong years to come. If the prediction is accurate, the team will suffer consequences for not performing to expectations.
All of this makes Monza even more important than before. Everything from an impressive performance to finishing a ‘Race in France’ will matter. It will establish yet another pitiful win for Monza. Ferrari will be closer to the Finn that has pulled away a few F’s from their name.
Key Tips for Monza
Watch the Grid Drop Impact
For Hamilton, the penalty now makes overtaking compulsory. He needs to move up early enough, otherwise he runs the risk of getting stuck in the traffic(lines) that Monza´s long straights and open space assist in.
Check Free Practice Gaps
For FP1 and FP3, Hamilton´s lap times and Leclerc´s times need to be. If the gap shrinks with time, there is progress. If the gap widens with time, there is more trouble.
Stay Alert to Weather and Track Temps
Changes in track temperature, even small ones, impact tire wear. The performance level of Ferrari has been scattered here, which means that tire data could be life-saving for the race strategy.
Follow Team Radio
Listen for frustration or calm. Hamilton often reveals more on the radio than in interviews. Tone tells you if things are working internally.
Ignore the Livery—Watch the Results
The Ferrari tribute has a car that works. The performance, however, is not to be confused with the car and its aesthetic. The depth of performance issues is not solved by a shiny paint job.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What makes Monza different from other F1 tracks?
A: Monza is one of the fastest tracks on the calendar. It is characterized by the long straights, heavy braking zones, and lots of overtaking. Each team runs on ultra-low downforce packages to maximize the speed.
Q: Why is Hamilton under pressure at Monza?
A: Monza is Ferrari’s home race, and Hamilton is yet to perform. The fans want something spectacular. Plus, having a grid penalty and no podium finishes all season, something big needs to come out of this.
Q: How important is qualifying at Monza?
A: Very crucial. Although Monza is an overtaking-friendly track, starting from the back is much more dangerous. Hamilton’s penalty makes the situation worse. He needs to get as high as possible.
Q: What role does team strategy play at Monza?
A: Quite a bit. Slipstream tactics in qualifying and undercut/overcut options in the race are both crucial. Well-managed teams usually outrun opponents who are faster due to better coordination.
Q: How Do Parlays Work in Sports Betting?
A: Parlay betting in sports combines multiple individual bets into one. All parts must win for the bet to pay out. It increases potential winnings but also risk—if one part fails, the whole parlay loses.
Q: What’s the Niki Lauda tribute about?
A: Ferrari is honoring the 50th anniversary of Lauda’s 1975 championship. The car features a retro livery, and there’s a ceremonial lap planned. It’s meant to inspire—but expectations remain high.
Q: Can Ferrari still win a race this season?
A: Technically yes. But based on form, it’s unlikely without major luck or weather shakeups. Monza would be the symbolic place to do it—but the odds are long.
Q: Is Hamilton’s move to Ferrari a failure?
A: Too soon to say. He’s had a rough start, but 2026 could reset everything. Still, unless results come soon, people will question whether this move was worth it.
The Verdict from Monza
Let’s keep it simple. Lewis Hamilton’s debut season with Ferrari has not gone to plan. No podiums. Penalties. Disappointment.
Monza is a line in the sand. Ferrari’s home race, packed with emotion, and full of pressure. Hamilton doesn’t just need points—he needs to prove that this partnership with Ferrari can work. The Lauda tribute adds to the weight, but the real story will play out over 53 laps on Sunday.
Ferrari fans want signs of life. Hamilton wants a breakthrough. The grid drop makes it harder, but not impossible. If you’re planning to bet on motorsport online, watch qualifying, compare team performance trends, and track how this plays out emotionally—not just statistically.
From here, it’s either a step forward or a signal that 2025 is lost. And if you’re looking for where to place your next bet or follow the odds, head over to BetNow for up-to-date markets, lines, and race-week specials. Whether it’s redemption or reality-check—Monza will deliver answers.
Hilbert Mayer
Sports Writer
Hilbert Mayer is a professional sports writer, betting analyst, and content strategist with over 15 years of experience in the sports industry. Before focusing on sports betting analysis and handicapping, Hilbert worked as a sports writer for various news outlets, covering everything from game recaps to in-depth matchup features. Today, he specializes in MLB, NFL, March Madness, and UFC betting, combining his journalistic background with deep statistical expertise and real-world betting insights. His proven track record, sharp reads, and ability to break down complex matchups make him a trusted voice among both casual bettors and seasoned sharps.
Published on: September 5, 2025
Last updated: September 5, 2025